Suspicious network activity - someone already mining with ASICS?

[Frizz23]

- Ghash/s jumped from under 20.000 to almost 30.000 in the last few days -> price of Bitcoin tanked
- Ghash/s heading towards 20.000 again today -> price of Bitcoin went up again

So I would say: YES, there is *someone* mining with some sort of miracle hardware (not saying it's BFL *g*). And this *someone* might have overdone it a little - and now slowing it down a little so that it's not too obvious ...

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[chmod755]

And this *someone* might have overdone it a little - and now slowing it down a little so that it's not too obvious ...

Maybe it was just BFL testing the 1,500 Ghash/s rigs.

Would you stop ASICS, because it'd be too obvious? I don't understand it.
Maybe someone stopped a huge rig to avoid a 51% attack and making the mined BTC worthless? (looking at the "unknown" miners)

[RaTTuS]

BTC tanked because of the recent GLBSE stuff
rate went up because it's getting cold in thh northern hemisphere

[Keefe]

It's just random variance, lol.

Look at a 8-hour moving average:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
And here's a 24-hour moving average:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

You only think there's something going on because you're looking too closely. The shorter the period you average, the more you'll see the randomness.

And here's a simulation of the randomness you should expect even if the hashrate were constant round the clock:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/simulation/speed-lin-10k.png
Even with a 24-hour moving average, you should expect variances +/- 20%, so if the true hashrate is 25 TH, you can expect a 24-hour moving average chart to swing around between 20 TH to 30 TH normally.

Take your tinfoil hat off. 

[btctraderr]

It's just random variance, lol.

Look at a 8-hour moving average:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
And here's a 24-hour moving average:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

You only think there's something going on because you're looking too closely. The shorter the period you average, the more you'll see the randomness.

And here's a simulation of the randomness you should expect even if the hashrate were constant round the clock:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/simulation/speed-lin-10k.png
Even with a 24-hour moving average, you should expect variances +/- 20%, so if the true hashrate is 25 TH, you can expect a 24-hour moving average chart to swing around between 20 TH to 30 TH normally.

Take your tinfoil hat off. 

Yep +1. This and GLBSE.

[ice_chill]

It definitely did not jump from 20000 to 30000 in the last few days.

[abeaulieu]

- Ghash/s jumped from under 20.000 to almost 30.000 in the last few days -> price of Bitcoin tanked
- Ghash/s heading towards 20.000 again today -> price of Bitcoin went up again

So I would say: YES, there is *someone* mining with some sort of miracle hardware (not saying it's BFL *g*). And this *someone* might have overdone it a little - and now slowing it down a little so that it's not too obvious ...

BFL has said they will be using testnet in a box. So you will likely not see their ASICs mining too much on the main network, even if they had these prototypes up and running.

[rouhaud]

good news for you !!!





you can see here how many users they are on eclipse
https://eclipsemc.com/

Active Miners    1497
Current Speed:    1.73 TH/s

of course they are asic miner who mining !!!!

here the production line
http://www.butterflylabs.com/mini-rig-production-line/

[Morblias]

rouhaud, why do you keep linking those pics in every thread. They are old pics from mini rigs. Who cares?

[strideynet]

Bfl are dancing in circles looking at the results of their super powerfull Asics.

Bfl worker: all hail the ASIC gods! Muahahahhahahababahahha

Eleclipse at 1.54 terahash mauahhahahahahab bitcoin domination!

Bfl are a threat to the 51% danger line. I reckon they are sitting there slowly reaching the 51%.
I can imagine a underground bunker with a load of nutters on computers.

I'm looking at getting a jelly. I reckon if I pool mine the difficulty won't effect me! All that might effect me is the price drop which means most pools will drop reward per share!

[funnow]

Similar to Eclipse terrahash rate is also https://bitminter.com/ and more than 1200 workers.

[mufa23]

Inaba corrected me awhile back and said BFL doesn't do tests like this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=112285.msg1215509#msg1215509
Now bASIC and the other ASIC companies I'm not sure of...

Eleclipse at 1.54 terahash mauahhahahahahab bitcoin domination!

It's been that way for a month or so now (maybe longer?). I've been mining with EMC since January when it 400gh/s or so at the time. It's slowly been on the rise ever since. In fact, I think Gigavps just moved his miners over to EMC a couple of weeks ago. It has been gaining in popularity, but ever so slightly over the course of awhile. It's not like it got an extra terahash over the weekend.

[bitmar]

Inaba corrected me awhile back and said BFL doesn't do tests like this. They do a 24 (or less) hour test to make sure the hardware works. And they don't test it on the network. It's some sort of self test that's built into EasyMiner? I can't remember all the details, but I don't think this is BFL's doing. Now bASIC and the other ASIC companies I'm not sure of...

problem is that there are three companies offering ASIC (maybe more but we do not know it). If one of them starts mining, none of us will have the sure which of them increases the difficulty. It will be a war to finish the competition with false accusations. Currently ASIC ROI is about 10 days. It's a great opportunity to earn a lot of money(more than on preorders) and blame it on the competition. we are witnessing a war of specification now, this is not the last war.

[Graet]

sorry to drop some reality on the tinfoiledness
EMC's hashrate went close to 2thash when Ozcoin introduced fees and dropped from 2Thash to 800Ghash

all ASIC manufacturers have now said they will not test on mainnet...well covered in other threads

[jamesg]

sorry to drop some reality on the tinfoiledness
EMC's hashrate went close to 2thash when Ozcoin introduced fees and dropped from 2Thash to 800Ghash

all ASIC manufacturers have now said they will not test on mainnet...well covered in other threads

Another helpful tool when evaluating what is going on with the network is blockorigin. They use a detailed list of over 25 pools and crawl their respective sites to figure out what pools are finding what blocks.

Big swings in the hashrate can usually be attributed to luck of the entire network rather than ASICs or Botnets.

[abeaulieu]

sorry to drop some reality on the tinfoiledness
EMC's hashrate went close to 2thash when Ozcoin introduced fees and dropped from 2Thash to 800Ghash

all ASIC manufacturers have now said they will not test on mainnet...well covered in other threads

Another helpful tool when evaluating what is going on with the network is blockorigin. They use a detailed list of over 25 pools and crawl their respective sites to figure out what pools are finding what blocks.

Big swings in the hashrate can usually be attributed to luck of the entire network rather than ASICs or Botnets.

Thanks for that link giga. Hadn't seen that before.

If I were to test a large batch of ASICs with that magnitude of hashrate, I would solo mine with a few different addresses so in lists like that it would just be attributed to "Unknown" and the addresses would be different. That would be a pretty low key way to do it. However some of these ASIC companies might be more likely to generate an address with a not-so-subtle string like "bASIC" or "Avalon" in the address, just for more pre-orders.

[jamesg]

If I were to test a large batch of ASICs with that magnitude of hashrate, I would solo mine with a few different addresses so in lists like that it would just be attributed to "Unknown" and the addresses would be different.

Blockorigin usually reports about 12% of blocks found are unknown. This has been pretty consistent for months.

[bitmar]

If I were to test a large batch of ASICs with that magnitude of hashrate, I would solo mine with a few different addresses so in lists like that it would just be attributed to "Unknown" and the addresses would be different.

Blockorigin usually reports about 12% of blocks found are unknown. This has been pretty consistent for months.

for now yes. if one of ASIC companies will mining solo + tor / proxy has no way to find out which company increases the difficulty. right ?

[scrybe]

If I were to test a large batch of ASICs with that magnitude of hashrate, I would solo mine with a few different addresses so in lists like that it would just be attributed to "Unknown" and the addresses would be different.

Blockorigin usually reports about 12% of blocks found are unknown. This has been pretty consistent for months.

for now yes. if one of ASIC companies will mining solo + tor / proxy has no way to find out which company increases the difficulty. right ?

ASIC mining through TOR?

Yeah, that would work well, suuuuure...

[bitmar]

If I were to test a large batch of ASICs with that magnitude of hashrate, I would solo mine with a few different addresses so in lists like that it would just be attributed to "Unknown" and the addresses would be different.

Blockorigin usually reports about 12% of blocks found are unknown. This has been pretty consistent for months.

for now yes. if one of ASIC companies will mining solo + tor / proxy has no way to find out which company increases the difficulty. right ?

ASIC mining through TOR?

Yeah, that would work well, suuuuure...

There are many possibilities to anonymously mining. Like VPN with bitcoind on the other side of the globe.