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[CanIHazBitcoin777]

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[joksim299]

This is the dumbest strategy to date.

Now don't lecture me about the Gambler's fallacy problem

Every bet is independent.

[Echye]

This can be done in dice sites with 1%/0.5% house edge, but you will need a bot to stop on win and switch, as with what I know none of the dice sites has this option on their autopilot

[CanIHazBitcoin777]

This is the dumbest strategy to date.

Now don't lecture me about the Gambler's fallacy problem

Sorry but I did simulations with 200,000 rolls, and it works.  I either end up with -0.01% loss or with 7.7% gain, so I think its a perfect strategy for low risk/ low reward gamblers.

The average consecutive loss/win there is ~ 15-17, so a 20 consecutive trigger is rare, so the risk to bet on that is low.

This can be done in dice sites with 1%/0.5% house edge, but you will need a bot to stop on win and switch, as with what I know none of the dice sites has this option on their autopilot

Well it is easy with a bot, but you dont necessarly need to switch. I use Satoshidice and they dont have switch, so I just play off the consecutive losses and then increase the bet.

[ndnh]

Same thing like prerolls. Just wastes extra time.



Edit:

Sorry but I did simulations with 200,000 rolls, and it works.  I either end up with -0.01% loss or with 7.7% gain, so I think its a perfect strategy for low risk/ low reward gamblers.

The average consecutive loss/win there is ~ 15-17, so a 20 consecutive trigger is rare, so the risk to bet on that is low.

Gambling is never positive EV. It would be tending towards -1.9% of your wagered amount.


Edit2: Simply understand every single bet is completely independent. Imagine there are 1000 sites, and you make the first 10 bets on 10 different sites, you will understand that the strategy makes no real sense. It only appears to.  


Edit3: For 7.7% gain, simply bet 7.7% of the bankroll till you have one win more than the loss. Statistically better chance than the above method, and you can save on time and electricity.

I think SatoshiDice has lower edge on bets with very low chance? Still it is 1.9x standard house edge.

[crytoboost]

I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak, why we go to satoshidice when there are so many dice site available so that method only work with specific dice site.

[ndnh]

I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak,

Rule 2 in the book is never chase your losses. 

[CanIHazBitcoin777]

I put out my strategy simulator I made, you can try it out if you want, I rolled out simulations on easily 200,000- 2,000,000 bets and it does hold up to those wins.

I also think the gambler fallacy is not what it looks like, it is certainly misinterpreted.

I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak,

Rule 2 in the book is never chase your losses. 

Yes because with any type of recovery strategy, the risk increases faster than the reward and you will end up losing more.

You have to let the losses go in order to stop losing more!

[euripide]

you use your strategy to the simulator? Don't use to real gambling site? Your stat are only "simulated" ? Why don't test directly to one dice with 1 satoshi minimum bet?

[CanIHazBitcoin777]

Every bet is independent.

That is true, but it is you who dont understand the gambler's fallacy, it is very misinterpreted.

Individually the bets are random and independent, but collectively they tend to built up a pattern.


Even though if you roll 20 heads in a row, it is more likely that the 21st will be tails. Of course next time it might be 21 heads in a row, but its all random.

It's not just the individual outcome that is random, but the cluster too, so even though if you have 20 heads in a row, it is morel likely that the 21st will be tails, it is not true always.

By betting tails after the 20th, you might win once, but you might lose another time. But it gives a bigger certainty anyway than just naked betting randomly.

you use your strategy to the simulator? Don't use to real gambling site? Your stat are only "simulated" ? Why don't test directly to one dice with 1 satoshi minimum bet?

I use both. The simulator is to configure my strategy, and when I go live then I have a plan.

There are few sites that allow 1 satoshi bets, but 100 satoshi is also affordable because the small inter-bets are not that important.

The key of the strategy relies on the big bet after the consecutives.

[ndnh]

Well, tbh I have a stupid strategy too. But I am sure it is still negative EV.

But the good thing with my strategy is if the odds are say 1% to roll a >50 and 99% to roll <50 or the other way round, I make a profit. Cashes out on all consecutive same-sided bets but if it keep switching hi and lo, lose lose lose..
Surprisingly I found a few who were following the same thing here. (thought it was just my own one, lol)

I put out my strategy simulator I made, you can try it out if you want, I rolled out simulations on easily 200,000- 2,000,000 bets and it does hold up to those wins.

Yeah, coz of variance it could show anywhere from a massive profit to a massive loss.

I also think the gambler fallacy is not what it looks like, it is certainly misinterpreted.

LOL, you did. xD

I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak,

Rule 2 in the book is never chase your losses.  

Yes because with any type of recovery strategy, the risk increases faster than the reward and you will end up losing more.

You have to let the losses go in order to stop losing more!

True.
But apply it in this case. With this strategy too the risk is 1.9% more than the reward.

[ndnh]

Individually the bets are random and independent, but collectively they tend to built up a pattern.

Guess what? They don't. It is human tendency to connect things that aren't.

Every single thing is distinct and it is impossible to accurately predict the next roll. There is no trend. No such rule that all rolls would be equally distributed either though you might assume they are.


Edit: To give clarity just check how SatoshiDice's provably fair system works. IIRC, they are just adding two random numbers and that is it.

[CanIHazBitcoin777]

Yeah, coz of variance it could show anywhere from a massive profit to a massive loss.

With 500,000 rolls the maximum loss I simulated was about 36%, and I won more times usually. In real life gambling I never even experienced a 10% loss ever since I use this strategy.

I depends on luck too, I dont deny that.

LOL, you did. xD

No I was explaining that the official explanation of the fallacy is short sided, its more to it just than the independent outcomes. Because the cluster is randomized too, so weather the odds are set to any amount, the distribution tends to follow the variance.

Or in other words , except a few black swans, the distribution is also contained to a local variance and it can be exploited to control risk better.

Example: if you flip a coin 100 times, the odds of being tails 10 times is 0.09765625%  and yet the 11th roll  is less likely to be tails, but not impossible.So eventually the heads have to come, so we can say that the local probability can vary wehereas the overally probability remains constant. Now this is no way a guarantee, because somehow the 12 consecutive tails have to come too, but then the local probabilities just reshuffle, randomly.

This is a common mathematical phenomena. I think its called local probability distribution:
http://pitt.edu/~druzdzel/psfiles/flairs06.pdf

But apply it in this case. With this strategy too the risk is 1.9% more than the reward.

Hey its random anyway, but you have to understand that based on odds, somebody can come out a net winner even after 100,000 rolls. It all depends on the local distribution , how it gets shuffled.

And those who are losers, at least lose less than they normally would with other strategies.

[shanem]

This method takes too long to win a little bit of satoshi and every bet is independent of the previous.
In theory, you can lose 30 times in a row and you cannot blame that the gambling site is rigged.

[CanIHazBitcoin777]

This method takes too long to win a little bit of satoshi and every bet is independent of the previous.
In theory, you can lose 30 times in a row and you cannot blame that the gambling site is rigged.

I never said that this method will guarantee you anything. Gambling is a game of luck, we all know that.

It's all based on luck and probabilities, and the probability of losing 30 times in a row is ultra unlikely, I would not expect that to happen even in 50 million bets, so we can say that its unlikely.

I choose then 20 because I was looking at 200,000 bets, but if that is also too much for you then you can lower that.

If you bet manually, say 200 times then you will likely stay below 10 consecutive heads/tails , and if you bet on 20, you might never reach that.

You should configure the strategy to what you use.

[scriptman]

Thanks for sharing anyways.

These are nothing new though.... it's the same as the old double bet strategy on Roulette.

Good luck with your gambling

[CanIHazBitcoin777]

Thanks for sharing anyways.

These are nothing new though.... it's the same as the old double bet strategy on Roulette.

Good luck with your gambling

But the roulette system is not 50%, its something like 48%, which is not good for this strategy.

I specifically said that this one works best in 50% games to maximize the odds for us.

I am testing a modified version now, and it might be ready soon

[trafficolaa]

I don't believe in any strategy regarding dice site an lucky person can with any strategy i am always go with 49.50% win with 2x payout and i like to play with that mostly i use for a session not to play for long term and take withdraw after done if i lose never try to recover and come with new deposit for next session other day so that i will advice keep believe in your self never try others strategy for winning on dice site.

[bytezero]

I think your strategic is bad and that you don't have any idea of what your are doing. In the long run it is impossible to make profit, because in 100 rolls you lose 51 and win 49, so you are losing money already, after 1000 more loss and in 10000 you will have lost everything you have.

[leex1528]

So your betting strategy is basically the definition of gamblers fallacy?  How would you expect us not to mention it?  There is no way you studied stats and came up with this, I studied stats for 1 year and I can tell you this is pretty much what you learn on day 1, "Are the events independent on one another or not"

In your case, they are not, so you are doing nothing with stats at all.