Block Reward Halving + BFL Equipment = What for Mining / Price In Your Opinion?

[molecular]

Day 365: No more GPUs or FPGAs hashing. Bitcoin network hashing rate: 1250 TH/s.

How did I work out the final network hash rate?

Assuming we are currently hashing at 25 TH/s (ref. 2), with current equipment generally providing 20 (MH/s)/W (ref. 1), that means that mining is currently consuming 1250,000 W of power. BFL will provide 1 (GH/s)/W (ref. 3), so if the power consumption stays constant, we should see the network hash rate rise to 1250 TH/s.

(However, many miners might just leave the game. However, many miners might join the game.)

References:
(1) https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison
(2) http://blockchain.info/stats
(3) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=114292.0

I think that's not a bad way to estimate. This should work out pretty well in the long run (all else being equal, especially exchange rate).

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[bitfair]

Day 365: No more GPUs or FPGAs hashing. Bitcoin network hashing rate: 1250 TH/s.

How did I work out the final network hash rate?

Assuming we are currently hashing at 25 TH/s (ref. 2), with current equipment generally providing 20 (MH/s)/W (ref. 1), that means that mining is currently consuming 1250,000 W of power. BFL will provide 1 (GH/s)/W (ref. 3), so if the power consumption stays constant, we should see the network hash rate rise to 1250 TH/s.

(However, many miners might just leave the game. However, many miners might join the game.)

References:
(1) https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison
(2) http://blockchain.info/stats
(3) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=114292.0

I think that's not a bad way to estimate. This should work out pretty well in the long run (all else being equal, especially exchange rate).

Or perhaps to put it an easier way: BFL promises a 50x rise in (energy) efficiency over current technologies -> network hash rate eventually rises by 50x.

[meebs]

at the end of the day there will need to be a given return on hardware investment for mining to be "profitable".

Just because you aren't earning 1%/day return does NOT mean mining is not profitable.

Say somebody spends $1000 on a asic unit and is able to earn $5/day. by almost all other measures that is a GREAT return as it is $1825/year.  Even halfing that it is still not that bad at all.

Of course the lifecycle of the units and resale value will greatly determine what that minimum profitablility level is.

[molecular]

at the end of the day there will need to be a given return on hardware investment for mining to be "profitable".

Just because you aren't earning 1%/day return does NOT mean mining is not profitable.

Say somebody spends $1000 on a asic unit and is able to earn $5/day. by almost all other measures that is a GREAT return as it is $1825/year.  Even halfing that it is still not that bad at all.

Of course the lifecycle of the units and resale value will greatly determine what that minimum profitablility level is.

at some point, I guess, it will be like it turned out to be with GPU: your profitability will be determined by your power cost and the change of the exchange rate.

Clearly, the bulk of the high profit is to be made by early recipients of the hardware (who take a higher risk when ordering, so it's fair). Later on, with fierce hw-maker competition, ASIC prices might drop sharply and the determining factor will be power cost.

So: if you're early enough "in the queue" (I'm wildly guessing order date 8/15 could be the cutoff), you'll make money right away (the bulk within 2 weeks upon receiving your hardware and enough to make up for your hardware cost). If not, it will be a slow grind and your energy prices will decide wether or not you make back your investment or not.

Correct?

[Stephen Gornick]

This is a prediction, and predictions are hard -- especially about the future.  Nobody knows, but I'll take a stab at it.

Day 0 is expected roughly around November 30th, plus or minus a week:

Day T-10: Four of the five ASIC manufacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.
Day T-8: Difficulty of 3.5 million and exchange rate of $15 mean profitability is still acceptable for GPU miners paying average electric rates or less.
Day T-5: A lot more "N Ghash/s for sale" listings will start to appear [Edit: as-in total liquidation of N GHash/s of capacity]

Looks like the first three are coming in as being fairly accurate.

[Crypt_Current]

This is a prediction, and predictions are hard -- especially about the future.  Nobody knows, but I'll take a stab at it.

Day 0 is expected roughly around November 30th, plus or minus a week:

Day T-10: Four of the five ASIC manufacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.
Day T-8: Difficulty of 3.5 million and exchange rate of $15 mean profitability is still acceptable for GPU miners paying average electric rates or less.
Day T-5: A lot more "N Ghash/s for sale" listings will start to appear [Edit: as-in total liquidation of N GHash/s of capacity]

Looks like the first three are coming in as being fairly accurate.

Awesomely on-point predictions.

What is the "N Ghash/s for sale" though?  Are you referring to mining contracts?  Where are these listings?

[Stephen Gornick]

What is the "N Ghash/s for sale" though?  Are you referring to mining contracts?

No, just that instead of parting out systems entire rigs are sold, in quantity ("everything must go").  So to make it easier, the title for the seller's listing simply refers to the Ghash/s capacity rather than describing the components (e.g., 3X5970).

Here's an example:

What came first was that this is a set of rigs with 2.4 Ghash/s capacity,
and secondary was that the 2.4 Ghash is coming from eight 5830s.

 - http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitcoin-mining-server-2400-mhash-s-8x-Sapphire-ATI-Radon-5830-Video-Cards-/121019863443?pt=COMP_EN_Servers&hash=item1c2d589193

[Crypt_Current]

What is the "N Ghash/s for sale" though?  Are you referring to mining contracts?

No, just that instead of parting out systems entire rigs are sold, in quantity ("everything must go").  So to make it easier, the title for the seller's listing simply refers to the Ghash/s capacity rather than describing the components (e.g., 3X5970).

Here's an example:

What came first was that this is a set of rigs with 2.4 Ghash/s capacity,
and secondary was that the 2.4 Ghash is coming from eight 5830s.

 - http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitcoin-mining-server-2400-mhash-s-8x-Sapphire-ATI-Radon-5830-Video-Cards-/121019863443?pt=COMP_EN_Servers&hash=item1c2d589193

Aha, i see.  Lolz @ windoze 7 & hard drives.
The case is... cool!  HA.
Makes me feel good about my baby frankensteins.  I would not even pay $500 for this setup.

[DoomDumas]

This link from ebay shows me this ??  (Im in Canada) Like previous poster said, b/c Win7 and HD ??

Unfortunately, access to this particular item has been blocked due to legal restrictions in some countries. We are blocking your viewing in an effort to prevent restricted items from being displayed. Regrettably, in some cases, we may prevent users from accessing items that are not within the scope of said restrictions because of limitations of existing technology. Please accept our apologies for any inconvenience this may cause, and we hope you may find other items of interest on eBay.

??

Stephen, Very nice post !  Pretty accurate actually
I agree except that I bet that some ASIC will be delivered before 2013 !

[Unacceptable]

This link from ebay shows me this ??  (Im in Canada) Like previous poster said, b/c Win7 and HD ??

Unfortunately, access to this particular item has been blocked due to legal restrictions in some countries. We are blocking your viewing in an effort to prevent restricted items from being displayed. Regrettably, in some cases, we may prevent users from accessing items that are not within the scope of said restrictions because of limitations of existing technology. Please accept our apologies for any inconvenience this may cause, and we hope you may find other items of interest on eBay.

??

Stephen, Very nice post !  Pretty accurate actually
I agree except that I bet that some ASIC will be delivered before 2013 !

I sure hope so 

Also,I think we WILL see close to $20 BTC by 1st quarter 2013 

[Stephen Gornick]

Day 14: Mining operators are still seeing electric bills from the previous month's consumption.  Even more anger, vitriol and gnashing of teeth.

That prediction was pretty easy to make, and pissed off miners who never made it to break-even is where we are at now:

Let us Individuals have the Mining and all you Companies keep doing the Hardware.  It's things like this that taking away opportunities for the Small Individuals that would like to have a Nice Hobby and Make a Little money as well!! 

PPS and DGM miners are not being paid fairly. If the ENTIRE BTC network was one giant proportoinal pool, we would ALL get our FAIR share and make shady pool owners and pool hopping a thing of the past.

[BitMonkey]

I like rehashing (pun intended haha) these old threads and predictions.