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Author Topic: Cryptografic currencys in future  (Read 1858 times)
ajareselde
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October 18, 2012, 04:29:49 PM
 #1

All this ASIC talks got me thinking, after they come , whole playground will change, game will change, and only a hand few of speculators that are right will prosper.

But this isnt the only gamechanger, imagine when (in a few years time) all BTC is mined, where will we go, what will we do ?

If u think the market will be satisfied with ONE crypto coin; Better think again, all those GPU farms out there, all those supporters mining day after day with their precious gaming cards...
There will be "thirst for blood", "thirst for another" bitcoin.

I am in no doubt at all that BTC will be accepted like a paying value, but its not all there is to it, for we did not create bitcoins out of thin air, it costed us a small fortune to get all that equipment, and hell of a lot of time and patience, and therefor it MUST have a value.

There wasnt a timeframe like this since bitcoin started, for  now is the time of speculators and theorists. will our comunity sink or float?
By "us" i dont think of only bitcoin supporters, coz, as i said, i know bitcoin will survive, maybe even shine brighter than ever, but what will become of all us miners, seeking a different way of work,beliefs.. life .. ?

How far will the alt-chains last? Merge-mined will die out eventualy, atleast in a financial value means..

We are , or will be , in desperate need of a new "Meka" , a new project, and i dare say it that current alt-chains yet did not prooved themselfs as a lasting thing, not yet ..

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October 18, 2012, 05:56:30 PM
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Mining isn't a job bro, so don't treat it like one and you'll be just fine.

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October 18, 2012, 06:37:56 PM
 #3

All this ASIC talks got me thinking, after they come , whole playground will change, game will change, and only a hand few of speculators that are right will prosper.

But this isnt the only gamechanger, imagine when (in a few years time) all BTC is mined, where will we go, what will we do ?

If u think the market will be satisfied with ONE crypto coin; Better think again, all those GPU farms out there, all those supporters mining day after day with their precious gaming cards...
There will be "thirst for blood", "thirst for another" bitcoin.

I am in no doubt at all that BTC will be accepted like a paying value, but its not all there is to it, for we did not create bitcoins out of thin air, it costed us a small fortune to get all that equipment, and hell of a lot of time and patience, and therefor it MUST have a value.

There wasnt a timeframe like this since bitcoin started, for  now is the time of speculators and theorists. will our comunity sink or float?
By "us" i dont think of only bitcoin supporters, coz, as i said, i know bitcoin will survive, maybe even shine brighter than ever, but what will become of all us miners, seeking a different way of work,beliefs.. life .. ?

How far will the alt-chains last? Merge-mined will die out eventualy, atleast in a financial value means..

We are , or will be , in desperate need of a new "Meka" , a new project, and i dare say it that current alt-chains yet did not prooved themselfs as a lasting thing, not yet ..

Get your facts straight buddy. Mining bitcoin will go on for at least the next several decades. Not "just a few years".

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October 18, 2012, 07:50:41 PM
 #4

Another way to think about bitcoin mining is that whatever you "invest" in mining is actually an investment in a startup company, lets call it the "bitcoin financial network" or BFN Corporation.  It is as if you invested in a startup company that runs a financial network based on the bitcoin concept.

The coins you get are your shares of ownership in BFN Corp.  You can sell your shares immediately, or hold on to them and hope they increase in value as the network as a whole increases in value.

As more people mine, the total volume of investments (ie. hashes) increases and the value of the shares (ie. coins) received for the same investment (mining effort) decreases.   More widespread use and adoption of the network increases the value of each share/coin, which offsets the decrease in shares/coins received for some fixed investment of mining. 

If a serious technical flaw is found, or people stop using the bitcoin network en mass for some other reason, your shares/coins will lose most of their value - the equivalent to BFN Corp. going out of business.

If BFN Corp. ends up replacing Visa, Amex, Mastercard and the US Mint, then those shares you hold of BFN Corp. could become somewhat more valuable.

At this point in time a bitcoin is more than just a unit of account - for early adopters the coins they save are like pre-IPO shares in a nascent financial network.

But perhaps I'm off topic.  What do I see when I see the future of cryptographic currencies?  It's electric heating.  Room heaters will come with built-in wifi and be stuffed with liquid cooled ASICs.  The cost of heating your room will be offset slightly by the beer money that trickles in to your bitcoin account from each heater.  That's my utopian vision of a future where bitcoin wins, my dystopian vision of the future where bitcoin loses is well covered by George Orwell in his book.

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ajareselde
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October 18, 2012, 11:02:06 PM
 #5

Mining isn't a job bro, so don't treat it like one and you'll be just fine.

in 2 years i am mining i earned about 3.5 times more than with my day time job, so i definetly cosider it a job... bro
its addictive, u start with 300mh card and end up with 15gh farm..  not having to pay for electricity really boosted my earnings, but with those asics im troubled what to use my farm for now.

if difficulty realy goes in the sky, im sure aint gonna force my rigs if it doesnt pay even for maintenence, and im sure others wont also.

and about btc being all mined up, can anyone tell me please whats a calculated last block time?

thanks

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October 18, 2012, 11:50:14 PM
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Mining isn't a job bro, so don't treat it like one and you'll be just fine.

in 2 years i am mining i earned about 3.5 times more than with my day time job, so i definetly cosider it a job... bro
its addictive, u start with 300mh card and end up with 15gh farm..  not having to pay for electricity really boosted my earnings, but with those asics im troubled what to use my farm for now.

if difficulty realy goes in the sky, im sure aint gonna force my rigs if it doesnt pay even for maintenence, and im sure others wont also.

and about btc being all mined up, can anyone tell me please whats a calculated last block time?

thanks

there is no such thing as a "last block" it is just that the coins created by blocks slowly decreases over time.


ajareselde
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October 19, 2012, 04:42:01 PM
 #7

Mining isn't a job bro, so don't treat it like one and you'll be just fine.

in 2 years i am mining i earned about 3.5 times more than with my day time job, so i definetly cosider it a job... bro
its addictive, u start with 300mh card and end up with 15gh farm..  not having to pay for electricity really boosted my earnings, but with those asics im troubled what to use my farm for now.

if difficulty realy goes in the sky, im sure aint gonna force my rigs if it doesnt pay even for maintenence, and im sure others wont also.

and about btc being all mined up, can anyone tell me please whats a calculated last block time?

thanks

there is no such thing as a "last block" it is just that the coins created by blocks slowly decreases over time.



lol i wasnt even aware of that, all this time i was thinking that there will be a last block.
i wonder what effect it will have on confirmations, coz it will probably be insane difficulty, and slow block solving

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October 19, 2012, 10:24:03 PM
 #8

Another way to think about bitcoin mining is that whatever you "invest" in mining is actually an investment in a startup company, lets call it the "bitcoin financial network" or BFN Corporation.  It is as if you invested in a startup company that runs a financial network based on the bitcoin concept.

When discussing my mining with a non-tech head friend lately, I stumbled across the analogy of BTC/LTC mining rigs simply being like a distributed main frame of a commercial bank. With the mining operations simply being the equivelent of processing the transactions. So as a processor, I get paid for how many transactions I can process for the banking mainframe.

My mate was very impressed with that answer and it made sense to him. Do others agree with this simplistic sales pitch?

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October 19, 2012, 10:50:50 PM
 #9

I think the extending confirmation time of BTC will eventually proove a stumbling block. I can envisage a time, say 5~10 years in the future, were blocks may take days to confirm. I think that this will drive BTC to be primarily high value transactions only as they will be very secure however people will not want to wait days for coonfirmations. This is were a faster currency, like LTC, can step in and fill the relatively rapid transaction space.

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October 20, 2012, 02:08:39 AM
 #10

I think the OP needs to get more educated on how bitcoin works and is designed to work for many years before trying to come to any "intelligent" conclusions about the future.

Start at the beginning and then once you are up to speed let's discuss.

Given your account was created mid 2011, I would have thought by now you would have had a better idea on how bitcoin works in the long-term.

 Grin

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October 20, 2012, 02:18:46 AM
 #11

I think the extending confirmation time of BTC will eventually proove a stumbling block. I can envisage a time, say 5~10 years in the future, were blocks may take days to confirm. I think that this will drive BTC to be primarily high value transactions only as they will be very secure however people will not want to wait days for coonfirmations. This is were a faster currency, like LTC, can step in and fill the relatively rapid transaction space.

In 5 to 10 years blocks will be every 10 minutes.  In 50 to 100 years if Bitcoin is still around blocks will be every 10 minutes.  Where do you get this idea that blocks will take longer and longer?
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October 20, 2012, 03:21:17 AM
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Miners will still be able to mine for bitcoins when all the bitcoins are mined. That is what transaction fees are for.
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October 20, 2012, 05:35:00 AM
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In 5 to 10 years blocks will be every 10 minutes.  In 50 to 100 years if Bitcoin is still around blocks will be every 10 minutes.  Where do you get this idea that blocks will take longer and longer?

How many transactions can be rolled into a single block?  In 100 years if Bitcoin does reach public acceptance couldn't it be seen that there could be too many transactions for single blocks to happen so you have to roll over to the next block etc. for the initial transaction?  **more a real question here about how the system works at this level**

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October 20, 2012, 08:54:15 AM
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How many transactions can be rolled into a single block? 

Currently size limit is 1 MiB, which is approximately 4000 250-byte transactions. So ~6.6 transactions per second. Half a million transactions per day.

Bitcoin protocol isn't set in stone. If there is demand block size can be increased. It's also possible to make it more scalable.

Changes like this need approval of majority of miners, but it is definitely doable.



There are cryptocurrency designs where each block pays 50 coins forever. It is not inflationary, contrary to common beliefs. (Asymptotically inflation is zero.) And in that case miners' rewards are going to be huge if they are supporting huge economy. IIRC Tenebrix was based on this approach.

I think this design is superior since miners won't have to strangle activity with fees.

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October 20, 2012, 09:12:40 AM
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I think this design is superior since miners won't have to strangle activity with fees.

There is no free lunch. Security has to be supported somehow. You can pay for work by taxing spenders (txn fee), taxing savers (block reward), or some combination of both.

The focus should be on reducing the total tax burden through smarter security, not on shifting the tax burden from one group to another.

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October 20, 2012, 09:25:50 AM
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There is no free lunch. Security has to be supported somehow. You can pay for work by taxing spenders (txn fee), taxing savers (block reward), or some combination of both.

With system I described inflation after N yeas is 1/N. So it goes down to zero with time, and so does tax on savers.

However, if we assume that there is some coin loss (from lost wallets, mistakes, or maybe intentional part of design) monetary base is going to be stable.

So essentially miners do not take money by taxing savers, instead they replace lost coins.

On the other hand, if no new coins are produced and some coins are lost, savers will profit from doing nothing, which isn't healty.

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October 20, 2012, 10:25:41 AM
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There is no free lunch. Security has to be supported somehow. You can pay for work by taxing spenders (txn fee), taxing savers (block reward), or some combination of both.

With system I described inflation after N yeas is 1/N. So it goes down to zero with time, and so does tax on savers.

However, if we assume that there is some coin loss (from lost wallets, mistakes, or maybe intentional part of design) monetary base is going to be stable.

So essentially miners do not take money by taxing savers, instead they replace lost coins.

On the other hand, if no new coins are produced and some coins are lost, savers will profit from doing nothing, which isn't healty.


Appreciation compensates savers for the possibility of loss. You would like to take this compensation away and distribute it to someone else. That is a tax.

To reiterate, the focus should be on reducing the need for taxation, not arguing about whose money to expropriate.

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October 20, 2012, 10:28:41 AM
 #18

once asic there is ltc for the gpu farms.

Sorry El Cabron, you are banned from posting or sending personal messages on this forum.
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October 20, 2012, 06:54:42 PM
 #19

There is no free lunch. Security has to be supported somehow. You can pay for work by taxing spenders (txn fee), taxing savers (block reward), or some combination of both.

The focus should be on reducing the total tax burden through smarter security, not on shifting the tax burden from one group to another.

Appreciation compensates savers for the possibility of loss. You would like to take this compensation away and distribute it to someone else. That is a tax.

To reiterate, the focus should be on reducing the need for taxation, not arguing about whose money to expropriate.

This is exactly what ppcoin project is trying to achieve, to demonstrate that work is not required to secure block chain, thus further reducing the cost burden on users of future cryptocurrencies.

J. Becker et al in a lengthy and possibly prejudiced paper 'Can We Afford Integrity by Proof-of-Work?' argued that Bitcoin is not affordable compared to existing infrastructure. I don't necessarily agree with that as Bitcoin may be affordable enough but high energy consumption is one of the very few legitimate criticisms on Bitcoin in my opinion.
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October 20, 2012, 07:51:03 PM
 #20

Appreciation compensates savers for the possibility of loss.

Seriously? People who do not lose their savings are compensated for what sloppy users do?

This is anti-insurance.

Quote
You would like to take this compensation away and distribute it to someone else. That is a tax.

I don't think it's possible to take away something one never had.

You can as well call food prices "a tax on hunger" or something.

Quote
To reiterate, the focus should be on reducing the need for taxation, not arguing about whose money to expropriate.

This issues are orthogonal. We can argue about whose money to expropriate while trying to reduce the need for taxation.

Quote
This is exactly what ppcoin project is trying to achieve

Doesn't ppcoin incentivize mining with interest rate? Then it falls under "robbing savers" category.

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