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Author Topic: New Indicator: Futures  (Read 2071 times)
myself
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October 18, 2012, 08:19:08 PM
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how come the futures are always ahead of the trend ? when mtgoxUSD it was above 12 the futures got above 13 now is head lower at sell 11.45 buy 11.2

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 18, 2012, 08:41:04 PM
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This maybe a result of the larger spread on the futures exchange (icbit.se?).

To make up for reliable indicator the futures must be ahead of the trend a large number of times, most of the time (more then 50% of the time).
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October 18, 2012, 08:52:08 PM
 #3

how come the futures are always ahead of the trend ? when mtgoxUSD it was above 12 the futures got above 13 now is head lower at sell 11.45 buy 11.2

A key question here is how far in the future is the contract being traded?

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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October 18, 2012, 09:02:55 PM
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how come the futures are always ahead of the trend ? when mtgoxUSD it was above 12 the futures got above 13 now is head lower at sell 11.45 buy 11.2

A key question here is how far in the future is the contract being traded?
December 15

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 18, 2012, 10:03:55 PM
 #5

how come the futures are always ahead of the trend ? when mtgoxUSD it was above 12 the futures got above 13 now is head lower at sell 11.45 buy 11.2

It looks like there are some bad numbers being used or bad calculations occurring with the exchange:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50817.msg1281760#msg1281760
   [Edit: Issue has been resolved.]

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October 18, 2012, 11:10:58 PM
 #6

Futures try to predict the future and trade options accordingly,

I think you found the holy grail of Indicators! defiantly beats my magic 8 ball...  Cheesy

not that the magic 8 ball is totally useless

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October 19, 2012, 01:26:03 AM
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how come the futures are always ahead of the trend ? when mtgoxUSD it was above 12 the futures got above 13 now is head lower at sell 11.45 buy 11.2

Probably you're referring to ICEBIT.se ?
Well, this market is comparatively new and has not much liquidity. People are just starting to try it out. Currently, it looks like many traders there aren't predicing a "future" trend, but rather follow the currently predominant sentiment. Given the low liquidity, this effect accelerates. People are talking about an "imminent correction", so everyone runs to ICBIT and tries to go short on leverage. Now, to get a position, someone has to buy into it -- and obviously its a clever move in that situation to retract and hesitate, giving you a nice long position with a low base price.

My guess is this effect will vanish, once there is more liquidity,  and once several people got burnt by that effect and stop following the current "sentiment" blindly.
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October 19, 2012, 07:52:04 AM
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how come the futures are always ahead of the trend ? when mtgoxUSD it was above 12 the futures got above 13 now is head lower at sell 11.45 buy 11.2
Hmm futures above current price of the underlying?  I don't know - it looks like it is just some traders trying you the platform - does not look like something to rely on.
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October 19, 2012, 08:40:52 AM
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how come the futures are always ahead of the trend ? when mtgoxUSD it was above 12 the futures got above 13 now is head lower at sell 11.45 buy 11.2
Hmm futures above current price of the underlying?  I don't know - it looks like it is just some traders trying you the platform - does not look like something to rely on.

on the page it say OT:7412 so i wont sal just a away to try the platform

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 19, 2012, 09:18:57 AM
 #10

how come the futures are always ahead of the trend ? when mtgoxUSD it was above 12 the futures got above 13 now is head lower at sell 11.45 buy 11.2
Hmm futures above current price of the underlying?  I don't know - it looks like it is just some traders trying you the platform - does not look like something to rely on.

on the page it say OT:7412 so i wont sal just a away to try the platform
What does that mean?  Is it an order for 7412 options to be sold/bought now?  Now is irrelevant - I was talking about the time when the price for the future option was above the market price of the underlying - this is not a normal situation because it can be quickly arbitraged away (after all keeping bitcoins for two months does not induce any cost).
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October 19, 2012, 11:22:41 AM
 #11

What does that mean?  Is it an order for 7412 options to be sold/bought now? 
open positions, that number is to say that people are not just trying the thing is kinda well advanced, futures many times means expectation, what the market do expect from the price 

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 19, 2012, 11:26:58 AM
 #12

What does that mean?  Is it an order for 7412 options to be sold/bought now? 
open positions, that number is to say that people are not just trying the thing is kinda well advanced, futures many times means expectation, what the market do expect from the price 

Hmmm, so futures are even more sterile then the bitcoin exchange price? Interesting thought. Sounds logical, although in bitcoins case I'd say speculation makes up 70% of the price anyway.
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October 19, 2012, 11:33:23 AM
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Hmmm, so futures are even more sterile then the bitcoin exchange price? Interesting thought. Sounds logical, although in bitcoins case I'd say speculation makes up 70% of the price anyway.
yes, people speculate around the future adoption and future usage of bitcoins and icbit futures speculate on that sentiment, so yeah we got derivatives that speculate on a sentiment and said sentiment speculate on a possibility, is like gambling that the next winner lottery ticket will have get the 5 winner numbers in ascendent order (2 4 6 7 8)or descendent order (23 19 14 11 5)

i dont have a problem if that look strange the outcome of this is one single thing => expectation a way to measure the sentiment

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 19, 2012, 01:11:50 PM
 #14

What does that mean?  Is it an order for 7412 options to be sold/bought now? 
open positions, that number is to say that people are not just trying the thing is kinda well advanced, futures many times means expectation, what the market do expect from the price 
Not exactly - futures price, apart from really crazy situations, is always lower than the current market price.  So a lower price is not an indicator of anything - it is  the normal condition of futures market.  How much lower can be an indicator - but then you'll need to compare it something else.
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October 19, 2012, 01:23:06 PM
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is always lower than the current market price.  So a lower price is not an indicator of anything - it is  the normal condition of futures market.  How much lower can be an indicator - but then you'll need to compare it something else.
on 19/09 and 04/10 future price was close to 15 usd the mtgoxUSD top on 19/09 was 12.68 and on 04/10 13.08, how is that always lower that the market ? you cant pick and choose you take all the price movements or none

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 19, 2012, 01:33:52 PM
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is always lower than the current market price.  So a lower price is not an indicator of anything - it is  the normal condition of futures market.  How much lower can be an indicator - but then you'll need to compare it something else.
on 19/09 and 04/10 future price was close to 15 usd the mtgoxUSD top on 19/09 was 12.68 and on 04/10 13.08, how is that always lower that the market ? you cant pick and choose you take all the price movements or none

Do you realize that the person who was buying the futures could buy bitcoins instead and keep them for two months?  That was not normal that he bought the futures - he was playing or trying it out, or maybe it was the platform owners trying to attract some traders.
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October 19, 2012, 03:24:14 PM
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you can check that youself what is happening there and if have any relation with mtgox prices, I am not going on the land of tralalala and say it was the manipulator, the spooky men, the owner, aliens etc, price give profits and give loses so is the only thing that matters   

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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October 19, 2012, 06:12:54 PM
 #18

futures price, apart from really crazy situations, is always lower than the current market price.

I'm a noob when it comes to futures contract trading but "always" is probably the wrong word to use, and "normal" might be the more appropriate term.



 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_backwardation  


The difference with bitcoin, and specifically with BUZ2 is that there are so few options to trade on margin that the price on ICBIT.se appears to end up being an exaggeration of current market sentiment.

Because ICBIT offers leverage somewhere in the range of 10:1, it is one of the few options available to aggressive speculators.  But there is not that much liquidity, so even with a relatively large delta between BUZ2 and the current BTC/USD, the futures contracts don't influence the market (spot) rates hardly at all.

It does, however, give someone who thinks the exchange rate is going to rise but has no USDs at an exchange the ability to add to their BTC position by entering at a lower rate, currently about $11.24.

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October 19, 2012, 10:42:45 PM
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Im also a noob when it comes to futures, but from what I understand that graph you provided refers to traditional goods that have costs of storage (and decay). Therefore the price of those same goods in the future will be higher then today, because storage and decay costs add up to material costs --> Contango price is higher then Spot price.

With bitcoin however no such costs apply and contango, spot price and backwardation should be almost equal.
IMO what may distort them however is market sentiment, because as mentioned some posts up, the price of BUZ2 is purely speculative and is not affected by supply and demand.

Pls correct me if Im wrong.
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October 20, 2012, 04:53:40 AM
 #20

futures price, apart from really crazy situations, is always lower than the current market price.

I'm a noob when it comes to futures contract trading but "always" is probably the wrong word to use, and "normal" might be the more appropriate term.



 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_backwardation  


You should rather link to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango - and quoting this article:

A contango is normal for a non-perishable commodity that has a cost of carry. Such costs include warehousing fees and interest forgone on money tied up, less income from leasing out the commodity if possible (e.g. gold).[1] For perishable commodities, price differences between near and far delivery are not a contango. Different delivery dates are in effect entirely different commodities in this case, since fresh eggs today will not still be fresh in 6 months' time, 90-day treasury bills will have matured, etc.

But bitcoins are non-perishable and have no cost of carry - and so contango is not normal for them.  I guess I should add that qualification to my first statement.
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