Bitcoins: designed to fail

[R2D221]

Is there a need to bring this old post back, other than just create more FUD?

[Beliathon]

This means there is (...) 0.03 BTC for every world citizen.

When the dust has settled and fiat is dead, 0.03 BTC will make a person very, very wealthy.

Because by then, .03 BTC will not be .03 BTC at all, it will be 3,000 bits - a small fortune. Spoiler: no one will be measuring wealth in Bitcoins anymore, they'll be measuring in bits.

Measuring wealth in BTC in the post-fiat era would be as absurd as measuring wealth in # of mega-yachts today.

[Newmine]

$150 trillion divided by 21 million BTC equals $7.14million/BTC.

[9kv]

So you can use satoshis for transactions!

[keithers]

Bitcoins will fail because no government on earth will let it be legal with something that they cannot control or get taxes from.

I think they will create something similar except that it will let all transactions be recorded.

But I still think bitcoins will be used as a black market for trading illegal things and for avoiding taxes.

Druglords and mafia can use bitcoins and only the italian mafia is extremly big, than you got the triads, the yakuza the mexicans etc.

So it will probably have some value.

Taxes have and always will be up to the citizen to claim their earnings.   If you choose to lie about your taxes, you may get away with it, or you may get caught and suffer the consequences.   You said above that the government cannot get taxes from BTC...they actually already are (in the form of short or long term capital gains).   You are supposed to claim your gains, just as you would on any other stock, mutual fund, or other investment vehicle...

[safari88]

while readily available and could be I guess money does not matter

because I am always looking for free never buy bitcoin for invesatsi

[CryptoCarmen]

while readily available and could be I guess money does not matter

because I am always looking for free never buy bitcoin for invesatsi

if you go just with free, well you should hope about scenarios people posted here. who knows maybe will one day 0.01 BTC really be worth fortune.

[RawDog]

I am simply stunned that the bitcoin community has people as shockingly dumb as the OP.  Maybe in the end, Bitcoin is going to fail, but it will fail because of stupid people in the community rather than because there aren't enough units.  What a moron.

[cysive]

It's a damn shame that decimal place can't be moved. A damn shame....

[keithers]

I think the OP should at least be re-worded.   I guess you could make an argument that "Bitcoin is destined to fail"  (I don't agree with this).

But Bitcoin was definitely NOT "designed to fail"   No one creates something that takes a ton of time and effort, with the intentions of it purposely failing. 

I really think BTC is almost getting headed to the point where it is "too big to fail"   There are too many brilliant minds, and too much VC money in the ecosystem to allow the protocol to fail...

[Zingg]

I think the OP should at least be re-worded.   I guess you could make an argument that "Bitcoin is destined to fail"  (I don't agree with this).

But Bitcoin was definitely NOT "designed to fail"   No one creates something that takes a ton of time and effort, with the intentions of it purposely failing. 

I really think BTC is almost getting headed to the point where it is "too big to fail"   There are too many brilliant minds, and too much VC money in the ecosystem to allow the protocol to fail...

My money is on bitcoins, but the only thing I'm worried about is if bitcoin is like the netscape of the internet. What happens if/when mozilla/chrome comes around? Will bitcoin plummet in a week cause something better comes around? Or will cryptos just act like different currencies of different countries? Each having their own value.

[RawDog]

My money is on bitcoins, but the only thing I'm worried about is if bitcoin is like the netscape of the internet.

This is a very curious point.  Marc Andreesen was the man behind Netscape.  Now, Marc Andreesen is largely behind Bitcoin.  What if he is just a major two-time loser?  On the first day Microsoft came out with a browser, I knew Netscape was DEAD.  Everyone told me I was crazy and Microsoft would never catch up.  Netscape was silly rookie garbage compared to the first IE.   

Now we have the same guy betting on bitcoin.  Could he be just as wrong about the 'Internet of money'?  Possibly. 

Just because a guy is rich doesn't mean he is right.  Andreesen might actually prove to be the biggest tech failure ever if bitcoin fails and gets replaced by a nice sweet version from Microsoft.  lol 

just kidding Marc or Mark - whatever!!!

[Mewtwo]

My money is on bitcoins, but the only thing I'm worried about is if bitcoin is like the netscape of the internet.

This is a very curious point.  Marc Andreesen was the man behind Netscape.  Now, Marc Andreesen is largely behind Bitcoin.  What if he is just a major two-time loser?  On the first day Microsoft came out with a browser, I knew Netscape was DEAD.  Everyone told me I was crazy and Microsoft would never catch up.  Netscape was silly rookie garbage compared to the first IE.   

Now we have the same guy betting on bitcoin.  Could he be just as wrong about the 'Internet of money'?  Possibly. 

Just because a guy is rich doesn't mean he is right.  Andreesen might actually prove to be the biggest tech failure ever if bitcoin fails and gets replaced by a nice sweet version from Microsoft.  lol 

just kidding Marc or Mark - whatever!!!

The plot thickens.

[Verse]

I just want to point out that using wealth is illogical.

GDP = Income. Income is expressed in currency. Wealth is expressed in goods, like houses, which may be sold for Bitcoin but are not themselves Bitcoin.

Therefore Bitcoin's maximum value should be calculated using world GDP rather than world wealth. I'm not going to calculate, it's a vapid chain of thought.

[RodeoX]

Damnit.

OMG, did that make me laugh!

You realise you can spend tiny fractions of a Bitcoin right?

It's not like a dollar, you can't only break it 100 ways.

Oh, thank god.

And this! 

[lobin]

I don't think the creator's intention was to design a currency of which 1 coin would ultimately be worth +/- 1 million dollars.  I think his intention was to design a digital currency that is distributed, decentralized, and pseudonymous/anonymous.

Not to take over all the other currencies?
It's a little bit a pity that 'they' didn't do some 'back of the envelope' calculations like this.
But hey, they did a great job anyway 

that's right.

[moriartybitcoin]

The world's wealth in 2007 was more or less 150 trillion $ (USD 1.5 * 10^+12) [1]
The number of people living on earth is more or less 7 billion (7 * 10^+9) [2]
The maximum number of bitcoins is 21 million (2.1 * 10^+7) [3]

This means there is 21*10^7/7*10^9 = 0.03 BTC for every world citizen.
And the current wealth, expressed in the total available number of bitcoins in USD/BTC is 1.5*10^12/2.1*1+7 = 0.5*10^12/0.7*10^7 = 0.7 *10^5 = USD 70,000 / BTC.
With inflation going like it's going now, USD 1 might be (I'm speculating here) worth only 1 UBC (micro Bitcoin) by the time all 21 million Bitcoins are created.
Does this make the bitcoin ultimately usable as a worldwide currency, replacing current currencies?

I think not, and it's built-in.


References:
[1] http://www.stockmarketfunding.com/getfile/343e5d94-2871-48a5-9aa6-550c3da0bbd2/World-Wealth-vs-World-Derivatives-1998-2007.aspx , http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/24/US_derivatives_and_US_wealth_vs_total_world_wealth_1995-2007.gif/800px-US_derivatives_and_US_wealth_vs_total_world_wealth_1995-2007.gif

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population ,
http://www.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chd=s:ABCDEGHIJLMNOQRSTVWXYabcdfghiklmnpqrsuvwxz01245679,XXXYYZZaabccddeffgghhijjkklmmnoopqqrrsttuuvwwxxyzz&chds=0.0,1.0&chs=160x101&chco=287bf5ff&chls=2.0,1.0,0.0&chxt=x,r,x,r&chxs=0,333333,0,0,tl,333333|1,333333,0,-1,tl,333333|2,000000,11.5,-1,tl,333333|3,000000,11.5,-1,tl,333333&chxtc=0,2|1,2|2,0|3,0&chm=h,cccccc,0,1,1,1|h,cccccc,0,0.5,1,-1&chxp=2,0,82|3,5,50,95&chxl=0:|1960|2009|1:|0|4B|8B|2:|1960|2009|3:|0|4B|8B

[3] Mentioned many times here in this forum 

Shows your ignorance of Bitcoin unfortunately .. it is (almost) infinitely divisible

[notbatman]

In the near future...

"How would you like to pay the luxury tax on your new mega-yatch, cash, debit, credit or BTC?"

Stop the FUD!

[Oscilson]

Bitcoins will fail because no government on earth will let it be legal with something that they cannot control or get taxes from.

I think they will create something similar except that it will let all transactions be recorded.

But I still think bitcoins will be used as a black market for trading illegal things and for avoiding taxes.

Druglords and mafia can use bitcoins and only the italian mafia is extremly big, than you got the triads, the yakuza the mexicans etc.

So it will probably have some value.

BTC is not the best option for black market. It is traceable.

[Nawaytes]

In the near future...

"How would you like to pay the luxury tax on your new mega-yatch, cash, debit, credit or BTC?"

Stop the FUD!

haha, nice parable. yeah stop spreading FUD, for many people who have believed with bitcoin, and difficult to build trust someone. Do not destroy what has been built with the hard by spreading FUD.