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Question: what are the odds of another november 2013 style run-up of btc prices ?
zero
2%
33%
50/50
75%
98%

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Author Topic: poll: will there ever be another run-up ?  (Read 3271 times)
600watt (OP)
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September 28, 2015, 08:57:58 PM
 #1

almost two years of decline; confidence is down; sentiment is loooow

what are you currently thinking about the possibility of another major run-up of btc prices ? are you losing your faith, or are you not worried at all ?
kwukduck
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September 28, 2015, 09:12:12 PM
 #2

Lol fail currency is fail

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JayJuanGee
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September 28, 2015, 09:13:06 PM
 #3

almost two years of decline; confidence is down; sentiment is loooow

what are you currently thinking about the possibility of another major run-up of btc prices ? are you losing your faith, or are you not worried at all ?


Isn't this poll a little vague regarding timing and the amount of the run up.

So for example, does it mean November December 2015, and does it mean like a 10x increase?

Also, the poll is missing whole categories of percentages... for example, the categories could be something more comprehensive, such as:


Less than 2%

2 to 20%

20 to 45%

45 to 55%

55 to 80%

80 to 98%

more than 98%


1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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September 28, 2015, 09:14:38 PM
 #4

heh 3 versions of the question 
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September 28, 2015, 09:14:47 PM
 #5

Predicting these BTC prices is the same as predicting prices for stocks. It's a guessing game. Unless something major happens, BTC will stay at the price they're at.

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JayJuanGee
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September 28, 2015, 09:39:05 PM
 #6

heh 3 versions of the question 

Sometimes there is more than one question because someone may be asking in time 1, time 2 and time 3, or the second part of the question may assume something to take place in time 1 that would affect the probabilities of the outcome at time 2, however, specifying time, amount and probability can all be contained within one version of a poll question, as long as it is NOT ambiguous on any of these areas. 

That way when the results come out, we know what we were attempting to answer rather than each of us attempting to interpret the various ambiguities contained within the poll question.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
600watt (OP)
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September 28, 2015, 10:20:19 PM
 #7

heh 3 versions of the question 

Sometimes there is more than one question because someone may be asking in time 1, time 2 and time 3, or the second part of the question may assume something to take place in time 1 that would affect the probabilities of the outcome at time 2, however, specifying time, amount and probability can all be contained within one version of a poll question, as long as it is NOT ambiguous on any of these areas. 

That way when the results come out, we know what we were attempting to answer rather than each of us attempting to interpret the various ambiguities contained within the poll question.

i tried to keep it simple. your percentage ranges idea is probably better. 
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September 29, 2015, 12:50:43 AM
 #8

The questions should also have a time frame ( 2 years or 5 years).
Will there ever is too broad. I really wouldn't care if there was a run up 100 years from now.
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September 29, 2015, 01:15:49 AM
 #9

I think it's pretty much guaranteed as long as bitcoin doesn't fail. The tricky part is when this will happen. It could be in a month or in a few years. That's why it's good to always have some BTC tucked away just in case Wink

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September 29, 2015, 01:27:11 AM
 #10

We have had multiple run-ups actually. In 2014 there was $420 to $680 for example. More recently we have seen $180 to $320. These run-ups are huge and should not be overlooked. There is still a lot of money to be made.

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September 29, 2015, 01:51:10 AM
 #11

Predicting these BTC prices is the same as predicting prices for stocks. It's a guessing game. Unless something major happens, BTC will stay at the price they're at.

I think some time stock prices can be predicted based on company business module but bitcoin prices very difficult to predict because there no business module for it but its prices are completely depends on demand and supply so only good news about bitcoin will make prices to go high.
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September 29, 2015, 02:10:52 AM
 #12

almost two years of decline; confidence is down; sentiment is loooow

what are you currently thinking about the possibility of another major run-up of btc prices ? are you losing your faith, or are you not worried at all ?

Im not worried at all whatever happens I know it is what is meant to be. I'm just afraid not to have more coins today because I'm sure the value of it in the future will be more than anyone could ever imagine.
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September 29, 2015, 05:10:59 AM
 #13

I think it's pretty much guaranteed as long as bitcoin doesn't fail. The tricky part is when this will happen. It could be in a month or in a few years. That's why it's good to always have some BTC tucked away just in case Wink


How much should we have?   hahahahaha    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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September 29, 2015, 08:17:09 AM
 #14

i haven't lost any faith and nor will i in the comming years. i am very patient. if this year isn't the year for a small rally (which i think is the case) then we'll have another attempt next year. no problem. the halving/lower supply will definitely affect the price in a good way.
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September 29, 2015, 08:29:27 AM
 #15

almost two years of decline; confidence is down; sentiment is loooow

what are you currently thinking about the possibility of another major run-up of btc prices ? are you losing your faith, or are you not worried at all ?


Cant erase the fact that I am a little worried about it because I have invested on it and I am hoping that in the future the value of it will rise, all I can do is to continue believing in it and to hope for the best I think its all I can do for now.
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September 29, 2015, 12:24:14 PM
 #16

I think it's pretty much guaranteed as long as bitcoin doesn't fail. The tricky part is when this will happen. It could be in a month or in a few years. That's why it's good to always have some BTC tucked away just in case Wink


How much should we have?   hahahahaha    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Haha! *inside joke from another thread for those who are wondering
I say at least 1 BTC even the poor folks out there should be able to afford 1 BTC in this 2 year long bear market.

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September 29, 2015, 01:45:33 PM
 #17

It's going to zero, or it's becoming a standard of wealth preservation.

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September 29, 2015, 04:20:09 PM
 #18

In response to the question in the OP - Will there ever be another run up?

For many reasons - Almost certainly. Bitcoin may not be the all conquering new age payment tool but there will almost certainly be another run up, probably within 18 months. From that point I can't predict whether it will be sustainable or crash again.

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September 29, 2015, 04:28:12 PM
 #19

Not until the block size is increased considerably.

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September 29, 2015, 04:34:21 PM
 #20

I hope so. My holding is at a loss right now. Need price increase to even break level.

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