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Author Topic: Difficulty Increase at 131040 - MASSIVE  (Read 9535 times)
riX
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June 04, 2011, 08:24:06 PM
 #21

It's calculated as new_difficulty=old_difficulty*(time it should take to create (14*24*60*60/(10*60)) blocks) / (time it really took to create (14*24*60*60/(10*60)) blocks), unless new_difficulty > old_difficulty*4 or < old_difficulty/4.

See function GetNextWorkRequired in main.cpp.

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June 04, 2011, 08:42:29 PM
 #22

Ah, so it's not directly related to hashing power but rather time to completion. Useful info-mation thank you.

So difficulty and hashing power share a proportional relationship, to double the current difficulty you will need to average double the previous rounds average hashrate. That makes me feel better about mining, unless we see some massive influx of people or some new mining tech comes about shouldn't be seeing 1mil for quite a while yet.
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June 06, 2011, 03:45:59 PM
 #23

my official guess, 736914   Cheesy

i will still use this number, i think its a good guess

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June 06, 2011, 04:02:36 PM
 #24

Mining is currently constrained by the supply of ATI cards.  Browser mining, FPGA's or ATI increasing manufacturing of older products could change this, but right now I am betting about 600,000 at the most.

As much as I like the FPGA/ASIC idea in theory, you are right, this is all GPU, and that won't change until either the BTC price stabilizes for 12mo, or the capital expense for these techs drops to less an order of magnitude above ATI cards, which does not seem likely. Nobody in their right mind would invest tens of thousands of dollars to build low ROI hardware to play in a market this volatile, especially given that it might become illegal in some large markets in 6mo. With GPUs and ROI around 1000%, not so big a risk.

Does anybody have numbers on the number of ATI HD GPUs actually produced? What would be the hashrate and relative difficulty if every one of them was put into service? I would wager that that number is a hard limit at least until a new line of next generation GPUs comes out.

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June 06, 2011, 04:11:21 PM
 #25

Mining is currently constrained by the supply of ATI cards.  Browser mining, FPGA's or ATI increasing manufacturing of older products could change this, but right now I am betting about 600,000 at the most.

As much as I like the FPGA/ASIC idea in theory, you are right, this is all GPU, and that won't change until either the BTC price stabilizes for 12mo, or the capital expense for these techs drops to less an order of magnitude above ATI cards, which does not seem likely. Nobody in their right mind would invest tens of thousands of dollars to build low ROI hardware to play in a market this volatile, especially given that it might become illegal in some large markets in 6mo. With GPUs and ROI around 1000%, not so big a risk.

Does anybody have numbers on the number of ATI HD GPUs actually produced? What would be the hashrate and relative difficulty if every one of them was put into service? I would wager that that number is a hard limit at least until a new line of next generation GPUs comes out.

5xxx cards have been out of production for ages. Sapphire recently released some 5850's and 5830's under the 'Xtreme' brand but those sold out within weeks due to low pricing.

6000-series cards are still out in the open as they "just" came out, but costs are pretty prohibitive compared to mhash/s. 6950 and 6990 are the only viable cards tbh.

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June 06, 2011, 04:41:07 PM
 #26

5830's are still plentiful and cheap.  very cheap. 4 5830's can get 1.2Gh for $440.
kirby9058
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June 06, 2011, 04:44:23 PM
 #27

Difficulty increase didn't seem to make as large of an impact as I thought?
Anyway, if you guys are worried about it and need a bit more power, Sapphire HD 5830's are on sale for $109 with free shipping on newegg, or the XFX 5830 is on Tigerdirect for $99 after rebate. Pick em up while you can, as xonar said, they're not in production anymore.
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June 13, 2011, 11:42:02 AM
 #28

When do they reveal the next Difficulty?
Then i will build up my rig or send everything back Tongue

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June 13, 2011, 11:58:08 AM
 #29

When do they reveal the next Difficulty?
Then i will build up my rig or send everything back Tongue
predicted: about 834000 in about 50 hours already.

I use TradeHill instant BTC trading: http://www.tradehill.com/?r=TH-R11320

donations: 12BdMNcn7VQitFGMhtRojvwXbrX3Jcs9U6
miningnew
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June 13, 2011, 12:28:44 PM
 #30

Do they increase the dificulty every 2 weeks?

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June 13, 2011, 12:32:10 PM
 #31

Do they increase the dificulty every 2 weeks?
it could decrease as well.

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

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miningnew
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June 13, 2011, 12:38:35 PM
 #32

But every 2 weeks?

btcLeger
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June 13, 2011, 12:47:43 PM
 #33

But every 2 weeks?
Every 2016 Blocks.

I use TradeHill instant BTC trading: http://www.tradehill.com/?r=TH-R11320

donations: 12BdMNcn7VQitFGMhtRojvwXbrX3Jcs9U6
miningnew
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June 13, 2011, 12:49:52 PM
 #34

And the system plans to solve 6 a day?

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June 13, 2011, 01:08:19 PM
 #35

And the system plans to solve 6 a day?
6/hour. I'd suggest to read some FAQs, wiki and basic info articles. It will help to understand bitcoins basic principles.

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Goldenmaw
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June 13, 2011, 03:31:22 PM
 #36

Exchanged rate says; "JUMP!"  Difficulty asks; "How high?"
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June 13, 2011, 11:33:53 PM
 #37

you guys realise that blockexplorer (once it's back up) gives an accurate (based on current total processing power) estimate of the difficulty... why are you speculating about this?  It even tells you when it's going to happen (Hint: on Wednesday evening, UTC)

Will

Raulo
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June 15, 2011, 06:44:46 PM
 #38

It seems I won. My address in the signature.

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June 15, 2011, 08:43:47 PM
 #39

*sits in the background, gently tapping a baseball bat in my hands*

he better pay up boss

Overclocking = money? Greatest full time hobby ever!
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