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Author Topic: Difficulty Increase at 131040 - MASSIVE  (Read 9534 times)
Genrobo
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June 04, 2011, 02:41:31 PM
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The next difficulty increase after the one coming Monday, I'm predicting/speculating that it's going to be MASSIVE.
Four things make me say this.
1. Recent coverage of Bitcoin on popular news sources.
2. The influx of brand new miners, as is evidenced by the forum. (Look at all the newbies that are popping up now asking for help getting their brand new mining rigs up.)
3. Major pools are seeing huge increases in their processing power.
4. The runaway pump on the open exchanges that's been happening over the past few days.

Anyone think we'll top 1,000,000 difficulty on 131040?
I'll start an open bet.
I think we'll top 1,000,000 difficulty on 131040.
I'll put 0.50 BTC on it.

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Raulo
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June 04, 2011, 02:48:53 PM
 #2

I think we'll top 1,000,000 difficulty on 131040.
I'll put 0.50 BTC on it.

I make a 0.50 counterbet. We will not top 1,000,000 on 131040.

Although the difficulty increase will be significant, the Bitcoin inertia is too large to have such a jump. 

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June 04, 2011, 02:53:41 PM
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At current rate I think max 700 000 but more realisticly around 600-625k

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June 04, 2011, 03:20:40 PM
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I make a 0.50 counterbet. We will not top 1,000,000 on 131040.

Although the difficulty increase will be significant, the Bitcoin inertia is too large to have such a jump. 

Although given the price increase inertia you're probably going to be gambling the equivalent of half a million dollars.
xenon481
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June 04, 2011, 03:46:53 PM
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At current rate I think max 700 000 but more realisticly around 600-625k

I don't think you understand that this thread isn't about the next retarget in 433 more blocks. It is about the retarget after that one.

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CydeWeys
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June 04, 2011, 03:56:11 PM
 #6

I don't think there's any question we're going to be hitting 1,000,000 in the re-target after this one.  The exchange rate has doubled; thus so will the difficulty.
xenon481
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June 04, 2011, 04:04:21 PM
 #7

I think we'll top 1,000,000 difficulty on 131040.
I'll put 0.50 BTC on it.

I make a 0.50 counterbet. We will not top 1,000,000 on 131040.

Although the difficulty increase will be significant, the Bitcoin inertia is too large to have such a jump. 

The most recent difficulty increase was ~78%.

If the next difficulty ends up being ~550,000, then it would take a ~81% increase the next round. I agree that that probably isn't doable.

If the next difficulty ends up being ~600,000 (which might be possible with the recent respike in hashing power), then it would take a ~67% increase. I think that is definitely possible, but might not be entirely likely.

Either way, it certainly isn't impossible to hit 1,000,000 on 131040.

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um0rion
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June 04, 2011, 04:16:27 PM
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Guys, just because the bitcoin price goes up DOES NOT mean difficulty will. You need a massive influx of new miners to do that. The difficulty rise before this one took like 3-4 days to rise, and this one has taken more than a week to get a difficulty rise that will be less than 30%. Unless hashing power comes up, then the next difficulty rise will be moderate, but you'd have to double the entire network's hashing power right now to get a 100% increase for the difficulty after this one. Its possible, yes, but you'd not only need existing miners to increase hashing power, but a lot of brand new people. Its just not realistic to assume that we'll gain 4-5 Thash/s in the next week.

Could be wrong tho Smiley

Genrobo
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June 04, 2011, 04:40:53 PM
 #9

I think we'll top 1,000,000 difficulty on 131040.
I'll put 0.50 BTC on it.

I make a 0.50 counterbet. We will not top 1,000,000 on 131040.

Although the difficulty increase will be significant, the Bitcoin inertia is too large to have such a jump. 

I'll pay out if I lose.

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I'll be honest, any donations aren't used for a good cause, they go directly to booze, food, herbal substances Wink, and computer hardware.
I will squander the money, but hell, at least you know one person is having a good time.
Raulo
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June 04, 2011, 04:50:38 PM
 #10

I'll pay out if I lose.

OK, then it's settled. At block 131040, I, Raulo, will pay 0.50 BTC to Genrobo if difficulty is above 1,000,000.

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xenon481
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June 04, 2011, 04:52:15 PM
 #11

I'll pay out if I lose.

OK, then it's settled. At block 131040, I, Raulo, will pay 0.50 BTC to Genrobo if difficulty is above 1,000,000.

Edge case. Who wins at 1,000,000 even?

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Genrobo
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June 04, 2011, 04:57:50 PM
 #12

I'll pay out if I lose.

OK, then it's settled. At block 131040, I, Raulo, will pay 0.50 BTC to Genrobo if difficulty is above 1,000,000.

Edge case. Who wins at 1,000,000 even?

If it's 1mil even, I'll pay 1 BTC to Raulo and you too Xenon, because I doubt it will fall even.

17YwW6cuSbXLT8cvvdAcfy1iHyPkhVE7CG
Donations welcome, not required.
I'll be honest, any donations aren't used for a good cause, they go directly to booze, food, herbal substances Wink, and computer hardware.
I will squander the money, but hell, at least you know one person is having a good time.
xenon481
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June 04, 2011, 05:03:54 PM
 #13

I'll pay out if I lose.

OK, then it's settled. At block 131040, I, Raulo, will pay 0.50 BTC to Genrobo if difficulty is above 1,000,000.

Edge case. Who wins at 1,000,000 even?

If it's 1mil even, I'll pay 1 BTC to Raulo and you too Xenon, because I doubt it will fall even.

 Grin

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June 04, 2011, 06:56:33 PM
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I also think the bubble will burst before that...

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Littleshop
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June 04, 2011, 07:02:45 PM
 #15

The next difficulty increase after the one coming Monday, I'm predicting/speculating that it's going to be MASSIVE.
Four things make me say this.
1. Recent coverage of Bitcoin on popular news sources.
2. The influx of brand new miners, as is evidenced by the forum. (Look at all the newbies that are popping up now asking for help getting their brand new mining rigs up.)
3. Major pools are seeing huge increases in their processing power.
4. The runaway pump on the open exchanges that's been happening over the past few days.

Anyone think we'll top 1,000,000 difficulty on 131040?
I'll start an open bet.
I think we'll top 1,000,000 difficulty on 131040.
I'll put 0.50 BTC on it.

There are not enough ATI cards out there available for mining to bring it to 1,000,000 this round.  And that is good.   Mining is currently constrained by the supply of ATI cards.  Browser mining, FPGA's or ATI increasing manufacturing of older products could change this, but right now I am betting about 600,000 at the most.

jme621
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June 04, 2011, 07:07:37 PM
 #16

my official guess, 736914   Cheesy

airdata
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June 04, 2011, 07:42:53 PM
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if the value continues to rise along with difficulty, it will nearly even out.  and if that's true, I don't think anybody should worry too much about difficulty. 

What probably should be a concern though is when the blocks become 25btc instead of 50.  If difficulty continues to rise even when the block size is cut from 50 to 25, it will be alot less profitable.
bcpokey
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June 04, 2011, 07:46:12 PM
 #18

This may seem obvious but how is the difficulty calculated exactly? By which I mean what is the algorithm not the basic concept. I know the idea is to be able to mint 50 bitcoins every 10 minutes but I'm not that familiar with hashing concepts. I've been curious about hashing rates vs. difficulty increases for a bit but I haven't seen the way it is calculated.

If not the precise algorithm (as it may be calculated in a complex manner) a way to roughly estimate would be helpful.
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June 04, 2011, 07:59:41 PM
 #19

This may seem obvious but how is the difficulty calculated exactly? By which I mean what is the algorithm not the basic concept. I know the idea is to be able to mint 50 bitcoins every 10 minutes but I'm not that familiar with hashing concepts. I've been curious about hashing rates vs. difficulty increases for a bit but I haven't seen the way it is calculated.

If not the precise algorithm (as it may be calculated in a complex manner) a way to roughly estimate would be helpful.

Yes actually I'm quite curious as well, does it take into consideration of the time taken for the round or does it not. Cuz if it doesn't then it'll be possible that a huge enough miner/pool to drop his/it's mining right before the difficulty adjustment to keep it in check.

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June 04, 2011, 08:14:20 PM
 #20

I guess ~600k next round and ~800k the following one.
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