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Author Topic: Everyone looses in the long run  (Read 96726 times)
mtnsaa
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October 21, 2015, 08:03:35 PM
 #241

It isn't exactly true that everyone loses in the long run.  The correct phrasing would be, most people lose in the long run due to probability and stats.  There are always a few lucky people who bend that rule though.

This is exactly why I wrote my post, please read it. No one can bend the rules. We are talking about casino games with house edge of course. Some other games, like sports betting, poker, prediction ones, they require certain skill and research (although you generally lose there too). But at least in those, in theory, you are the one choosing based on facts or just plain knowledge.
WhatTheGox
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October 21, 2015, 08:14:55 PM
 #242

It isn't exactly true that everyone loses in the long run.  The correct phrasing would be, most people lose in the long run due to probability and stats.  There are always a few lucky people who bend that rule though.

This is exactly why I wrote my post, please read it. No one can bend the rules. We are talking about casino games with house edge of course. Some other games, like sports betting, poker, prediction ones, they require certain skill and research (although you generally lose there too). But at least in those, in theory, you are the one choosing based on facts or just plain knowledge.

If you find poker games with zero rake or 100% rakeback it probably isnt even right to call it gambling, a very average player could beat a game like that in the long run.  Its hard to find games with no rake/100% rakeback but for example on a site like stars the FPP games are a no rake game with plenty of players.
Bitcoininspace
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October 21, 2015, 10:47:19 PM
 #243

It isn't exactly true that everyone loses in the long run.  The correct phrasing would be, most people lose in the long run due to probability and stats.  There are always a few lucky people who bend that rule though.

This is exactly why I wrote my post, please read it. No one can bend the rules. We are talking about casino games with house edge of course. Some other games, like sports betting, poker, prediction ones, they require certain skill and research (although you generally lose there too). But at least in those, in theory, you are the one choosing based on facts or just plain knowledge.

If you find poker games with zero rake or 100% rakeback it probably isnt even right to call it gambling, a very average player could beat a game like that in the long run.  Its hard to find games with no rake/100% rakeback but for example on a site like stars the FPP games are a no rake game with plenty of players.

Where would you find those? Or do you mean that the odds are 100% to players just like it is for instance with Poker, where if you play at your friends place instead of a casino, you get 100% of the deposit.
adaseb
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October 21, 2015, 11:18:05 PM
 #244

It isn't exactly true that everyone loses in the long run.  The correct phrasing would be, most people lose in the long run due to probability and stats.  There are always a few lucky people who bend that rule though.

This is exactly why I wrote my post, please read it. No one can bend the rules. We are talking about casino games with house edge of course. Some other games, like sports betting, poker, prediction ones, they require certain skill and research (although you generally lose there too). But at least in those, in theory, you are the one choosing based on facts or just plain knowledge.

If you find poker games with zero rake or 100% rakeback it probably isnt even right to call it gambling, a very average player could beat a game like that in the long run.  Its hard to find games with no rake/100% rakeback but for example on a site like stars the FPP games are a no rake game with plenty of players.

Where would you find those? Or do you mean that the odds are 100% to players just like it is for instance with Poker, where if you play at your friends place instead of a casino, you get 100% of the deposit.

I think he means in a real life casino not online. The rules are completely different between the two mediums.
tommorisonwebdesign (OP)
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October 22, 2015, 12:44:22 AM
 #245

It isn't exactly true that everyone loses in the long run.  The correct phrasing would be, most people lose in the long run due to probability and stats.  There are always a few lucky people who bend that rule though.

This is exactly why I wrote my post, please read it. No one can bend the rules. We are talking about casino games with house edge of course. Some other games, like sports betting, poker, prediction ones, they require certain skill and research (although you generally lose there too). But at least in those, in theory, you are the one choosing based on facts or just plain knowledge.

If you find poker games with zero rake or 100% rakeback it probably isnt even right to call it gambling, a very average player could beat a game like that in the long run.  Its hard to find games with no rake/100% rakeback but for example on a site like stars the FPP games are a no rake game with plenty of players.

Where would you find those? Or do you mean that the odds are 100% to players just like it is for instance with Poker, where if you play at your friends place instead of a casino, you get 100% of the deposit.

I think he means in a real life casino not online. The rules are completely different between the two mediums.
I was talking gambling in general and online, a combination of the two. What I have to say about cryptcurreincies and gambling though is that it has brought us the edge that was talked about a few posts ago. We have not experienced that before. Provably fair still does not mean you always win, it means you only win 50% of the time.

Signatures? How about learning a skill... I don't care either way. Everybody has to make a living somehow.
hua_hui
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October 22, 2015, 02:21:24 AM
 #246

overall, i do agree to what you all say about poker. it is really requires a huge amount of skills on top a huge amount of luck too. as you go higher level, % of luck goes down as % of skills go up. so if you are really skillful, you can win most of the time.
mtnsaa
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October 22, 2015, 02:52:15 AM
 #247

Reducing the house edge definitely is more fair than before. However it doesn't change the main idea we are discussing here. It actually kinda sends the wrong signal, like you can actually have the same chance as the house in the long run as the title says. You don't.

Like others, I agree that the best strategy is to consider the deposit money as already lost, withdraw the minute you are ahead and keep as cool as possible. And finally, bet as sporadically as possible.
Kevin77
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October 22, 2015, 04:00:48 AM
 #248

Reducing the house edge definitely is more fair than before. However it doesn't change the main idea we are discussing here. It actually kinda sends the wrong signal, like you can actually have the same chance as the house in the long run as the title says. You don't.

Like others, I agree that the best strategy is to consider the deposit money as already lost, withdraw the minute you are ahead and keep as cool as possible. And finally, bet as sporadically as possible.

But I guess it's not at all possible from my personal experience as the emotions over rule our plans. When we started to see the profits, then our emotions come into play.
This might be the reason, some people are able to make profits when they were novice and soon they are turning into loosing streak.
futurebit640
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October 22, 2015, 04:14:23 AM
 #249

overall, i do agree to what you all say about poker. it is really requires a huge amount of skills on top a huge amount of luck too. as you go higher level, % of luck goes down as % of skills go up. so if you are really skillful, you can win most of the time.

That's why in simple gambling shouldn't played to make money in the long run or shouldn't try to depend on gambling earnings. If that happens then one will end up in bigger problems because no one can generate money continually from gambling. I usually bet on my favourite cricket sports with very small amount and will not bet on all matches but I chose few only.
mtnsaa
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October 22, 2015, 04:21:03 AM
 #250

Yes I mentioned this on a previous post and that's actually the main culprit, human emotion. Even if you somehow manage to beat the system for a while, this plays against you since it gives you a sense of false power making you lose that money quicker actually.

One idea we didn't discuss I think was to make your betting career a one-off. We all know it's not sustainable. That's what I actually did without knowing, I've gambled for months only to lose a big cut of my profits in just some minutes. I immediately stopped gambling on casino games (my story was with real casinos). The problem is that I didn't even noticed my behavior, it was just natural. I was clearly not a gambler or really addicted to it.

So I think we can add one more rule for the curious ones, one can follow all the advise previously mentioned for a month and then vow to never seriously gamble again when a losing streak starts to creep.
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October 22, 2015, 05:37:34 AM
 #251

I do agree that the house edge always gets you, now I'm not a gambler at all however in my early years I used to go to a local casino for half an hour and win around $15-30-50 a day. It was in an electronic type roulette. I swear I somehow learned a pattern where certain numbers kinda started to fall which eventually lead to me betting on number zero and win big.

The moral of the story is that, while I did this for a month or so and I was very disciplined (cashing out after I hit 0 or other number), one night I thought I was invincible and started playing BlackJack because I wanted more. I think I loss 30-40% of my winnings so far in that one night. So even if you somehow managed to get good in a game, a bad streak or a bad decision will take it all away eventually. The casino knows that when you win, you will come back to lose it all sooner or later.

I know what you are wondering, so why don't you just kept playing on the roulette? I did for a little why, but they eventually closed it and then later upgraded it for a new one. There was no pattern to learn on this one...  Cry

The most true words about gambling. A real story of everything I write in my posts about gambling since the first day I wrote about it. This post mus be read by everyone who gamble. Every word of this post is a precious lesson for every gambler. This story will be repeated always by everyone which will continue to gamble.

From above post:

The casino knows that when you win, you will come back to lose it all sooner or later.

This is the cruel true for every gambler. Gambling create addiction. The addiction create for sure loss of all the money. End of story.  Sad

Thanks, while my story is actually a happy one since it was not really an addiction at all (that's also scarier, imagine what could happen if that was the case) I completely agree that these concepts and messages should always be mentioned first. This is a forum with very intelligent people, geeks, developers, etc and we somehow still fall for this mind tricks, it doesn't make sense.

Anyway, I still think that some types of gambling are ok to do once in a while. For example when there is no house edge, a lottery once in a while or maybe sports betting or betting on something that isn't going to take all your money the longer you play. If you are good at poker or predicting sports or whatever then YOU have the edge. With that said, just have fun like I did and forget about it no matter if you win or lose.

Are very rare the people which gamble and don't be addicted from this kind of disease. All the kind of gambles (including those mentioned by you in the above posts). Important in this story is the time. If you will continue to gamble for a long time you for sure will be addicted by that. Even from the most "innocent" of those (like the lottery, sport betting or worst, the poker). It is not the edge who is dangerous in itself (even this is the bigger and the most known danger) but the use of money to win. Using for fun in the long time become desire to win. The desire to win need always more money to use. If you arrive in this point have no importance what you gamble. Whatever it will be the gamble (even the above mentioned by you), you will use and you will need always for more and more money. You are addicted already if you arrive in this point.
YuginKadoya
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October 22, 2015, 08:53:29 AM
 #252


Are very rare the people which gamble and don't be addicted from this kind of disease. All the kind of gambles (including those mentioned by you in the above posts). Important in this story is the time. If you will continue to gamble for a long time you for sure will be addicted by that. Even from the most "innocent" of those (like the lottery, sport betting or worst, the poker). It is not the edge who is dangerous in itself (even this is the bigger and the most known danger) but the use of money to win. Using for fun in the long time become desire to win. The desire to win need always more money to use. If you arrive in this point have no importance what you gamble. Whatever it will be the gamble (even the above mentioned by you), you will use and you will need always for more and more money. You are addicted already if you arrive in this point.

Well I think the most dangerous think in gambling is the peoples mind, addiction to gambling is spreading like wild fire, and many sets their mind in it, thinking they could easily win sum of money towards gambling, addiction start with your knowledge in the game that is you are getting hooked without even noticing it. 
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October 22, 2015, 03:00:12 PM
 #253

Most people loses in the long run but nobody wants to admit it when losing. When winning, everyone will post on how much they are winning but losers are often out of he spotlight as they do not want to be seen as losers. Casino games are poor gambling when you will lose eventually.

     

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hua_hui
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October 22, 2015, 04:43:18 PM
 #254

well most people will lose and that is a fact. that is why casino is always so profitable. $$$$ after $$$$ come in non stop for every month for every year. and they will sure show the super winner, and imagine the amount they earn from others r like 100 or 1000x more than the one winner.
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October 22, 2015, 06:41:22 PM
 #255

exactly everyone looses in the long run......if you really want to be a pro-bamble first you need to learn lesson on self-control which is most important...

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October 22, 2015, 07:01:46 PM
 #256

I read some people were saying professional gamblers never loose as they are sponsored by others.If we put very small percentage of professional gamblers away and talk about usual and normal gamblers then my answer is clear that everyone looses in the long run .
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October 22, 2015, 07:04:13 PM
 #257

This is true everyone looses in the long run whether it is online casino or physical one a little player always finishes at zero and casino owners are who win always.
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October 22, 2015, 07:46:57 PM
 #258

This is true everyone looses in the long run whether it is online casino or physical one a little player always finishes at zero and casino owners are who win always.

No it isn't true.  It is highly unlikely that people profit from gambling in the long run.  But it isn't everyone, or always lose.

That is like saying, well you have a 1 in trillion chance at winning the lottery, no one ever wins it.  When in fact someone wins nearly every day.
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October 23, 2015, 03:09:05 AM
 #259

This is true everyone looses in the long run whether it is online casino or physical one a little player always finishes at zero and casino owners are who win always.

No it isn't true.  It is highly unlikely that people profit from gambling in the long run.  But it isn't everyone, or always lose.

That is like saying, well you have a 1 in trillion chance at winning the lottery, no one ever wins it.  When in fact someone wins nearly every day.

Also, professional people who play poker or sports betting. They don't always lose. While they might lose sometimes, they win more than they have lost, so they are still in profit. If the game has a house edge, than you will always lose in the long term, but it's possible to win games that have skill involved.
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October 23, 2015, 03:38:57 AM
 #260

Also, professional people who play poker or sports betting.

There are no professional sports betting player because it is about luck. You can analyze the game and predict who will win or how many goals will be score but it is more about luck. Meanwhile there are alot professional poker player because they know how to play the game and luck is just small thing for them
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