Gentlemen, i think it's safe to say we're the new halving elite

[Meuh6879]

fear for little investors

honestly ?

investissors don't even known how blockchain system (mining, nodes, ledger) work at the begin ... so talk about XT is a no-sens. 

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[pattu1]

I do agree that this is best time to hold as after halving there will be huge increase in price of bitcoin.Bitcoin is on the way to be most previous and valuable digital currency of future.Halving of blocks will be one more step towards this goal.

the supply side has long been known.

but the demand side has been very hard to read. we have lots of market manipulation even by the very exchanges that help "set" the price as they trade in the market too. in the last few months the price has been in the $200-$300 range. I think this range is so large that it will not be possible to see any halving price effect even if there is one. 

Assuming demand side remains constant (big assumption), we can hope for some price increase close to the block reward halving.

[futureofbitcoin]

where i did say that the halving is the only thing that will change the price and everything else will stay equal? you can't assume shit on something you don't know, you don't know if demand will increase or not, so i put aside this factor

but you can know for sure 100% that if there are less coins produced, there would be less dumping, unless you think that right now miners are dumping 1800 coins, and after the halving they will dump all the mined supply(1800 coins)

i'm still waiting for the source that it was a ponzi or pyramid about the recent litecoin pump, until now every halving has brought a pump, there were no exception, so why you should think that bitcoin is different, when we are talking about the king here?

the only thing that should be clear, is that the pump will not occur the same day of the halving, it can occur 6 months before or 3 months after, but it was still caused by the halving in any of these case

There was a video in the altcoin forums, but I'm too lazy to search it up.

there is only one reason why bitcoin must increase in value
block halving, if the value will not increase at the end miners will leave the scene, and bitcoin will die inevitably

The problem is, you're ignoring 99.9999999999999% of what affects the price because "you don't know". so you're taking that 0.0000000000001% that you know and confidently making predictions based on it. That doesn't make sense at all.

But we had this argument many times already so I'll stop there.

[Nidaleee]

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

Actually I feel the same way I mean how who else will dominate of course the coin handlers today and in the future we better gather some more coins.

[Amph]

The problem is, you're ignoring 99.9999999999999% of what affects the price because "you don't know". so you're taking that 0.0000000000001% that you know and confidently making predictions based on it. That doesn't make sense at all.

But we had this argument many times already so I'll stop there.

so you think that the halving, which is known to occur at 100% unless bitcoin die before july 2016, to be worth only 0.0000...1%? lol no way

the halving will have the same impact as the supply and demand, after all it's another form of supply and demand with a smaller scale

[Ceizer54]

To some extent OP is correct..Halving will definitely decrease the supply of bitcoins but this factor alone will not be responsible for increasing the price of bitcoins because it's simple economics for price to rise demand must be very high and supply should be low then only price will skyrocket and when the halving occurs then supply will decrease but demand will be same so price will increase accordingly..if we want price should go very high then we should promote bitcoins and we should tell more about bitcoins to others so that other people who are yet not bitcoiners come and buy some bitcoins and therefore increasing the price

[futureofbitcoin]

The problem is, you're ignoring 99.9999999999999% of what affects the price because "you don't know". so you're taking that 0.0000000000001% that you know and confidently making predictions based on it. That doesn't make sense at all.

But we had this argument many times already so I'll stop there.

so you think that the halving, which is known to occur at 100% unless bitcoin die before july 2016, to be worth only 0.0000...1%? lol no way

the halving will have the same impact as the supply and demand, after all it's another form of supply and demand with a smaller scale

If I give an objective answer, I think the having will account for AT MOST 5% of the value. But I believe it's less than 1%.


How important do you think the having is? 50%? 80%?

[popovicbit]

Too self-aware...but I'll go along with it.

[doublemore]

Haha I like the idea of this thread, just needed to get a post in on the 1st page incase the price does go up massively as a result of the halving next summer.

Kind of a - 'I was there' - thing.

Its going up for sure, anyone see litecoin price stable at around $3 for a while now after halving, a very good clue that the halving will at very least double a price.

[sbrzol]

Miners wont sell their bitcoins at same price if they can mine only half number of bitcoins than earlier.
(Miners will increase their selling price.)

Who bought their bitcoins over X $ wont sell them under X $ nearing to halving.
Also early adopters wont sell their bitcoins.  

The only sellers on "low price"  will be those who needs fiat instantly.
(+ some bitcoin payment processor , but those supply is "constant" )  

[YuginKadoya]

There is a chance that Bitcoin will increase by next year so a lot of people that I know saving bitcoin before that
and I am pretty excited before it happen! 

[Amph]

The problem is, you're ignoring 99.9999999999999% of what affects the price because "you don't know". so you're taking that 0.0000000000001% that you know and confidently making predictions based on it. That doesn't make sense at all.

But we had this argument many times already so I'll stop there.

so you think that the halving, which is known to occur at 100% unless bitcoin die before july 2016, to be worth only 0.0000...1%? lol no way

the halving will have the same impact as the supply and demand, after all it's another form of supply and demand with a smaller scale

If I give an objective answer, I think the having will account for AT MOST 5% of the value. But I believe it's less than 1%.


How important do you think the having is? 50%? 80%?

the halving will not lead the new price by itself only, but by the demand it will rise because of the hype around it, this is the truly impact of the halving on the future value

and going by this the impact will be very high, i would say that the price will rise at 99% because of the halving and the hype that will be generated around it

[LMGTFY]

the halving will not lead the new price by itself only, but by the demand it will rise because of the hype around it, this is the truly impact of the halving on the future value

and going by this the impact will be very high, i would say that the price will rise at 99% because of the halving and the hype that will be generated around it

If a rise depends on hype creating artificial demand - that's pretty depressing. I hope there is a rise, but one driven by fundamentals, not hype.

[Mickeyb]

the halving will not lead the new price by itself only, but by the demand it will rise because of the hype around it, this is the truly impact of the halving on the future value

and going by this the impact will be very high, i would say that the price will rise at 99% because of the halving and the hype that will be generated around it

If a rise depends on hype creating artificial demand - that's pretty depressing. I hope there is a rise, but one driven by fundamentals, not hype.

Yes, we had too much hype and speculation until now in Bitcoin ecosystem, even too much. We don't need more of it. I hope that as we grow we will become and seen as very serious ecosystem that depends on its fundamentals and technology.

This is necessary in my opinion if we ever want to become accepted by the masses. Every time there is a speculation, pump and dump, hype we only lose as a community and that's not good at all for our future.

[Ibian]

Why is nobody looking at things from a logical angle anymore? It's not about what you "feel" will happen. It's about hard facts and elementary human psychology.

The halving will double the price of making bitcoins. This means some miners will be forced to drop out, and some of those dropouts will switch from producing bitcoins to buying them. Others who have hoarded for a while may dump when the price rises, but first the price must rise. For the overall market the supply will shrink which will push the price up assuming the demand remains steady.

The halving is going to push the price up. No way around it. Not in a straight line either, there will be a return of volatility to go with it.

[silverbox]

Why is nobody looking at things from a logical angle anymore? It's not about what you "feel" will happen. It's about hard facts and elementary human psychology.

The halving will double the price of making bitcoins. This means some miners will be forced to drop out, and some of those dropouts will switch from producing bitcoins to buying them. Others who have hoarded for a while may dump when the price rises, but first the price must rise. For the overall market the supply will shrink which will push the price up assuming the demand remains steady.

The halving is going to push the price up. No way around it. Not in a straight line either, there will be a return of volatility to go with it.

Volatility what is that??

[mordekaiser]

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

I totally agree to that, bitcoin fought its way to the top and it deserves some acknowledgements and one way of doing this is getting a coin for ourselves.

[futureofbitcoin]

the halving will not lead the new price by itself only, but by the demand it will rise because of the hype around it, this is the truly impact of the halving on the future value

and going by this the impact will be very high, i would say that the price will rise at 99% because of the halving and the hype that will be generated around it

Here's the thing. The reason your reasoning is wrong, is because you're looking at this like farmers farming for vegetables or miners mining for ores.

In that case, a decrease in supply is a "real" decrease in supply.


However, bitcoin is different. Bitcoin has a known total supply (about 21 million). Ask a random person who has heard about bitcoin, and they would probably know about the 21 million limit (or at least it'll sound familiar; they'll have seen it somewhere even if they've forgotten). On the other hand, ask people how much bitcoins are mined per day. I bet even many people who own bitcoins can't answer that question.

The real supply of bitcoin is just 21 million.

This is further compounded by the fact that the VAST majority of bitcoin's value right now is in speculation. Bitcoin has very little real use cases right now that gives it value. The reason it's worth $200 something is because people are hoping the price will go up in the future.


In the future when pretty much all the coins have been mined. People put an estimate for how much the market cap of bitcoin will be, and then divide by 21 million to get the value per coin, and they will buy if it's significantly higher than what it is now. So the price is essentially completely dictated by the total possible value of all bitcoins, divided by 21 million.

It's not dictated by how much coins are coming in every day.



So to summarize, as opposed to "real goods" like food, there is real demand. People need it, so when there is less supply, the price will go up. Supply and demand dictates the price.

The MAIN point of bitcoin currently is speculation. That means that rather than demand dictating price, it's the price that's dictating the demand. People don't need overpriced bitcoins.

[YuginKadoya]

The same debate happened before the last Bitcoin halving in 2012 and nothing actually happened to the price. Of course back in 2012 Bitcoin was much less known to the general community.

But Now Bitcoin is well known now but the halving will occur in next year july/aug 2016, and I think bitcoin will increase by that time! 

[Denker]

the halving will not lead the new price by itself only, but by the demand it will rise because of the hype around it, this is the truly impact of the halving on the future value

and going by this the impact will be very high, i would say that the price will rise at 99% because of the halving and the hype that will be generated around it

Here's the thing. The reason your reasoning is wrong, is because you're looking at this like farmers farming for vegetables or miners mining for ores.

In that case, a decrease in supply is a "real" decrease in supply.


However, bitcoin is different. Bitcoin has a known total supply (about 21 million). Ask a random person who has heard about bitcoin, and they would probably know about the 21 million limit (or at least it'll sound familiar; they'll have seen it somewhere even if they've forgotten). On the other hand, ask people how much bitcoins are mined per day. I bet even many people who own bitcoins can't answer that question.

The real supply of bitcoin is just 21 million.

This is further compounded by the fact that the VAST majority of bitcoin's value right now is in speculation. Bitcoin has very little real use cases right now that gives it value. The reason it's worth $200 something is because people are hoping the price will go up in the future.


In the future when pretty much all the coins have been mined. People put an estimate for how much the market cap of bitcoin will be, and then divide by 21 million to get the value per coin, and they will buy if it's significantly higher than what it is now. So the price is essentially completely dictated by the total possible value of all bitcoins, divided by 21 million.

It's not dictated by how much coins are coming in every day.



So to summarize, as opposed to "real goods" like food, there is real demand. People need it, so when there is less supply, the price will go up. Supply and demand dictates the price.

The MAIN point of bitcoin currently is speculation. That means that rather than demand dictating price, it's the price that's dictating the demand. People don't need overpriced bitcoins.

So what is overpriced for you? The actual price we are dealing with?
A price of $500-$600?
There is no answer to that imo. What you consider as too expensive might be a cheap and good entry point for others.