Will the final US Marshals auction produce a pump, a dump, or a flat price?

[emelac]

Will the final US Marshals auction produce a pump, a dump, or a flat price?

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2015/dpr-bitcoins/

Online Auction Period
Date: Thursday, November 05, 2015, from 8:00am EST to 2:00pm EST

If the Gemini launch was any other time I would expect a pump from it, and if the auction was any other time I would expect a pre-auction dump from it. The announcement of the two upcoming events on the same day has left me confused. Will they counteract each other and leave the price unmoved, do we get a pump, a dump, or both?

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[NorrisK]

I don't think it will have much of an effect. Seeing these auctions are off exchange and the buyers probably will not dump below their purchase price right away (unless they get them much cheaper ofcourse..)

I expect a pump from the Gemini launch and a flat line from this, so net we will see a nice climb if launch is smooth.

[worhiper_-_]

The action happens off-exchange. It'd be interesting to see what price it reached but it's unlikely that such information will be disclosed. IMO it's likely that if the highest bid is lower than the bitcoin trading price we'll see a dump. People from outside of the US are allowed to bid, so it's safe to assume that someone somewhere will try to get discounted bitcoins. Surely though, this isn't going to be the easiest thing unless there's not enough interest.

[1Referee]

I think not much will happen at the beginning and that the auction winners will mostly hold their coins till at least before or just after the halving, and then dump them. With a bit of patience they can make themself a good bit of money.

[jasonjm]

42 000 coins? isn't that around 10 days mining? more or less?

if so that is nothing, a drop in the ocean

[NorrisK]

The action happens off-exchange. It'd be interesting to see what price it reached but it's unlikely that such information will be disclosed. IMO it's likely that if the highest bid is lower than the bitcoin trading price we'll see a dump. People from outside of the US are allowed to bid, so it's safe to assume that someone somewhere will try to get discounted bitcoins. Surely though, this isn't going to be the easiest thing unless there's not enough interest.

Last few auctions I think the coins went for quite a bit over exchange price. You have to take into account that buying 2,000 bitcoins on an exchange will have a dramatic effect on exchange rate as well. Therefore it is not really likely that they will be sold under current rate and get dumped.

[klee]

More supply.

[fuddudle]

I don't really think the fact that gemini is coming out will cause much of a price impact. There is simply too much expectation on that from the community.

[randy8777]

I don't really think the fact that gemini is coming out will cause much of a price impact. There is simply too much expectation on that from the community.

the fact that there are high expectations regarding gemini, is that it can only impact the price in a not so good way. people always tend to expect too much from things, especially in bitcoin. that way people get upset if things turn out not to be what they were hoping it to be.

[Preen]

I don't really think the fact that gemini is coming out will cause much of a price impact. There is simply too much expectation on that from the community.

the fact that there are high expectations regarding gemini, is that it can only impact the price in a not so good way. people always tend to expect too much from things, especially in bitcoin. that way people get upset if things turn out not to be what they were hoping it to be.

That is correct.

the market responds in such a way that the majority are losers.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I'm guessing it'll have little to no effect. Maybe a 5-10 USD swing either way but I doubt it's going to cause ripples in the bitcoin world. Keep moving gentlemen, nothing to see here.

[azguard]

there will not be any price change it will stay on course like it is now don't expect to see much

Maybe a 5-10 USD swing

this may be the case in good case 10-20 up worse that price down

[Fiat_Hodler]

ITs the last round. Lots of people try to underpay for things at auctions hoping to try their luck in the future at the next auction. The thing is if too many people do this then the last auction ends up going for well above value. Ive read about this happening with real estate where the last property (of a few listed properties) to sell goes for more than the rest due to buyers realizing that they missed their chances with the earlier sales.

[!! pop]

ITs the last round. Lots of people try to underpay for things at auctions hoping to try their luck in the future at the next auction. The thing is if too many people do this then the last auction ends up going for well above value. Ive read about this happening with real estate where the last property (of a few listed properties) to sell goes for more than the rest due to buyers realizing that they missed their chances with the earlier sales.

Last auction? Did you know that 'In its latest report called the Internet Organised Crime Threat Assessment for 2015, Europol outlined the state of cybercrime threats in the European Union. The report mentions bitcoin and virtual currencies, claiming that it accounts for roughly 40% of criminal-to-criminal transactions online.'-- http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/10/01/europol-report-says-bitcoin-is-common-currency-for-cybercriminals/

What makes you think Silk Road is USMS' last bust?

[Fiat_Hodler]

ITs the last round. Lots of people try to underpay for things at auctions hoping to try their luck in the future at the next auction. The thing is if too many people do this then the last auction ends up going for well above value. Ive read about this happening with real estate where the last property (of a few listed properties) to sell goes for more than the rest due to buyers realizing that they missed their chances with the earlier sales.

Last auction? Did you know that 'In its latest report called the Internet Organised Crime Threat Assessment for 2015, Europol outlined the state of cybercrime threats in the European Union. The report mentions bitcoin and virtual currencies, claiming that it accounts for roughly 40% of criminal-to-criminal transactions online.'-- http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/10/01/europol-report-says-bitcoin-is-common-currency-for-cybercriminals/

What makes you think Silk Road is USMS' last bust?

So potential investors should hold out and hope some BTC gets seized and auctioned?

[!! pop]

ITs the last round. Lots of people try to underpay for things at auctions hoping to try their luck in the future at the next auction. The thing is if too many people do this then the last auction ends up going for well above value. Ive read about this happening with real estate where the last property (of a few listed properties) to sell goes for more than the rest due to buyers realizing that they missed their chances with the earlier sales.

Last auction? Did you know that 'In its latest report called the Internet Organised Crime Threat Assessment for 2015, Europol outlined the state of cybercrime threats in the European Union. The report mentions bitcoin and virtual currencies, claiming that it accounts for roughly 40% of criminal-to-criminal transactions online.'-- http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/10/01/europol-report-says-bitcoin-is-common-currency-for-cybercriminals/

What makes you think Silk Road is USMS' last bust?

So potential investors should hold out and hope some BTC gets seized and auctioned?

Guaranteed to happen. Sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.

[pattu1]

It will remove uncertainty.
So I guess the price will move up.
Nobody expects the coins to be lapped up and dumped at exchanges.

[ahpku]

Nobody expects the coins to be lapped up and dumped at exchanges.

Au contraire, I do.

[fuddudle]

Price actually doesn't move the way people think it does. It moves because its profitable for the market maker to move it in that way.

News simply adds to what was already coming.

[Guido]

maybe news will make price go a tad higher, but pretty flat
hopefully buyers, who have to jump through all hoops and have details with authorities are hodlers

nice knowing they will be out of 'authority' hands
less huge chunks around owned by one person the better