Gemini's launch is a failure, so is bitcoin

[yolalanda]

how can you judge already that Gemini is a fail when it's recently launched?
give it more time and let more people see how Gemini will perform in the coming months

You're right, in a way.  Nothing wrong with Gemini--reasonable trading fees, US based (not in Kurdistan/Somalia/Mom's basement), known people backing it (as in "not Anon & Nony"), banking support, insured, regulated, etc., etc. What else can anyone want?
And yet... Dead.
People not flocking to Gemini proves what many have been telling you for years: exchanges fake volume.  But not just tweak it a bit, not just Chinese exchanges, not just 'a few' exchanges, and not just sometimes--all exchanges, most of the volume, all the time.
Gemini can't [fake volume] because regulated & unwilling to play fast & loose, so seems dead

How does people not flocking to prove that exchanges fake volume?

I'm pretty certain some exchanges do fake volume, but I'm at a loss to see how action at Gemini (or the lack thereof) proves anything. I think Gemini is a great development for Bitcoin but I'm not going to trade there anytime soon - and my reasons have absolutely nothing to do with volume, fake or otherwise, at Gemini or elsewhere. There's inertia associated with moving exchange - why should people move from an exchange they're comfortable with (where they've either managed to avoid the AML/KYC hoops or they've already jumped through them once and would prefer not to do it again at a new exchange) unless there's a compelling reason? There's hopefully money out there that wants the safety and security of a heavily regulated exchange - but I doubt there's significant overlap between that and money already on unregulated/less-regulated exchanges.

Perhaps 'proof' is too strong a word.  I meant proof in its purely conversational sense, more like 'show.'
Rigorous proof is hard, but a nod, you know, is as good as a wink to a blind horse.

As far as your lack of interest, I'm guessing you're not a part of Gemini's target demographic, 'institutional investors' (who, as I was led to believe, are chompin' at the bit to buy bitcoins, lacking only a legitimate, 'institutional investor'-friendly portal like Gemini).

As to there 'hopefully [being] money out there that wants the safety and security of a heavily regulated exchange"? Why wouldn't one want to trade on a safe, regulated exchange? Do investors typically crave risk without potential reward? Or are you obliquely referencing the criminal element, those who've 'managed to avoid the AML/KYC hoops'?

[arbitrage001]

Anyone want to shred some light on why the launch is a failure?

[LMGTFY]

Perhaps 'proof' is too strong a word.  I meant proof in its purely conversational sense, more like 'show.'
Rigorous proof is hard, but a nod, you know, is as good as a wink to a blind horse.

As far as your lack of interest, I'm guessing you're not a part of Gemini's target demographic, 'institutional investors' (who, as I was led to believe, are chompin' at the bit to buy bitcoins, lacking only a legitimate, 'institutional investor'-friendly portal like Gemini).

As to there 'hopefully [being] money out there that wants the safety and security of a heavily regulated exchange"? Why wouldn't one want to trade on a safe, regulated exchange? Do investors typically crave risk without potential reward? Or are you obliquely referencing the criminal element, those who've 'managed to avoid the AML/KYC hoops'?

I'm almost certainly not a part of Gemini's target demographic, and I imagine very few Bitcointalk posters are either - though I seem to recall one poster who claimed to work at a fairly high level for one branch of JP Morgan. Gemini have gone to a great deal of trouble to ensure that they've jumped through the regulatory hoops necessary for US institutional investors to feel comfortable trading there. I'm not in the US, I'm not an institutional investor, and the BTC I'd be prepared to trade on one exchange is fairly meagre, so there's little advantage to me trading at Gemini.

Obviously rational traders want to reduce exchange risk as far as possible. But for many of us part of that risk is derived from, not mitigated by, regulation. I can transfer a few BTC to an exchange, trade a bit, and then transfer my BTC back to my control quickly and easily, with no risk that my personal details (except possibly my email address) end up being hacked, or, possibly worse, on a government's database. That's convenient, and also reassuring. I don't have the wealth to justify trading on Gemini - if I did, I could afford to consult legal counsel and take legal action as appropriate if they "shared" my personal information with hackers (and remember that that information would be far more extensive due to AML/KYC requirements). I'm not obliquely referencing the criminal element - I reject without hesitation the argument that only criminals have something to hide. To limit my risk I'd like to avoid sharing my financial information as much as possible. Obviously I have to share some information in some cases - when I take out a mortgage, etc. But a mortgage is a big thing, much bigger than the limited amount I'd risk on any one exchange. Fortunately there are still exchanges available to me that offer a far less onerous option.

[electronicfactura]

Gemini's launch is not a failure as it is too young and it needs time to grow and settled things.I will say Gemini didn't fail and neither Bitcoin.Actually those who were dreaming to see rise in price they failed.Bitcoin doesn't depend on any exchange it is strong alone.

[yolalanda]

... with no risk that my personal details (except possibly my email address) end up being hacked, or, possibly worse, on a government's database. ...

Since you're 'not in the US' (not a US citizen?) this is sort of moot, but out of curiosity, what 'personal details' [unrelated to money laundering/tax evasion] do you worry about appearing in 'a government's database'? I mean, the ones that aren't already there?

>I reject without hesitation the argument that only criminals have something to hide.
So do I, so do I... That's [partly] why I've never suggested such a thing. OTOH, I'm somewhat at a loss as to what AML/KYC requirements you find to be particularly intrusive, and why the risk of said [damaging personal information] coming to light outweighs the reward of knowing that 99% of the trades aren't fake, that Anon won't front-run/otherwise bitch up your trades, or vanish into the interwebs with your coin without so much as okthxbi.
Could you elaborate?

[LMGTFY]

... with no risk that my personal details (except possibly my email address) end up being hacked, or, possibly worse, on a government's database. ...

Since you're 'not in the US' (not a US citizen?) this is sort of moot, but out of curiosity, what 'personal details' [unrelated to money laundering/tax evasion] do you worry about appearing in 'a government's database'? I mean, the ones that aren't already there?

>I reject without hesitation the argument that only criminals have something to hide.
So do I, so do I... That's [partly] why I've never suggested such a thing. OTOH, I'm somewhat at a loss as to what AML/KYC requirements you find to be particularly intrusive, and why the risk of said [damaging personal information] coming to light outweighs the reward of knowing that 99% of the trades aren't fake, that Anon won't front-run/otherwise bitch up your trades, or vanish into the interwebs with your coin without so much as okthxbi.
Could you elaborate?

I'm worried about any personal details being on any database. Not because I'm unreasonably paranoid (though that's certainly arguable) but because the more information outside my control, the harder it is for me to manage it. I live in a jurisdiction where there are pretty robust privacy laws, so I'm not too worried about sharing financial information with my government (or other European governments) - I have a relatively high degree of confidence that my information will be used for the advertised purpose, and not sold or leaked to other parties - but it still makes sense to limit the information I share. I'm not going to give out personal data willy nilly - there would have to be a compelling reason for me to do so.

Your second paragraph, 99% of trades are fake? I assume this is conversational, like your "proof" earlier? Yeah, of course your general point is correct - Gemini is safer than a non-regulated exchange. That's why I hope institutional investors in BTC will increase, that's why I welcome Gemini. But in order for me to trade there I need to locate ID documents (what documents do they need? Will mine be acceptable?), send them (or copies - do they need to be notarised?), wait for them to be received, approved, etc. All for trading a few BTC. When I'm already trading quite happily elsewhere.

Seriously, I'd love to be part of Gemini's target audience. If I had the money, I would trade there. But I'm not going to go through the AML/KYC hassle for the sake of a few BTC. And I strongly suspect that most people will display similar inertia. They'll all have slightly different reasons, but the outcome will be the same - most people will continue trading on the exchange(s) they know, until/unless there's a compelling reason not to. And yet-another-new-exchange, even one targeted at institutional investors, is not a compelling reason.

[yolalanda]

... Your second paragraph, 99% of trades are fake? I assume this is conversational, like your "proof" earlier? ...

More how it's put together with other words, which is '[you] knowing that 99% of the trades aren't fake.'
Do you know that 99% aren't fake?
The only things standing between Anon and 99% wash trade & ...other fun stuffs are his scruples & [possibly] somewhat higher electrical bill (due to server load).
Regulation ups the ante to fines & possible jail time. I like that
Inb4 my dubious use of the word 'know': You got me, I played it fast & loose, sosumi. Should've said 'having greater reason to think, though still implicitly relying on a bunch of assumptions, albeit a substantially more reasonable & smaller bunch.' That's just so ugly & takes forever to type, so I went with 'know.'

[Amph]

Anyone want to shred some light on why the launch is a failure?

because apparently they think that a new exchange that has still not the same volume as okcoin, can only be considered a big fail

they are likely the same people that bitcoin should have been a successful already, or it is doomed to fail

[Mickeyb]

Anyone want to shred some light on why the launch is a failure?

Probably because we haven't seen a huge pump to at least $315, just like we did when the Coinbase was announced!

[NorrisK]

Anyone want to shred some light on why the launch is a failure?

Probably because we haven't seen a huge pump to at least $315, just like we did when the Coinbase was announced!

Very short sighted of them indeed...

This exchange will be flying miles above the others in a matter of months.

The reason will be that it actually is regulated and people will be able to trust them with larger amounts of money.

[kwukduck]

Anyone want to shred some light on why the launch is a failure?

Probably because we haven't seen a huge pump to at least $315, just like we did when the Coinbase was announced!

Very short sighted of them indeed...

This exchange will be flying miles above the others in a matter of months.

The reason will be that it actually is regulated and people will be able to trust them with larger amounts of money.

You're forgetting that one of the main reasons people wanted bit coin is because they don't want regulation. Now that that's out of the window for a possibility,  nobody is really interested anymore so there will not be larger amounts of money.

I expect the exchange to file for bankruptcy within 6 months.

[MrBig]

You're forgetting that one of the main reasons people wanted bit coin is because they don't want regulation. Now that that's out of the window for a possibility,  nobody is really interested anymore so there will not be larger amounts of money.

I remember reading many old threads where people talked about regulation being inevitable the more mainstream BTC becomes. So it's not completely unexpected.

[gentlemand]

You're forgetting that one of the main reasons people wanted bit coin is because they don't want regulation. Now that that's out of the window for a possibility,  nobody is really interested anymore so there will not be larger amounts of money.

I expect the exchange to file for bankruptcy within 6 months.

You might be listened to if you weren't so fucking predictable and actually capable of flexible thought.

Call me a commie pinko if you like but I don't think lack of regulation has worked out too well for plenty of buyers and sellers of Bitcoin. If the early days hadn't been made up of hostile autistic scumbags it might have worked out differently but it's natural for them to gravitate towards such a thing.

[yolalanda]

Was really counting on Big Money and Government Regulations to bail us out. Beginning to look like we might've sold out for nothing tho.
Oh well...

[cellard]

Bitcoin is already a success. VC money keeps comming in, usage keeps increase, price has been stable and we are seeing a healthy uptrend. Your life is a failure if you aren't yet involved in Bitcoin and don't own at least one. This is a fact that we might as well deal with it. Stop trying to fight destiny man, just hop on the winning train.

[solid12345]

You're forgetting that one of the main reasons people wanted bit coin is because they don't want regulation. Now that that's out of the window for a possibility,  nobody is really interested anymore so there will not be larger amounts of money.

I expect the exchange to file for bankruptcy within 6 months.

There is a difference between regulating the usage of the currency and regulating money changers who trade in and exchange the currency. Personally I welcome regulations so legitimate businesses will be able to offer services to the big money types who wouldn't ever feel safe depositing their wealth in some shady East European exchange.

[NorrisK]

You're forgetting that one of the main reasons people wanted bit coin is because they don't want regulation. Now that that's out of the window for a possibility,  nobody is really interested anymore so there will not be larger amounts of money.

I expect the exchange to file for bankruptcy within 6 months.

There is a difference between regulating the usage of the currency and regulating money changers who trade in and exchange the currency. Personally I welcome regulations so legitimate businesses will be able to offer services to the big money types who wouldn't ever feel safe depositing their wealth in some shady East European exchange.

This. We need more legal and safe options for businesses and investors to join the market.

Also, lack of regulation may be wanted by the early adopters, but the majority of people don't care the least about this.

Ask 100 people on the street what they think of centralized currencies.

I bet 100 people will either say "Whut?" or "Don't care". The decentralizers are a minority.

[Mickeyb]

Anyone want to shred some light on why the launch is a failure?

Probably because we haven't seen a huge pump to at least $315, just like we did when the Coinbase was announced!

Very short sighted of them indeed...

This exchange will be flying miles above the others in a matter of months.

The reason will be that it actually is regulated and people will be able to trust them with larger amounts of money.

You're forgetting that one of the main reasons people wanted bit coin is because they don't want regulation. Now that that's out of the window for a possibility,  nobody is really interested anymore so there will not be larger amounts of money.

I expect the exchange to file for bankruptcy within 6 months.

You are thinking to much in a one way direction here. Bitcoin will somewhere be more regulated, somewhere less regulated. This just depends on the country and on the laws in this country. Even within a country you have different levels of regulations, look at NY and the rest of the US.

Nothing alarming here. If a country like US won't let you fart without them knowing, it's a bit hard to expect that they will give all the freedom and liberty to Bitcoin.

Just my 2 cents though!

[talks_cheep]

It was very easy to sign up with Gemini, no ass-rimming like MtGox, GHash or other shady exchanges, just the normal questions and then they ask your questions that only you'd know. There was NO sending copies of your id's. I'm sold on Gemini.

[maartenhaha]

what is this forum becomming these days.... fud spammers taking al the space you need to crawl trough to read the interresting treds?
shouldn't we burn this kind of treads and posters to ground or something?

trying people make believe something is bad or a failure, by fudding it all over  the place to later on buy it at cheaper price with the intend to sell at higher price in the future... that's scam, wright?