Worrisome news, if the numbers are right..

[yrtrnc]

According to the below article 78% bitcoins are not being circulated. Which means that if they start spending, BTC value will drop to rock bottom.


http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/10/78-percent-of-bitcoin-currency-stashed-under-digital-mattress-study-finds/

How about you? Do you save your money mostly?

[pretendo]

Can we get numbers on previous spending rates?

[Monster Tent]

According to the below article 78% bitcoins are not being circulated. Which means that if they start spending, BTC value will drop to rock bottom.


http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/10/78-percent-of-bitcoin-currency-stashed-under-digital-mattress-study-finds/

How about you? Do you save your money mostly?

Depends if they sell or spend them on goods and services.

[yrtrnc]

Can we get numbers on previous spending rates?

Sorry, what d'ya mean exactly??




Here's the pdf file of the research carried out, apparently, supported by the Citi foundation ( Citi Group )..

http://eprint.iacr.org/2012/584.pdf

[yrtrnc]

Seems like there is a bit of a conspiracy involved. The research goes on to state this.

"Abstract. The Bitcoin scheme is a rare example of a large scale global
payment system in which all the transactions are publicly accessible (but
in an anonymous way). We downloaded the full history of this scheme,
and analyzed many statistical properties of its associated transaction
graph. In this paper we answer for the rst time a variety of interesting
questions about the typical behavior of account owners, how they acquire
and how they spend their Bitcoins, the balance of Bitcoins they keep
in their accounts, and how they move Bitcoins between their various
accounts in order to better protect their privacy. In addition, we isolated
all the large transactions in the system, and discovered that almost all
of them are closely related to a single large transaction that took place
in November 2010, even though the associated users apparently tried
to hide this fact with many strange looking long chains and fork-merge
structures in the transaction graph."

Any info on this???

[ElectricMucus]

Old news. And it is a very conservative estimation actually.

But that alone shouldn't have any impact on the price because if people use bitcoin as an investment instead of a currency that's what it is. It is the scam, frauds and dramas which make the price drop, because well it scares of new investors.

[Stephen Gornick]

Old news

Yup.  Additional discussions of it:

2012-10-17 78 percent of Bitcoin currency stashed under digital mattress, study
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=118946.0

78 percent of Bitcoin currency stashed under digital mattress, study finds
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=119421.0

How to determine dormant coins? (Inspired by Shamir's paper)
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=119465.0

Adi Shamir's paper on bitcoin
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=118797.0

Where all the bitcoins are bitcoins are hiding.
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=119362.0

[nomnomnom]

Here is a review by one of the bitcoin developers which discusses some potential flaws in this analysis.
https://gist.github.com/3901921

[Jack1Rip1BurnIt]

Here is a review by one of the bitcoin developers which discusses some potential flaws in this analysis.
https://gist.github.com/3901921

Good read. Explained some things I didn't know. Thanks

[yrtrnc]

How about the dramatic part, where it says:

and discovered that almost all
of them are closely related to a single large transaction that took place
in November 2010, even though the associated users apparently tried
to hide this fact with many strange looking long chains and fork-merge
structures in the transaction graph."

 

[Meni Rosenfeld]

The 78% figure was probably a result of a misunderstanding of how Bitcoin works, the problem is how the mainstream media acts as an echo chamber, taking a number out of context and sensationalizing it. The more accurate figure is 60% - and so what? There's nothing wrong with saving for the long term - and it's no secret that currently the usability of bitcoins is limited, and that many people hold them as an investment.

How about the dramatic part, where it says:

and discovered that almost all
of them are closely related to a single large transaction that took place
in November 2010, even though the associated users apparently tried
to hide this fact with many strange looking long chains and fork-merge
structures in the transaction graph."

 

Someone had lots of bitcoins (Mtgox? An early adopter?) and either:
1. Tried to make himself more anonymous, or
2. Used them normally, creating a variety of patterns.

[istar]

If people are hoarding it just shows that people value most of their Bitcoins much more than the current price level.
It also shows that 60-80% of the Bitcoin community have a positive faith on the future value of Bitcoin otherwise they would had sold their coins making them circulate.

If all Bitcoins are circulated it will show that noone wants to keep the Bitcoins as an asset.
So this is just extremely positive, its very bullish.

[itsgoldbaby]

If people are hoarding it just shows that people value most of their Bitcoins much more than the current price level.
It also shows that 60-80% of the Bitcoin community have a positive faith on the future value of Bitcoin otherwise they would had sold their coins making them circulate.

You're asuming most here are smart and know what they're doing = FAIL!

This cartoon is fucking great.

[Transisto]

OP, you could have commented on this page instead of creating an empty new topic 9 day late.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/11mk2o/78_percent_of_bitcoin_currency_stashed_under/

We haven't gone out of the 1st era of cheapest bitcoins and you want me to spend them on something I don't absolutely need ? Ridiculous. Save save save...

Wait until ASICs come in the game then wait for a reward halve, then another...

Spending bitcoins is good unless you spend it on something that need them converted to fiat beforehand. Hire some developers, tip people who help you, (micro payments) invest in the development of the bitcoin economy... the only exception to this is purchasing mining hardware and paying for it's electricity.

[FreeMoney]

This thread again, woohoo.

I hold X coins total for hundreds of people, while most of them play with the funds on site, transfer them via the site, and/or withdraw them to use elsewhere very frequently the amount I'm holding hasn't been below 78% of X in quite a long time because other coins are constantly coming in. In reality some are actually saved or forgotten, but even if EVERYONE used ALL of their coins EVERY week there is no particular reason 78% or more of the 'blockchain' coins wouldn't keep sitting still.

It means absolutely nothing.

Furthermore, if people desire bitcoin for savings that just means they are that much more desired.

[DoomDumas]

If people are hoarding it just shows that people value most of their Bitcoins much more than the current price level.
It also shows that 60-80% of the Bitcoin community have a positive faith on the future value of Bitcoin otherwise they would had sold their coins making them circulate.

You're asuming most here are smart and know what they're doing = FAIL!

+1


My point of view, after reading a complete night about this..
It does'nt take in account "lost" coin.. I presume 10-15 % coins are lost forever.  Other factors have not been taken in account enought seriously.. like online wallet, exchanges wallet..

IMHO no more than 50% BTC are hoarded..  and this is not bad, because those hoarding coins beleive to a much much higher value in years to come.

The thing I VERY DISLIKE : this paper/research is paid by Citi Group (one of the most disgracefull bank) so, I think they want/have started the begining of reputation downgrade on BTC.. Brigning those kind of false info to the mass media, they sure dont have good intention, as a bank..

As other have state, the "media circus" have taken this erroneous 78% number and are doing sensionalism with it.. the bad thing is that most peoples listen and beleive those medias !  Shame on them !

Perso : I've spent, and will continue to spend 80%+ of my mining production, for goods or fiat currency, keeping arround 15% for when BTC will be exchangable at a ratio of more than 100 fiat by BTC !

my 2 satoshi

[johnyj]

Of course people are hoarding, especially when price is much higher than electricity cost now

And the best part: If there is a price crash, there will be more people buying and hoarding, I believe some true BTC belivers are just into this business for LONG TERM, regardless of its exchange value

I have a guess, eventually the BTC price will be decided by the electricity and mining efficiency. For GPU mining rigs, it is around 4$, below this value, many people will shut down their rigs and buy BTC, thus support the exchange rate. For FPGA mining rigs, it could go below 0.5$ before people shutdown rigs and buy BTC. For ASIC mining rigs, even if the price went to 0.01$, ASIC mining still could be profitable, so there will be much less BTC buy order from miners when the ASIC mining is in place

But this reasoning is based on traditional cost model, since the supply is constant, the wide spread of BTC might generate other effect

[marcus_of_augustus]

60-78% bitcoins being saved and not spent eh? ...  well I haven't had a close look at the methodology to determine this so don't put any weight in it myself but it sounds like an interesting number.

Bitcoiners in general are miserly, frugal bastards who work hard and save whatever they can get their hands on .... , so what? I could have guessed that anyway. These are the people who pick up the pieces after the grasshoppers have trashed the economy, yet again, once their extravagant, wasteful ways have run their inevitable course. The ants who get on and fix things and get them working again and saving again in case of the next 'lean patch'.

And frankly it doesn't matter that much anyway since the price is set at the margin where demand and supply is being met, not by the great mass that doesn't move and is essentially "off-the-market" for most rational prices you might dream up ... unless it does move and that I find will be unlikely to change significantly any time soon. Gold is exactly the same, only a small fraction of the total physical gold stocks is ever mobilised in trade .... in fact a good fraction of the annual physical trade is satisfied by newly mined gold, and this is exactly what makes it money par excellence (store of value role).