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Author Topic: What will the world look like in 10 years if Bitcoin succeeds?  (Read 8780 times)
flix (OP)
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October 15, 2015, 11:50:49 AM
 #1

We've had a million predictions of doom, all the bad things that can happen if Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies spread. We have also had an unending stream of "Bitcoin is dead" and "Bitcoin won't last another year" predictions.

What I would like is to try to imagine a best case scenario of how the world could change for the better if Bitcoin became as popular as e-mail or social networks and billions of people were using it.

So... what is your best case scenario for 2025?

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According to NIST and ECRYPT II, the cryptographic algorithms used in Bitcoin are expected to be strong until at least 2030. (After that, it will not be too difficult to transition to different algorithms.)
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October 15, 2015, 11:54:38 AM
 #2


I am interested to know also.
Even more, what if bitcoin would be the dominant currency in the future?
How would this work with taking loans for example? Would there be negative interest rates?
What would the investment climate look like?
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October 15, 2015, 12:19:41 PM
 #3

One thing I'd expect is further globalization. transfer fees would be (near to) nonexistent even internationally and moving big amounts of money would be easy. there could still be banks, people will still need loans and some would prefer to store their BTC there if they don't trust themselves for security.
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October 15, 2015, 12:23:51 PM
 #4

Beautiful, since the world looks better when you are rich, and we will all be rich.
As how it will actualyl look, well pretty much the same but we'll see lots of automated jobs, most jobs will be obsolete, some new ones will arise, and then the guys that held Bitcoin for 10 years will be hated because they'll be retired, so my advice is: never say you own many Bitcoins.
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October 15, 2015, 12:36:15 PM
 #5

We've had a million predictions of doom, all the bad things that can happen if Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies spread. We have also had an unending stream of "Bitcoin is dead" and "Bitcoin won't last another year" predictions.

What I would like is to try to imagine a best case scenario of how the world could change for the better if Bitcoin became as popular as e-mail or social networks and billions of people were using it.

So... what is your best case scenario for 2025?



Im thinking the knock on effects of bitcoin and blockchain technology are huge.  Look at the social change the internet has caused by changing how we transfer information...  Im hoping bitcoin tech can spread into politics and voting systems, if we can get rid of corruption at the core the world will be very different.
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October 15, 2015, 12:38:28 PM
 #6

People will probably use their Visa or mastercards to swap for their bitcoins .Moreover I think there will be no actual banks, the government has to implement Virtual Banks for Cryptocurrencies with highest security possible .
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October 15, 2015, 12:45:25 PM
 #7

I would want to see micro payments be implemented in every social media platform out there, not as a external applications, but built into it. You like what someone says, and you tip them... be it in facebook /

Twitter / Online games / Dating website ..... you name it. There should be no need to use ChangeTip or any other 3rd party.

You should not even think about payment for services... it should be automated, with a click of a single button... {everywhere.. not just selected shops} The poor people on this planet, should have free internet

access and be doing small tasks for payment on a global scale with Bitcoin. {No more PayPal or banks or WU with excessive fees} That is my view of a perfect Bitcoin world. 

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October 15, 2015, 12:49:33 PM
 #8

It will look like Bitcoin everywhere,
In the ads, mostly in the digital world but also in the street, billboards etc.
I would be proud that i learned about bitcoin in its early stage, it would be good Smiley
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October 15, 2015, 12:51:43 PM
 #9

I would be such a boss amongst friends as an early adopter.
flix (OP)
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October 15, 2015, 01:07:16 PM
Last edit: October 15, 2015, 01:42:41 PM by flix
 #10

OK, let me give it a shot....

1. Banks go the way of Newspapers.
They won't disappear, but they change focus to value-added services like lending, intermediation and lose their current massive scale. Many disappear or break up, the most flexible go online for everything and start going after clients in a global way. In 2025 surviving banks are more like those newspapers that have survived the blogging revolution: different business model, focus on quality and brand-recognition and permanently aware that there are a million alternatives out there ready to eat their lunch if they don't treat clients well.

2. Central banks go the way of the Postal Service.
They will still exist, still think that they matter and still perform some functions... but their influence will be hugely reduced. They will be almost universally ignored... just the same way as central bank presidents in dollarised Latin American countries just focus on supervision and fraud prevention and have little to say on monetary policy. In 2025 they will still be able to move interest rates and do QE... but the ease of capital flight to quality and yield will mean that they cannot use these tools as freely as they do now for fear of seeing an immediate reaction in the FX/Crypto markets which negates their intended effects.

3.Taxes will trend to fee-for-services and real estate.
As capital becomes more mobile and it becomes ever easier to escape tax-heavy jurisdictions, governments will tend to tax more heavily assets that cannot be moved (real estate) and also services that they provide (toll-road model). Tax competition will increase... countries and cities will try to become attractive for investors and residents through lower taxes and more choice. The world will look a bit more like Swizerland where taxes are mostly collected and spent at the Canton (regional) level.

4. Africa will become much richer.
As millions of people can suddenly interact directly and get paid by employers in the developed world or receive remittances from their families at zero cost and without their local governments easily confiscating them. Anyone with technical and language skills in Africa who can get online will suddenly be able to compete with US and European workers for jobs and wages. In 2025 people living in extreme poverty will be less than 5% of the world population.

5. More Peace.
The increased difficulty in collecting taxes or printing money for unpopular causes like war will mean that wars last less and are more limited in the harm that they do. We will see tax revolts as a form of anti-war protest, with millions of people refusing to pay VAT or income tax until the government listens to their cries for peace, and rulers will be unable to do anything to persecute such a massive passive, peaceful resistance movement.

6. Technological Renaissance.
As capital accumulation in the technology sector grows and is less stifled by taxes, regulations and monopolies... investment in R&D grows and the rate of technological advance increases. Technological and economic growth see exponential rates last seen in the Industrial Revolution or the Renaissance.
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October 15, 2015, 01:10:15 PM
Last edit: October 15, 2015, 01:24:31 PM by Amph
 #11

there will be tax evasion and unregulated activity all over the world, maybe is this the reason why gov don't want bitcoin to grow, by spreadig false info from time to time

there would be random rich guy, that were poor before, wealth would still be fucking unbalanced
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October 15, 2015, 01:15:16 PM
 #12

There will be fewer boom and bursts. Economy will grow more steadily as money cannot be created easily from thin air.

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October 15, 2015, 01:18:27 PM
 #13

The best case scenario would be if you walk out the street and met anybody, they don't give you the weird look when you mention the name bitcoin. I assume they would already know about decentralization, blockchain, see the overall benefit of it instead of associating bitcoin with some illegal currency used for illicit activities.

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October 15, 2015, 01:23:22 PM
 #14

the reason why gov don't want bitcoin to grow, by spreadig false info from tiem to time

i really think that the reason about why gov don't want bitcoin to grow is so simply, because they don't have the control, until they find the way to take the control, they will stay away from bitcoin.

btw about the main question, in general, there will new rich people yes, but maybe with better soul  than the current one...
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October 15, 2015, 01:25:13 PM
 #15

There would be lots of regulation over BTC and would be hard for the common user use BTC and stay under the law.

The banks would heavily use it and save money in the money transfer, but not much of the savings would be repassed to end consumers.

So I think bank's profits would increase, but not end user savings

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October 15, 2015, 01:25:57 PM
 #16

first of all everybody is going to want to get on up on the bitcoin train. banks are going to change their paper money to bitcoin and keep people's savings as bitcoin.

master card and other payment processors are going to want in so they will add bitcoin as an option at first but then switch to it completely. as you can see a lot of bitcoin credit cards as of today doing this.

but most important of all is that we are going to be the happiest of all people because we were here first before big companies could get their hands on it.

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October 15, 2015, 01:30:47 PM
 #17

If it succeeds, which means it becomes a global payment method accepted everywhere we'll all be rich so the world should be a very happy place for us, people who have at least a couple coins.

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October 15, 2015, 01:34:01 PM
 #18

the first thing that matters to me if bitcoin really succeeds is that there will be new tech related millionaires and even billionaires.
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October 15, 2015, 01:39:29 PM
 #19

OK, let me give it a shot....

1. Banks go the way of Newspapers.
They won't disappear, but they change focus to value-added services like lending, intermediation and lose their current massive scale. Many disappear or break up, the most flexible go online for everything and start going after clients in a global way. In 2025 surviving banks are more like those newspapers that have survived the blogging revolution: different business model, focus on quality and brand-recognition and permanently aware that there are a million alternatives out there ready to eat their lunch if they don't treat clients well.

2. Central banks go the way of the Postal Service.
They will still exist, still think that they matter and still perform some functions... but their influence will be hugely reduced. They will be almost universally ignored... just the same way as central bank presidents in dollarised Latin American countries just focus on supervision and fraud prevention and have little to say on monetary policy. In 2025 they will still be able to move interest rates and do QE... but the ease of capital flight to quality and yield will mean that they cannot use these tools as freely as they do now for fear of seeing an immediate reaction in the FX/Crypto markets which negates their intended effects.

3.Taxes will trend to fee-for-services and real estate.
As capital becomes more mobile and it becomes ever easier to escape tax-heavy jurisdictions, governments will tend to tax more heavily assets that cannot be moved (real estate) and also services that they provide (toll-road model). Tax competition will increase... countries and cities will try to become attractive for investors and residents through lower taxes and more choice. The world will look a bit more like Swizerland where taxes are mostly collected and spent at the Canton (regional) level.

4. Africa will become much richer.
As millions of people can suddenly interact directly and get paid by employers in the developed world or receive remittances from their families at zero cost and without their local governments easily confiscating them. Anyone with technical and language skills in Africa who can get online will suddenly be able to compete with US and European workers for jobs and wages. In 2025 people living in extreme poverty will be less than 5% of the world population.

5. More Peace.
The increased difficulty in collecting taxes or printing money for unpopular causes like war will mean that wars last less and are more limited in the harm that they do. We will see tax revolts as a form of anti-war protest, with millions of people refusing to pay VAT or income tax until the government listens to their cries for peace, and unable to do anything to persecute such a large passive, peaceful resistance movement.

6. Technological Renaissance.
As capital accumulation in the technology sector grows and is less stifled by taxes, regulations and monopolies... investment in R&D grows and the rate of technological advance increases. Technological and economic growth see exponential rates last seen in the Industrial Revolution or the Renaissance.


flix, excellent thinking.  I'd love to get your further thoughts about how the power-hungry politicians and regulators will find new ways to maintain their control.  I think you are onto something with the physical asset taxation, but I think there will be new options around transaction taxation that might be imposed on the bitcoin network.  Your thoughts?
flix (OP)
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October 15, 2015, 01:46:38 PM
 #20

Quote
I'd love to get your further thoughts about how the power-hungry politicians and regulators will find new ways to maintain their control.  I think you are onto something with the physical asset taxation, but I think there will be new options around transaction taxation that might be imposed on the bitcoin network.  Your thoughts?

I definitely don't expect them to give up their control easily. Right now they still don't see Bitcoin as a threat... but when Bitcoin gets to 50 or 100 million users they will definitely try to take over. The reason that attracts me most to Bitcoin, as opposed to other alternatives, is that it will be very difficult for them to do so. Even if they succeed in this... it is now so easy to fork Bitcoin or create altcoins that they will be chasing a moving target.

Also a tx tax (unless it is minimal) will make the networks that have it less competitive than those that don't, so users would mostly choose the free fork vs the govt. fork, even in the absence of other (eg: privacy) concerns.
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