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Author Topic: satoshi's logic is not so logic  (Read 2562 times)
TERA
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December 22, 2015, 05:01:29 AM
 #21

This is where bbqcoin steps in.
Bitcoin mining is now a specialized and very risky industry, just like gold mining. Amateur miners are unlikely to make much money, and may even lose money. Bitcoin is much more than just mining, though!
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December 22, 2015, 07:15:22 AM
 #22

I think the reasoning behind the quote really comes down to the network hash rates and mining be able to make a profit.  In the future block rewards will be very very small such as in 2030.  So at that time even with super efficient machines they will need high volume of transaction with miner fees to make it worthwhile.  So when the block rewards go away there needs to be enough miner fees to support them otherwise they will go away.  No miners no network no bitcoin.
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December 22, 2015, 07:24:48 AM
 #23

He never said that as far as I know , but he said the following :

Feb. 14, 2010: "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume." which means 2030 (if we start counting from the day  he  posted the quote on the forums ) and not 2020 .

Exactly. When did he ever say this? Don't just go around spreading bad rumours about Bitcoin. Can you give us a link to where he said this, or is it just fake?
coinplus
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December 22, 2015, 01:31:21 PM
 #24

He never said that as far as I know , but he said the following :

Feb. 14, 2010: "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume." which means 2030 (if we start counting from the day  he  posted the quote on the forums ) and not 2020 .

Exactly. When did he ever say this? Don't just go around spreading bad rumours about Bitcoin. Can you give us a link to where he said this, or is it just fake?

It seems rumor. I tried to find anything related to this, But I could not.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3;sa=showPosts

Bitcoin will stay here for ever. We need not to worry on the future of bitcoin for any reason.
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December 22, 2015, 02:07:40 PM
 #25

But how can it be mainstream with 7 transaction per second ? And if it's not mainstream, satoshi's logic woul tell us that bitcoin will disappear by 2020  Huh

He also designed the original code to be modular and easily upgradeable. The current limit on upgrading block sizes (to increase the transaction / second output) is dependent on the block size increase debate that is going on. I guess he didn't foresee all the politics of this!
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December 22, 2015, 02:10:53 PM
 #26

Satoshi planned to take care of the blocksize limit years ago. Unfortunately development has pretty much halted and it has become just one of many dead-code open source projects.

His logic and plan was fine, his trust in others to resolve problems in a timely fashion, not so much.

Even if a solution is found, it's basically impossible to implement now without completely ravaging the existing ecosystem.

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iv4n
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December 22, 2015, 02:24:45 PM
 #27

Satoshi said, by 2020 bitcoin is eitheir mainstream either will disappear (quotation welcome, i didn't find it)
But how can it be mainstream with 7 transaction per second ? And if it's not mainstream, satoshi's logic woul tell us that bitcoin will disappear by 2020  Huh

By 2020. So there is 4 for years even if he said that. And 4 years is a lot of time, lot of things can happen.

If we look what bitcoin made from 2011 until now its not impossible that in 2020 we will see btc much bigger and much more people will know about it.
I don't think btc will disappear ever, that sounds almost impossible.

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December 22, 2015, 02:35:57 PM
 #28

Satoshi said, by 2020 bitcoin is eitheir mainstream either will disappear (quotation welcome, i didn't find it)
But how can it be mainstream with 7 transaction per second ? And if it's not mainstream, satoshi's logic woul tell us that bitcoin will disappear by 2020  Huh
Don't treat Satoshi's words as a prophecy. He was wrong about future of bitcoin himself, it is hard to predict future of invention so outstanding and new as bitcoin.
Total adoption could happen not in 2020 but instead 10, or 20 years later. As far I can tell bitcoin is not going to disappear in near future. That's for sure.
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December 22, 2015, 03:17:18 PM
 #29

He never said that as far as I know , but he said the following :

Feb. 14, 2010: "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume." which means 2030 (if we start counting from the day  he  posted the quote on the forums ) and not 2020 .

Exactly. When did he ever say this? Don't just go around spreading bad rumours about Bitcoin. Can you give us a link to where he said this, or is it just fake?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48.msg329#msg329
600watt
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December 22, 2015, 07:37:10 PM
 #30

Scaling/increasing block size debates would solve this issue.


In case you missed it. This issue will not be solved any time soon. If ever...


i like it when you are talking about missing itSmiley
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December 22, 2015, 08:51:06 PM
 #31

The only fear I see is, when the mining will be over and all the coins will get mined in total, i.e.; 21M...
What will happen that day is unexpected and that's the only reason why I think that could be a do or die situation that might take place in the history of Bitcoins...

CoinCidental
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December 23, 2015, 08:44:12 AM
 #32

The only fear I see is, when the mining will be over and all the coins will get mined in total, i.e.; 21M...
What will happen that day is unexpected and that's the only reason why I think that could be a do or die situation that might take place in the history of Bitcoins...

Your "only fear" is about 125 years away from happening if it could  ..... But there's no way it will happen if bitcoin is still going strong in 2140 people will be using bitcents or whatever we know today as "dust"  to buy real world  stuff..... Smiley
Nameless Coin
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December 23, 2015, 10:04:31 AM
 #33

Well I don't think that bitcoin well disappear so don't just panic. I doubt that bitcoin will just go with this amount of money is accumulated. The only what can go if all the government just want to ban bitcoin that you are just fucked.
With this new generations people will accept bitcoin more and more and in 2016 a lot of company's will adopt bitcoin.
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December 23, 2015, 03:32:29 PM
 #34

In year 2020 I don't really see that bitcoin will disappear.
I think bitcoin will rise to 2000 dollars and be kinda stable around that price.
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December 23, 2015, 05:31:56 PM
 #35

In year 2020 I don't really see that bitcoin will disappear.
I think bitcoin will rise to 2000 dollars and be kinda stable around that price.

I think 2k in 2020 is too conservative....
2k will probably be breached by June/July 2016
A lot of wow wow happening soon Smiley
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December 23, 2015, 08:37:00 PM
 #36

Incorrect.  Supposedly its peak is 56,000 per second.
...
I stand corrected, make that 'over 10 seconds.'
But, they charge you with big fee & you're not anonymous at all.
No, 'they' do not charge me a big fee.  They charge me no fee at all. The seller pays the fee.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, charges *everybody* a huge fee you may not fully understand, so here's TL;DR:
Your transactions are paid for by Bitcoin's inflating base money supply, AKA "by printing money." The miners get paid 25 BTC every ~10 min for processing transactions. Plus the tx fees.
Pricey Shocked
Quote
Also, your credit/debit card could be stolen & sold on darknet, you could get yourself into big trouble.
My CC offers consumer protection. If stolen, all I need to do is report it, and my money magically reappears.
If you accidentally all your BTC, OTOH, it's gone. You're just sh1t out of luck Undecided
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I'm sure when bitcoin blocksize problem is solved, we could process more transaction
You mean 'if,' then we'll talk. Til that happy day...


I like this post because it points out the good and bad of bitcoin.

Bitcoin is as good as cash money or gold. If it gets stolen you cannot claim it back.
Creditcards give guarantees but require a bank knowing who you are. and transactions cost money.

Therefore both will always coexist.


Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
AndySt
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December 23, 2015, 10:27:52 PM
 #37

Well above the number of transactions continue to work even though I disagree with a categorical phrase of Satoshi. Development will continue beyond 2020.
pereira4
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December 23, 2015, 10:59:39 PM
 #38

Scaling/increasing block size debates would solve this issue.


In case you missed it. This issue will not be solved any time soon. If ever...
Wrong, isue is already solved with segwit + lightning network, Bitcoin is already a success, now we just need to sit down and let the developers keep doing a good job and be positive about it, in case you don't know how to code and present actual improvements, it's all we can do. So hold and enjoy, Bitcoin will not be stopped and will scale, it's a matter of time.

Also notice that satoshi's quote doesn't describe mainstream usage, transaction volume could be high without mainstream usage.
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