Bitcoin Forum
October 16, 2018, 10:08:06 PM *
News: Make sure you are not using versions of Bitcoin Core other than 0.17.0 [Torrent], 0.16.3, 0.15.2, or 0.14.3. More info.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: CDF: Cumulative distribution function...  (Read 1288 times)
edric
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 546
Merit: 501



View Profile
October 18, 2015, 09:37:18 AM
 #1

I am trying to understand the difference between 1 day, 7 day, 30 day pool luck and CDF.  Can someone help me understand?  If one day luck or seven day luck is really low why would CFD be above 63%?  Thanks.

Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1539727686
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1539727686

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1539727686
Reply with quote  #2

1539727686
Report to moderator
edric
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 546
Merit: 501



View Profile
October 18, 2015, 10:03:38 AM
 #2

No one?.... Anyone?  Bueller?

kano
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2604
Merit: 1056


Linux since 1997 RedHat 4


View Profile
October 18, 2015, 11:19:52 AM
 #3

It's his day off.

CDF shows the upper or lower expectation of getting the value in question in a Poisson distribution.

Note there's 2 commonly used - by ooc and me at least Smiley

There's the straight CDF of a single event
and the CDF[Erlang] of a set of events.

https://kano.is/index.php?k=pblocks
So like on my pool blocks page, the CDF on the right of each block shows the expectation that the Diff would occur better (lower) than the block's Diff
The most recent block has a Diff of 110.597% and a CDF of 0.669
i.e. ~2/3 of the time you'd expect each block to do better.

The top table shows the expectation that the number of blocks would get a lower Mean% Difficulty.
In this case it's a very different result coz you are looking at a set of results, rather than just one.
i.e. if the pool found 100 Blocks, what's the chance it would do better?

In my pool's case, the last 100 CDF[Erl] is currently 0.3382 (Mean% Diff 95.56%) which is super good and beats the crap out of shitty pools like Eligius Smiley
That 0.3382 means that you'd only expect that to be better ~1/3 of the time for a range of 100 blocks.
As the number of events increases, the CDF[Erl] will decrease for the same Mean% since it becomes rarer that you'd continue to get the same luck for more events if the Mean% Diff was below 100%

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
FreeNode IRC: irc.freenode.net channel #kano.is Majority developer of the ckpool code
Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!