next difficulty increase

[mdude77]

I used to check bitcoincharts to get an estimate of the difficulty increase.  Then one day, that value disappeared.  So I started "shopping around", and found this:

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

It seemed to be pretty reliable.  Then one day, for kicks, I checked out bitcoincharts again.  Lo and behold, the difficulty estimate was back. 

The values between bitcoincharts and dot-bit were pretty close, but today they are wildly different.  Is this a hint of the future?

As of now bitcoincharts says:

Code:

Estimated	3293791 in 2016 blks

dot-bit.org says:

Code:

Next 	207648 	02/11/2012 15:38 	12'709'063.05 	x3.85

I'm assuming dot-bit has a glitch somewhere, cause I don't have my asics yet!!

M

[1715372660]

1715372660

[heinz]

Needs time to average out. Its always off for a few days.

[bcpokey]

Not to be a jerk, but it's not that hard to see why:

Last 120    205632-205633    30/10/2012 00:16    12'709'063.05    x3.85
Last 10    205632-205633    30/10/2012 00:16    12'709'063.05    x3.85

Difficulty just changed I believe? dot-bit is basing it's calculation on the last 1 block. That's going to be a vastly flawed calculation.

[helloworld]

I used to check bitcoincharts to get an estimate of the difficulty increase.  Then one day, that value disappeared.  So I started "shopping around", and found this:

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

It seemed to be pretty reliable.  Then one day, for kicks, I checked out bitcoincharts again.  Lo and behold, the difficulty estimate was back. 

The values between bitcoincharts and dot-bit were pretty close, but today they are wildly different.  Is this a hint of the future?

As of now bitcoincharts says:

Code:

Estimated	3293791 in 2016 blks

dot-bit.org says:

Code:

Next 	207648 	02/11/2012 15:38 	12'709'063.05 	x3.85

I'm assuming dot-bit has a glitch somewhere, cause I don't have my asics yet!!

M

And here is a 3rd, completely different estimate:

3,294,514

How is it calculated?

[bcpokey]

I used to check bitcoincharts to get an estimate of the difficulty increase.  Then one day, that value disappeared.  So I started "shopping around", and found this:

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

It seemed to be pretty reliable.  Then one day, for kicks, I checked out bitcoincharts again.  Lo and behold, the difficulty estimate was back. 

The values between bitcoincharts and dot-bit were pretty close, but today they are wildly different.  Is this a hint of the future?

As of now bitcoincharts says:

Code:

Estimated	3293791 in 2016 blks

dot-bit.org says:

Code:

Next 	207648 	02/11/2012 15:38 	12'709'063.05 	x3.85

I'm assuming dot-bit has a glitch somewhere, cause I don't have my asics yet!!

M

And here is a 3rd, completely different estimate:

3,294,514

How is it calculated?

How is that completely different?

Bitcoin charts: 3,293,791
bitcoindifficulty: 3,294,514

They are different by less than 3/10th of 1 percent.

[helloworld]

I used to check bitcoincharts to get an estimate of the difficulty increase.  Then one day, that value disappeared.  So I started "shopping around", and found this:

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

It seemed to be pretty reliable.  Then one day, for kicks, I checked out bitcoincharts again.  Lo and behold, the difficulty estimate was back. 

The values between bitcoincharts and dot-bit were pretty close, but today they are wildly different.  Is this a hint of the future?

As of now bitcoincharts says:

Code:

Estimated	3293791 in 2016 blks

dot-bit.org says:

Code:

Next 	207648 	02/11/2012 15:38 	12'709'063.05 	x3.85

I'm assuming dot-bit has a glitch somewhere, cause I don't have my asics yet!!

M

And here is a 3rd, completely different estimate:

3,294,514

How is it calculated?

How is that completely different?

Bitcoin charts: 3,293,791
bitcoindifficulty: 3,294,514

They are different by less than 3/10th of 1 percent.

Sorry partially different.

What I meant was, although they have arrived at a similar number, they must be using a different calculation.

[Unacceptable]

Or made at a different time,even a few seconds means you'll get a little different reading 

[helloworld]

Or made at a different time,even a few seconds means you'll get a little different reading 

Yeah maybe. I tried refreshing those two sites at various times and they're always different. But you could be right.

[Dexter770221]

Bunch of statistics:
http://blockexplorer.com/q
Estimates:
http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

[DeathAndTaxes]

Or made at a different time,even a few seconds means you'll get a little different reading 

Yeah maybe. I tried refreshing those two sites at various times and they're always different. But you could be right.

It is highly unlikely they recalculate the difficulty on every single page refresh.  Both sites likely calculate and STORE the difficulty periodically (say once every hour) and page refreshes simply pull the stored value.   Unless both sites use the exact same timestamps and have the exact same blocks in memory at the exact same time they are going to get different values. (Different Input -> Different Output).