ASICs - which should you choose?

[kwoody]

Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?

[1714851938]

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[1714851938]

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[organofcorti]

Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?

This is what I based my last post on:



It's lower than 200W. Maybe you were looking at earlier posts?

As far as the rest, I don't know. I play with numbers, then get other people to explain to me how to deal with the hardware

Edit: I'd forgotten to link to the lastest post in the OP. Sorry about that.

[crazyates]

Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?

Tom has said the 54GH/s unit will use 100-120W, and will take either a 4pin molex, or a DC barrel jack.

[organofcorti]

Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?

Tom has said the 54GH/s unit will use 100-120W, and will take either a 4pin molex, or a DC barrel jack.

The quote was along the lines of "a 1000W PSU will power 8 to 10 of the 54 Ghps bASICs". I used the more conservative estimate of 1000/8 = 125W.

[MrTeal]

Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?

Tom has said the 54GH/s unit will use 100-120W, and will take either a 4pin molex, or a DC barrel jack.

The quote was along the lines of "a 1000W PSU will power 8 to 10 of the 54 Ghps bASICs". I used the more conservative estimate of 8/100 = 125W.

That's from the BTCFPGA Forum

We are expecting the 27Gh/s units to use between 50-60 watts and the 54Gh/s units to use between 100-120 watts give or take

this is estimated data - and will not be completely correct but it gives you a ballpark and as close as an estimate as our competitor friends have on their units

[organofcorti]

That's from the BTCFPGA Forum

We are expecting the 27Gh/s units to use between 50-60 watts and the 54Gh/s units to use between 100-120 watts give or take

this is estimated data - and will not be completely correct but it gives you a ballpark and as close as an estimate as our competitor friends have on their units

I was getting the info from this post:

Hot off the presses

I personally use these on my fpga rigs - one of these 1000 watt babies will easily power 8-10 54Gh/s bASICS

I believe that should send that debate to it's final resting place.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.2060;topicseen

[grishnakh]

What about a different approach to the difficulty prediction: Calculating how much of ASIC hardware is added to the network reach an equilibrium for the time to reach  ROI for the ASIC.

 My prediction is that the network will find an equilibrium where the time frame to reach ROI for an ASIC device is somewhere comparable to current GPU mining. With the 25 btc block award when ASICs hit the market, it can be argued that the ROI time frame will double from current GPU mining.
If current ROI predictions for a GPU has been about 6 months, a reasonable estimate would be that the network will reach an equilibrium difficulty with ASIC ROI of 1 year. (If ASIC ROI is over 1 year, less people are willing to invest in mining, thus reaching an equilibrium at 1 year) What is the difficulty with the current generation ASIC devices and prices?
If the difficulty will jump to a value where buying an asic would pay itself in 1 year, then it would be about 20x of the current value (assuming 60gh/s, 100w, price 1300 dollars, btc price at current level using bitcoinX.com calculator).
At the current ASIC prices of 50 Mh/dollar the network total of about 500 TH/s would cost about 10 million dollars. This is probably more than the price of the current GPU network.

[bitboyben]

Working on some difficulty curves along those lines. But after the long weekend...

[joshv06]

Working on some difficulty curves along those lines. But after the long weekend...

I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.

[Xfinity]

I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.

True that

[crazyates]

I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.

True that

It won't play a big difference for the first few months, but going from 2 Singles to 2 Avalons can mean the difference between $15/mon and $90/mon in costs.

[bitcoindaddy]

Working on some difficulty curves along those lines. But after the long weekend...

I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.

I would absolutely worry about power usage. It will mean the difference between and profitable and non-profitable miner in the future. You may only be looking at the price or the hash rate now, but later, power usage will be the only thing keeping your head above water.

[organofcorti]

What about a different approach to the difficulty prediction: Calculating how much of ASIC hardware is added to the network reach an equilibrium for the time to reach  ROI for the ASIC.

 My prediction is that the network will find an equilibrium where the time frame to reach ROI for an ASIC device is somewhere comparable to current GPU mining. With the 25 btc block award when ASICs hit the market, it can be argued that the ROI time frame will double from current GPU mining.
If current ROI predictions for a GPU has been about 6 months, a reasonable estimate would be that the network will reach an equilibrium difficulty with ASIC ROI of 1 year. (If ASIC ROI is over 1 year, less people are willing to invest in mining, thus reaching an equilibrium at 1 year) What is the difficulty with the current generation ASIC devices and prices?
If the difficulty will jump to a value where buying an asic would pay itself in 1 year, then it would be about 20x of the current value (assuming 60gh/s, 100w, price 1300 dollars, btc price at current level using bitcoinX.com calculator).
At the current ASIC prices of 50 Mh/dollar the network total of about 500 TH/s would cost about 10 million dollars. This is probably more than the price of the current GPU network.

I'm not sure about this. Here's an example: Miners don't switch off as long as it doesn't cost them to mine. If, when all the pre-purchased ASICs come on line D,  exchange rate, and electricity costs are all at a level that means the break even point is 2 years instead of one, then as long as they are still mining they still earn and difficulty won't drop. It may even increase as people finding out about bitcoin mining try it for the first time.

Your suggestion is simple, but that simplicity is obscuring many assumptions about how and why people mine. Not all miners are as logical as you.

[organofcorti]

Working on some difficulty curves along those lines. But after the long weekend...

I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.

I would absolutely worry about power usage. It will mean the difference between and profitable and non-profitable miner in the future. You may only be looking at the price or the hash rate now, but later, power usage will be the only thing keeping your head above water.

I would also worry. I can't see US$/kWh decreasing, and as D increases low energy consumption will be key. In fact I predict that in a year miners will worry more about electricity costs than anything else. I also predict that within a year all ASIC manufacturers will make efficiency their top priority so that ASICs will have very similar hashes/joule and hashrate/$, and will have differential pricing based mostly on usability features (standalone wifi vs connected to a computer, flashy paint job, dinner with some celeb etc).

[bitboyben]

Many may not want extra features if they use too much power or are redundant after more than one device! (Of course there are a few celebs I'd like to have dinner with)

[Xfinity]

I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.

True that

It won't play a big difference for the first few months, but going from 2 Singles to 2 Avalons can mean the difference between $15/mon and $90/mon in costs.

Yeah, it all depends on what hardware you buy. But reducing running costs is key to remain profitable in the long run.

[organofcorti]

I was going to do an update for the new bASIC specs, but then I read that they won't be shipped with PSUs, which I'll need to include in the ROI costs. What sort of wattage would the average buyer use - how many are buying multiples? Or should I just assume a 200W PSU is being used for one bASIC?

Also, I know how much PSUs cost where I live and I have no idea which places are preferable for purchasing such products. So if someone has an idea how much people in the US pay for say a 200W PSU, it would save me some google time.

[bcpokey]

I was going to do an update for the new bASIC specs, but then I read that they won't be shipped with PSUs, which I'll need to include in the ROI costs. What sort of wattage would the average buyer use - how many are buying multiples? Or should I just assume a 200W PSU is being used for one bASIC?

Also, I know how much PSUs cost where I live and I have no idea which places are preferable for purchasing such products. So if someone has an idea how much people in the US pay for say a 200W PSU, it would save me some google time.

newegg(.com) is the go-to computer hardware store for most of the US and Canada. Bastards just have to be located in California too, so I'm the only one that gets charged tax (well and 34million others but they don't count).

200W PSUs tend to be notoriously cost ineffecient (I wouldn't trust most of the sub $30 offerings with my enemies computer components) though.
I think the Antec EarthWatts 380D is probably one of the better low cost solutions out there (~$45 for 32A combined on 12V rails), though I will admit I've never really looked that hard for low power items.

EDIT: also a sweet seasonic 300W on sale for $39.99, 80% Bronze and all that.

[organofcorti]

newegg(.com) is the go-to computer hardware store for most of the US and Canada. Bastards just have to be located in California too, so I'm the only one that gets charged tax (well and 34million others but they don't count).

200W PSUs tend to be notoriously cost ineffecient (I wouldn't trust most of the sub $30 offerings with my enemies computer components) though.
I think the Antec EarthWatts 380D is probably one of the better low cost solutions out there (~$45 for 32A combined on 12V rails), though I will admit I've never really looked that hard for low power items.

EDIT: also a sweet seasonic 300W on sale for $39.99, 80% Bronze and all that.

That was quick - thanks mate. I'll update with an extra $40 included in the cost to purchase.

[organofcorti]

I've published a belated update using the following specs;



All the pretty charts are here:

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/12/94-asic-choices-update-24th-december.html

Enjoy!