Official 2015 Bubble Thread

[the_poet]

I do not think there will be a bubble in 2015. The price may go to $350, but not much higher. There is no catalyst for price rise extremely.

I wanna know what youre frist thought was when you saw $500.-

IMO we're going to $1000.-+

My thought was the same, but my fear is that we go back to $300.

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[Hyena]

My thought was the same, but my fear is that we go back to $300.

I actually expect the same thing. A temporary setback. There is always a correction after such a humongous surge. I sold 0.5 btc at stamp (495$ per coin) and placed buy orders at 320, 350, 370 and 390. so now, whatever happens, I feel as if I have gained something out of this.

[jehst]

Props to op. Called it. Front page CNN/NYtimes/Wall Street Journal incoming. General public FOMO incoming. Four digits incoming.

[afbitcoins]

Resistance coming up, will it spike here or push through to top half of that channel ?

[afbitcoins]

My call for resistance approaching was spot on!  

Now I'm guessing likely scenario is bitcoin might go into mini bearish phase but stay above the $320 level.
With halving coming ever closer, before long it will be back to insane bull mode though. Good chance to buy in might come up for those that missed the first leg.

[Hyena]

My call for resistance approaching was spot on!  

Now I'm guessing likely scenario is bitcoin might go into mini bearish phase but stay above the $320 level.
With halving coming ever closer, before long it will be back to insane bull mode though. Good chance to buy in might come up for those that missed the first leg.

we're probably going to retest that resistance line in a couple of days. and we will break through.

[jaredboice]

My call for resistance approaching was spot on!  

Now I'm guessing likely scenario is bitcoin might go into mini bearish phase but stay above the $320 level.
With halving coming ever closer, before long it will be back to insane bull mode though. Good chance to buy in might come up for those that missed the first leg.

we're probably going to retest that resistance line in a couple of days. and we will break through.

Hyena for the win!  I think I concur sir. 

Looking at the 4 year chart, any time Bitcoin ever started to go parabolic after a complete bull & bear cycle, there was never a time it didn't go into full-retard rally mode.  If it doesn't continue an uptrend from here (minus the occasional pullback) then it will be a first

[jehst]

My call for resistance approaching was spot on!  

Now I'm guessing likely scenario is bitcoin might go into mini bearish phase but stay above the $320 level.
With halving coming ever closer, before long it will be back to insane bull mode though. Good chance to buy in might come up for those that missed the first leg.

we're probably going to retest that resistance line in a couple of days. and we will break through.

Hyena for the win!  I think I concur sir.  

Looking at the 4 year chart, any time Bitcoin ever started to go parabolic after a complete bull & bear cycle, there was never a time it didn't go into full-retard rally mode.  If it doesn't continue an uptrend from here (minus the occasional pullback) then it will be a first

Well we've had a lot of "first time" events recently. For example:

1. First time bitcoin has ever been lower after two years.
2. First time bitcoin has ever gone lower than previous bubble's top (266).

All patterns will be broken, IMO. But I hope you're right.

[jaredboice]

My call for resistance approaching was spot on!  

Now I'm guessing likely scenario is bitcoin might go into mini bearish phase but stay above the $320 level.
With halving coming ever closer, before long it will be back to insane bull mode though. Good chance to buy in might come up for those that missed the first leg.

we're probably going to retest that resistance line in a couple of days. and we will break through.

Hyena for the win!  I think I concur sir.  

Looking at the 4 year chart, any time Bitcoin ever started to go parabolic after a complete bull & bear cycle, there was never a time it didn't go into full-retard rally mode.  If it doesn't continue an uptrend from here (minus the occasional pullback) then it will be a first

Well we've had a lot of "first time" events recently. For example:

1. First time bitcoin has ever been lower after two years.
2. First time bitcoin has ever gone lower than previous bubble's top (266).

All patterns will be broken, IMO. But I hope you're right.

I'll give you the Number 1. I wonder if all the FBI coins contributed to that (and subsequently Number 2).  They were reselling coins to market participants (bidders) who would have otherwise had to have bought from other willing market sellers (Silk Road was not likely to be selling all of those coins). This artificially increased sell pressure might have prevented important resistance lines from being broken earlier thereby affecting market sentiment.  Just a theory, but it stands to reason that the lower the FBI's stack gets, the more the market senses that this artificial increase in selling is going to be diminishing, allowing natural market forces to take shape.

As for Number 2, It didn't go that far below the previous ATH and it didn't stay there for all that long.  Observing the same chart, we can see that the $200 level appears to have been a fair zone of support throughout the cycle, minus some flash crashes

[SmoothCurves]

this is what im seeing

[jaredboice]

this is what im seeing

That fractal movement is certainly possible.  Either way, it's going to be trending up from here on out.  I can't see another dive into bearish territory at this point

[zimmah]

Props to op. Called it. Front page CNN/NYtimes/Wall Street Journal incoming. General public FOMO incoming. Four Five digits incoming.

FTFY

[romjpn]

For the moment the trend is not changing. Down and down (and it's morning in East Asia).

[zimmah]

My call for resistance approaching was spot on!  

Now I'm guessing likely scenario is bitcoin might go into mini bearish phase but stay above the $320 level.
With halving coming ever closer, before long it will be back to insane bull mode though. Good chance to buy in might come up for those that missed the first leg.

we're probably going to retest that resistance line in a couple of days. and we will break through.

Hyena for the win!  I think I concur sir.  

Looking at the 4 year chart, any time Bitcoin ever started to go parabolic after a complete bull & bear cycle, there was never a time it didn't go into full-retard rally mode.  If it doesn't continue an uptrend from here (minus the occasional pullback) then it will be a first

Well we've had a lot of "first time" events recently. For example:

1. First time bitcoin has ever been lower after two years.
2. First time bitcoin has ever gone lower than previous bubble's top (266).

All patterns will be broken, IMO. But I hope you're right.

I'll give you the Number 1. I wonder if all the FBI coins contributed to that (and subsequently Number 2).  They were reselling coins to market participants (bidders) who would have otherwise had to have bought from other willing market sellers (Silk Road was not likely to be selling all of those coins). This artificially increased sell pressure might have prevented important resistance lines from being broken earlier thereby affecting market sentiment.  Just a theory, but it stands to reason that the lower the FBI's stack gets, the more the market senses that this artificial increase in selling is going to be diminishing, allowing natural market forces to take shape.

As for Number 2, It didn't go that far below the previous ATH and it didn't stay there for all that long.  Observing the same chart, we can see that the $200 level appears to have been a fair zone of support throughout the cycle, minus some flash crashes

If this is true, and there's a good chance it is, than the next halving might produce even weirder results in the future.

Consider this, the halving will be relatively soon after the most bearish year, which, let's assume was at least partly caused by a higher than usual supply of Bitcoin (mostly through seized coins). But next year we will not only no longer have auctions, but also have the halving, so we will see much less sell pressure next year (especially towards the end).

Why is this significant?

1) people will finally realize just how limited the amount of Bitcoin are, which will increase not only the real price, but also the perceived value. (Scarcity will finally kick in) no more retarded "you will need at least 2000 bitcoins to retire comfortably in the next 20 years" posts.  

2) because next years reduced supply will be partly because of the halving, people might incorrectly assume every halving will have such a drastic effect on the bitcoin price, which means that in future halving before the halving even happens the price will overshoot by a large factor, in anticipation of even more scarcity (based on previous experience with how wild halving can become).

so while the extra coins the past years might have brought us the biggest bear market in history, in the next 4 years it might have an extremely bullish side effect.

[jehst]

Unless we bounce hard and resume climbing in the next 36 hours, then the bubble is likely canceled.

[jaredboice]

Unless we bounce hard and resume climbing in the next 36 hours, then the bubble is likely canceled.

I definitely agree that it needs to resume the trend soon.  I'd preferably like to see it get back above $400 by early next week.

[Dilla]

Unless we bounce hard and resume climbing in the next 36 hours, then the bubble is likely canceled.

yep. hopefully it continues, although unlikely since everyone is so conditioned to the bear market and extra sell happy.

[afbitcoins]

Bitcoin Primed



I've shared this idea on my blog and TradingView thought I might as well add it to the official bubble thread too.

I feel my bullish ideas provide a contrary opinion to the many bearish ideas expressed on Trading View currently.

In log price chart there is a well defined bull channel, shown in green which goes back to 2012 (and possibly earlier if MtGox data were available). Recent spike up to $500 ended exactly on midpoint of the uptrending channel (supporting the validity for the trendlines). Other evidence for these trendlines is provided by the upper trendline of the channel which supported bitcoin multiple times while it was in bubble territory before finally giving way as the price went on to reach its post bubble low.

The recent spike is reminicent of ‘mini’ bubble in bitcoin in 2012 before the huge bull moves began.

In the short term if horizontal resistance at $320 doesn’t hold then price should find solid support at around $270 ish which will be a great place to go long if it gets that low, with sell stop under the channel.

With bitcoin already very depressed after the collapse of the last bubble there is plenty of room on the upside. Bitcoin can get past previous all time highs while still in the channel, before even getting into crazy bubble territory.

For fun I’ve shown possible path price might take as the halving mania and price pump begins to take hold using some black arrows.