[Loan] Seeking 15 BTC with 96% change of ~5% ROI in less than 24 hours

[RantinRave]

First off, I must say that I'm VERY excited to be posting here to hopefully gain to rep and gain some people some easy money. The whole idea behind this is quite interesting and if I could fund it myself I would. Unfortunately I can't. So that's why I'm coming to the bitcoin guys for some funding

What do I need: 15 BTC
When do I need it: November 14th at the earliest

How will I do this?
The idea behind this is simple and has been out there for many years. Sports Arbing/Hedging the idea behind this rarely works because the house has an INSANE edge around 10% to be exactly. So if you post 1 BTC on Team A to win and 1 BTC on Team B to win*. You in theory would break even, right? Wrong. As any sports bettor knows you lose because of the vig.

Well, what if you could bet WITHOUT the vig? That's exactly what we are doing on the first book. We are using a sportsbook that accepts bitcoins to make the first wager.

What about the 2nd bet? Well that's where things get "fun" and I can use a semi-niche of mine. There's plenty of online sportsbooks that have money that is hard to cashout. So people sell this money at a discount. Around a 15% discount. So pretty much for every 1 BTC we wager on the 2nd sportsbook it only costs us .85 BTC.

I'm sure the idea is very confusing and I'm more than willing to explain this in detail to anybody that needs to.

Please PM me if you are serious. I will provide a google spreadsheet for tracking and show you what exactly we can do!

[1715683423]

1715683423

[1715683423]

1715683423

[RantinRave]

So I just did the math and I'll be able to give you a 96% chance of getting 2BTC on a 15BTC investment.

Worst case scenario is .. after 24 hours you get 15 BTC back

[underminer]

Wait for it.

[jwzguy]

How much BTC are you sending him, underminer? 96% odds sound pretty good.

[underminer]

Waaaaait for it.

[RantinRave]

Please no trolling/thread capping please. I'm pretty stoked about getting this rolling and somebody who wants to do business.

Like I stated in the OP the worst case scenario is that you get all your bit coins back after 24 hours

I'm more than willing to share more information with the investor, but here's what it comes to:

1st -   50.00% (Bet 1BTC. If won on 2nd book then ship back 15BTC plus 50% of winnings if hits on the 1st sportsbook ...)
2nd -   75.00% (Bet 2BTC. If won on 2nd book then ship back 15BTC plus 50% of winnings if hits on the 1st sportsbook ...)
3rd -   87.50% (Bet 4BTC. If won on 2nd book then ship back 15BTC plus 50% of winnings if hits on the 1st sportsbook ...)
4th -   93.75% (Bet 8BTC. If won on 2nd book then ship back 15BTC plus 50% of winnings if hits on the 1st sportsbook ...)

So pretty much what you are doing is flipping a coin 4 times. If it hits heads every single time then you just get your 15BTC back. If it hits tails any of the of the 5 times then you get your 5% earnings.

The ROI all depends upon the discounted money that is purchased. So for example, the left column is the discount money is purchased at. Middle column is money that will be earned. Last is the amount we should earn:

Purchased at X Value | Total Value Earned ($) | Split Between 2 ($)
99%   0.75   0.375
98%   1.5   0.75
97%   2.25   1.125
96%   3   1.5
95%   3.75   1.875
94%   4.5   2.25
93%   5.25   2.625
92%   6   3
91%   6.75   3.375
90%   7.5   3.75
89%   8.25   4.125
88%   9   4.5
87%   9.75   4.875
86%   10.5   5.25
85%   11.25   5.625
84%   12   6
83%   12.75   6.375
82%   13.5   6.75
81%   14.25   7.125
80%   15   7.5
79%   15.75   7.875
78%   16.5   8.25
77%   17.25   8.625
76%   18   9
75%   18.75   9.375

Usually the money is purchased anywhere between 75-85%, but with the market so flooded now it's easy to get it cheaper.

Any questions, PLEASE PM or post in thread.

Thanks!

[Projects]

Are you kidding me

[RantinRave]

Are you kidding me

no I'm not.

If you are going to say something like this at least give me some constructive criticism. For example:
1. Do you not think the idea will work?
2. Does the math not make sense?
3. Do you not understand the avenues that will be required to get the $ and hedge the wagers?
4. Is it because of my low post count and/or new member status?
5. Is it because I'm not providing any information about myself?

And if this is the case just let me know AND why. Honestly this can be a huge opportunity for the right person.so just because you have a problem with it don't troll the thread. You've never tried it before so you can't prove one way or the other. I have everything out there ...

Feel free to post what you think is wrong, right, or obsurd with this request.

I'm more than willing to give information about myself if that is what's needed.

[Projects]

I know all about sports betting.
I did matched betting for many years, along with arbing and hedging and trading on the exchanges.
I know it can be very profitable and minimal risk to no risk if done correctly that is not the problem.
The problem is you are a brand new user asking who has headed straight to the loan section asking for a loan.

[RantinRave]

I know all about sports betting.
I did matched betting for many years, along with arbing and hedging and trading on the exchanges.
I know it can be very profitable and minimal risk to no risk if done correctly that is not the problem.
The problem is you are a brand new user asking who has headed straight to the loan section asking for a loan.

THANK YOU!

Now at least I have a little something to work with. Well, I do know its hard to gain rep in a new forum. I also know that it does that time for most. If anybody wants to talk one on one or needs me to give some personal info I would be more than willing. So just PM me of needed.

[Vod]

This should be in gambling, not lending.

[Projects]

This should be in gambling, not lending.

Well technically it is a loan request - but for gambling.
I wouldnt condone borrowing money to gamble with nor lend money personally for gambling with.

[AndrewBUD]

People really need to hang out for a while... Get to know the forum a bit prior to asking for such things...

[BurtW]

Are all these bets placed in BTC or USD?

[RantinRave]

Are all these bets placed in BTC or USD?

Bets are placed in BTC on one.site but USD on the other.

Mods if this needs to go in gambling feel free to move it.

Other than that I'm thinking a few trades under my belt wouldn't hurt before I go out a request a loan. Lol

[Vod]

Mods if this needs to go in gambling feel free to move it.

The mods are not your servants.

You have the ability to move it where it belongs by yourself.

[RantinRave]

The mods are not your servants.

You have the ability to move it where it belongs by yourself.

Nice one.

While I move it can you go ahead and do yourself a favour ... go find a girl and get laid. FFS.

[BurtW]

Question:  you are asking for 15 BTC, or about 15 x 11 = $165 (at the moment) to invest in an "almost sure thing".

So, why don't you borrow $165 on a low interest rate credit card or from a friend or family member, run your system and make the money yourself!

If it works as well as you say then you will be wealthy in no time at all and be able to buy all the BTC you want.

[mute20]

High risk loan if my experience tells me anything.

[BurtW]

High risk loan if my experience tells me anything.

I beg to differ.  This is a very low risk loan if you don't make the loan

[Projects]

High risk loan if my experience tells me anything.

I beg to differ.  This is a very low risk loan if you don't make the loan

touché

[RantinRave]

Question:  you are asking for 15 BTC, or about 15 x 11 = $165 (at the moment) to invest in an "almost sure thing".

So, why don't you borrow $165 on a low interest rate credit card or from a friend or family member, run your system and make the money yourself!

If it works as well as you say then you will be wealthy in no time at all and be able to buy all the BTC you want.

I COULD do that. And pretty much what I'm going to start doing as of next week since I'm getting so much flack from this thread. I originally opened this because I wanted to go partners with somebody and gain some rep in thread. Silly me I guess.

Will I get wealthy? probably not, but I do think it'll be a good source of extra $. But like you say, if it works .. screw it. At least I'm making money. Assuming a standard wager is around 10BTC and probably three wagers are made per day. It's probably makes sense that I can get around 1BTC per day.

[RantinRave]

High risk loan if my experience tells me anything.

I beg to differ.  This is a very low risk loan if you don't make the loan

touché

mkay. Obviously you didn't read (or understand) the OP.

Here's the breakdown. Tell me, PLEASE TELL ME, how this is wrong:

Investment A - 150
Investment B - 127.50 (150 bought at .85)

Return on Investment - 300

Gain (total) - 22.50

Gain (per person) - 11.25 = ~1BTC


Spoiler: It's not wrong. It works, because we have two things we've never had in the history of SB. Discounted funds readily available AND sportsbooks without vig!

[Garr255]

PM sent.

[BurtW]

I guess you lost me in your OP on this statement:

So if you post 1 BTC on Team A to win and 1 BTC on Team B to lose.

Are team A and B playing each other or are these two different games?  Is this not, in fact, the same bet twice?  If Team A wins you win both bets.  If Team B wins you lose both bets.

I don't understand.

[RantinRave]

I guess you lost me in your OP on this statement:

Are team A and B playing each other or are these two different games?  Is this not, in fact, the same bet twice?  If Team A wins you win both bets.  If Team B wins you lose both bets.

I don't understand.

Lets take tonights game for example Colts at Jags. Colts are a 3.5 point favorite. So you would bet Colts on the first site and Jags on the 2nd.

I'm more than willing to discuss in extreme detail via PM (or skype, phone, in person) with somebody.

One other large question that has been asked is:

Why don't you just do this with your own 15 BTC?

Answer is that I COULD, but what you need to realize is that for every 15BTC being put down there's another ~165$ being wagered on the other site. So if you think of this in the long run we could easily be hedging at 1000 BTC per day i.e. 50BTC return.

I say it before and I'll say it again: I'm more than willing to give exact detail on how this is done. From point a to point b. Shoot I'll even give personal info if I have to, but I feel as if people are seeking information now and trying to do it on their own.

[BurtW]

So if you post 1 BTC on Team A to win and 1 BTC on Team B to lose.

Lets take tonights game for example Colts at Jags. Colts are a 3.5 point favorite. So you would bet Colts on the first site and Jags on the 2nd.

OK so you need to fix your OP.  It should read:

So if you post 1 BTC on Team A to win and 1 BTC on Team B to lose win.

So you are just betting both sides of the bet.  Assuming there are no costs associated with placing the bets your expected value is exacly 1.0.  In other words, you have eliminated the possibility of losing, but at the same time you have eliminated the possibility of winning anything also.  You bet, one bet wins, you get back exactly what you bet.  Might as well have not wasted you time betting right?

So this brings us to:

The ROI all depends upon the discounted money that is purchased.

So you are claiming that you have somehow figured out a way to use this discounted money to your advantage.

Let's look at you example now:

Here's the breakdown. Tell me, PLEASE TELL ME, how this is wrong:

Investment A - 150
Investment B - 127.50 (150 bought at .85)

Return on Investment - 300

Gain (total) - 22.50

Gain (per person) - 11.25 = ~1BTC

Not quite, there are two possible outcomes for the bet

Total amount bet = 150 + 127.50 = 277.50

"Investment" A wins, total profit = 300 - 277.50 = 22.50 (yahoo!)

"Investment" B wins, total profit = 300 - 277.50 = 22.50, right?

But wait a minute!  The $300 is now sitting at a site where you have to take a discount to get your money out (the premise of this system) so you don't really win the full 300.  In fact once you claim the winnings on that site you only get 0.85 of 300 or $255, so the real take home from this second case is:

"Investment" B wins, total profit = 300*0.85 - 277.50 = 255 - 277.50 = -22.5, you lose 22.5 in this case!

So in the long run you will win 22.5 half the time and lose 22.5 the other half of the time giving us the expected value of 1.0 for betting both sides - the expected result.

BUT WAIT YOU SAY!  I can just keep going until A wins, right?

No, after B wins you have $300 on site B but this money is already discounted money so if you bet with it in the next round there is no mathematical advantage.

In the long run the expected value of this system is 1.0, assuming no transaction costs.

[RantinRave]

BurtW -

Thank you for looking at this and understanding what I'm doing. Lets make a couple points before I start:

• Yes, I AM getting discounted money on the one site. The reason is because it takes these online casinos so long to cash out money (like 1 month+). So if somebody wants it right away. They will send the money to me and I'll send them bank xfer, GDMP, or whatever they want.
• There's really not any HUGE value in me doing this at this low of a level, but I'm really just doing it for fun. Obviously I've spent more time in this thread than anything looking for a 15BTC loan that I ever though I would have spent. lol. Though there is serious money to be made if I can get a big investor.
• Your outcomes aren't totally accurate. I see where you are going with it, but let me take a shot at explaining why it's wrong ...

Scenario 1

"Investment" A wins, total profit = 300 - 277.50 = 22.50 (yahoo!)

w00t w00t. I'm a hero and everybody loves me.

Scenario 2

"Investment" B wins, total profit = 300 - 277.50 = 22.50, right?

But wait a minute!  The $300 is now sitting at a site where you have to take a discount to get your money out (the premise of this system) so you don't really win the full 300.  In fact once you claim the winnings on that site you only get 0.85 of 300 or $255, so the real take home from this second case is:

Ok. So lets get this straight. Assuming this was a "one time wager". We'll say I'm betting 300 on each side. And the "wrong side" wins. So now I have ~ 572.72$ (since a wager only pays out 1.9091), but we SHOULD have 600, right? Well, there's two situations here:

1. I can get the money for for as low as 70% of the cost. And resell it for up to 85-90% of the value.
2. There's sites where if you lose you get 15% of the refund on your money.

Technically, yes, I'll be "sitting" on this money waiting for a trade, but you'll still get your BTC back right away. Pretty much I have 15 BTC (soon to be 20ish) in my account right now worst case scenario I just send it back.

No, after B wins you have $300 on site B but this money is already discounted money so if you bet with it in the next round there is no mathematical advantage.

In the long run the expected value of this system is 1.0, assuming no transaction costs.

There is a mathematical advantage. Our only limitations are how much action the btc sports book is getting.

[BurtW]

Yes, I AM getting discounted money on the one site. The reason is because it takes these online casinos so long to cash out money (like 1 month+). So if somebody wants it right away. They will send the money to me and I'll send them bank xfer, GDMP, or whatever they want.

If this is true then you can make a boatload of money directly from this situation without all that pointless mucking about placing bets, etc.  This I understand:

"Guy in a hurry" wants his money now.  He sells you $300 on the site for only $255 cash in hand today.
You transfer $255 to his bank account or whatever.
He transfers the $300 to you on the site.
You start the month+ process of getting the money off the site.
One month later you have your $300, making 15% in one month.
Rinse, repeat as often as you want/need to.
You can run one transfer per day for 30 days to fill the pipeline then the system supports itself.
This would be a cash cow.

So unless I am missing something this is the most direct way to make money off this system.

Where is the catch? 

In other words, why is this not already being done by a lot of people, creating competition and driving the discount toward zero?

[RantinRave]

You can run one transfer per day for 30 days to fill the pipeline then the system supports itself.
This would be a cash cow.

So unless I am missing something this is the most direct way to make money off this system.

Where is the catch? 

In other words, why is this not already being done by a lot of people, creating competition and driving the discount toward zero?

I "catch" (can we call it a niche?) is:
1. First off only a small percentage of people out there have even heard of bitcoins and of those only a few bet on sports
2. It's a whole different scene on people that sell this money. So you would have to know how to find it and have enough rep to buy it.
3. It might not last for long. Like as poker / sportsbetting is becoming more and more us-friendly. Many people many be able to do quick cashouts.

I'm sure there's more, but this is what I can think of off the top of my head.

I'm going to PM you.

[Vod]

While I move it can you go ahead and do yourself a favour ... go find a girl and get laid. FFS.

Done.  But you didn't move the thread like you claimed.

I call OP a scammer.

[RantinRave]

Done.  But you didn't move the thread like you claimed.

Vids. or it didn't happen.

Ok, for now I'm going to lock this thread up. Seems like there's 2 types of people:

1. Ones who are interested, but still are a little wary
2. People who think it's an all out risk of losing their bitcoins

Fact is that I've been trying this out off and on for the past couple weeks at a low level, but to make anything worth it I'm going to need a backer that has 1000 BTC. I'll obviously get there myself if this 'hustle' keeps up, but for now I only have a few to my name.

Best case scenario is I come back here and brag in about a year and write a PDF and make some $$$. Worst case scenario is I never make any bitcoins ..

Lockin' it up!