[Loan] Seeking 15 BTC with 96% change of ~5% ROI in less than 24 hours

[Projects]

High risk loan if my experience tells me anything.

I beg to differ.  This is a very low risk loan if you don't make the loan

touché

[RantinRave]

Question:  you are asking for 15 BTC, or about 15 x 11 = $165 (at the moment) to invest in an "almost sure thing".

So, why don't you borrow $165 on a low interest rate credit card or from a friend or family member, run your system and make the money yourself!

If it works as well as you say then you will be wealthy in no time at all and be able to buy all the BTC you want.

I COULD do that. And pretty much what I'm going to start doing as of next week since I'm getting so much flack from this thread. I originally opened this because I wanted to go partners with somebody and gain some rep in thread. Silly me I guess.

Will I get wealthy? probably not, but I do think it'll be a good source of extra $. But like you say, if it works .. screw it. At least I'm making money. Assuming a standard wager is around 10BTC and probably three wagers are made per day. It's probably makes sense that I can get around 1BTC per day.

[RantinRave]

High risk loan if my experience tells me anything.

I beg to differ.  This is a very low risk loan if you don't make the loan

touché

mkay. Obviously you didn't read (or understand) the OP.

Here's the breakdown. Tell me, PLEASE TELL ME, how this is wrong:

Investment A - 150
Investment B - 127.50 (150 bought at .85)

Return on Investment - 300

Gain (total) - 22.50

Gain (per person) - 11.25 = ~1BTC


Spoiler: It's not wrong. It works, because we have two things we've never had in the history of SB. Discounted funds readily available AND sportsbooks without vig!

[Garr255]

PM sent.

[BurtW]

I guess you lost me in your OP on this statement:

So if you post 1 BTC on Team A to win and 1 BTC on Team B to lose.

Are team A and B playing each other or are these two different games?  Is this not, in fact, the same bet twice?  If Team A wins you win both bets.  If Team B wins you lose both bets.

I don't understand.

[RantinRave]

I guess you lost me in your OP on this statement:

Are team A and B playing each other or are these two different games?  Is this not, in fact, the same bet twice?  If Team A wins you win both bets.  If Team B wins you lose both bets.

I don't understand.

Lets take tonights game for example Colts at Jags. Colts are a 3.5 point favorite. So you would bet Colts on the first site and Jags on the 2nd.

I'm more than willing to discuss in extreme detail via PM (or skype, phone, in person) with somebody.

One other large question that has been asked is:

Why don't you just do this with your own 15 BTC?

Answer is that I COULD, but what you need to realize is that for every 15BTC being put down there's another ~165$ being wagered on the other site. So if you think of this in the long run we could easily be hedging at 1000 BTC per day i.e. 50BTC return.

I say it before and I'll say it again: I'm more than willing to give exact detail on how this is done. From point a to point b. Shoot I'll even give personal info if I have to, but I feel as if people are seeking information now and trying to do it on their own.

[BurtW]

So if you post 1 BTC on Team A to win and 1 BTC on Team B to lose.

Lets take tonights game for example Colts at Jags. Colts are a 3.5 point favorite. So you would bet Colts on the first site and Jags on the 2nd.

OK so you need to fix your OP.  It should read:

So if you post 1 BTC on Team A to win and 1 BTC on Team B to lose win.

So you are just betting both sides of the bet.  Assuming there are no costs associated with placing the bets your expected value is exacly 1.0.  In other words, you have eliminated the possibility of losing, but at the same time you have eliminated the possibility of winning anything also.  You bet, one bet wins, you get back exactly what you bet.  Might as well have not wasted you time betting right?

So this brings us to:

The ROI all depends upon the discounted money that is purchased.

So you are claiming that you have somehow figured out a way to use this discounted money to your advantage.

Let's look at you example now:

Here's the breakdown. Tell me, PLEASE TELL ME, how this is wrong:

Investment A - 150
Investment B - 127.50 (150 bought at .85)

Return on Investment - 300

Gain (total) - 22.50

Gain (per person) - 11.25 = ~1BTC

Not quite, there are two possible outcomes for the bet

Total amount bet = 150 + 127.50 = 277.50

"Investment" A wins, total profit = 300 - 277.50 = 22.50 (yahoo!)

"Investment" B wins, total profit = 300 - 277.50 = 22.50, right?

But wait a minute!  The $300 is now sitting at a site where you have to take a discount to get your money out (the premise of this system) so you don't really win the full 300.  In fact once you claim the winnings on that site you only get 0.85 of 300 or $255, so the real take home from this second case is:

"Investment" B wins, total profit = 300*0.85 - 277.50 = 255 - 277.50 = -22.5, you lose 22.5 in this case!

So in the long run you will win 22.5 half the time and lose 22.5 the other half of the time giving us the expected value of 1.0 for betting both sides - the expected result.

BUT WAIT YOU SAY!  I can just keep going until A wins, right?

No, after B wins you have $300 on site B but this money is already discounted money so if you bet with it in the next round there is no mathematical advantage.

In the long run the expected value of this system is 1.0, assuming no transaction costs.

[RantinRave]

BurtW -

Thank you for looking at this and understanding what I'm doing. Lets make a couple points before I start:

• Yes, I AM getting discounted money on the one site. The reason is because it takes these online casinos so long to cash out money (like 1 month+). So if somebody wants it right away. They will send the money to me and I'll send them bank xfer, GDMP, or whatever they want.
• There's really not any HUGE value in me doing this at this low of a level, but I'm really just doing it for fun. Obviously I've spent more time in this thread than anything looking for a 15BTC loan that I ever though I would have spent. lol. Though there is serious money to be made if I can get a big investor.
• Your outcomes aren't totally accurate. I see where you are going with it, but let me take a shot at explaining why it's wrong ...

Scenario 1

"Investment" A wins, total profit = 300 - 277.50 = 22.50 (yahoo!)

w00t w00t. I'm a hero and everybody loves me.

Scenario 2

"Investment" B wins, total profit = 300 - 277.50 = 22.50, right?

But wait a minute!  The $300 is now sitting at a site where you have to take a discount to get your money out (the premise of this system) so you don't really win the full 300.  In fact once you claim the winnings on that site you only get 0.85 of 300 or $255, so the real take home from this second case is:

Ok. So lets get this straight. Assuming this was a "one time wager". We'll say I'm betting 300 on each side. And the "wrong side" wins. So now I have ~ 572.72$ (since a wager only pays out 1.9091), but we SHOULD have 600, right? Well, there's two situations here:

1. I can get the money for for as low as 70% of the cost. And resell it for up to 85-90% of the value.
2. There's sites where if you lose you get 15% of the refund on your money.

Technically, yes, I'll be "sitting" on this money waiting for a trade, but you'll still get your BTC back right away. Pretty much I have 15 BTC (soon to be 20ish) in my account right now worst case scenario I just send it back.

No, after B wins you have $300 on site B but this money is already discounted money so if you bet with it in the next round there is no mathematical advantage.

In the long run the expected value of this system is 1.0, assuming no transaction costs.

There is a mathematical advantage. Our only limitations are how much action the btc sports book is getting.

[BurtW]

Yes, I AM getting discounted money on the one site. The reason is because it takes these online casinos so long to cash out money (like 1 month+). So if somebody wants it right away. They will send the money to me and I'll send them bank xfer, GDMP, or whatever they want.

If this is true then you can make a boatload of money directly from this situation without all that pointless mucking about placing bets, etc.  This I understand:

"Guy in a hurry" wants his money now.  He sells you $300 on the site for only $255 cash in hand today.
You transfer $255 to his bank account or whatever.
He transfers the $300 to you on the site.
You start the month+ process of getting the money off the site.
One month later you have your $300, making 15% in one month.
Rinse, repeat as often as you want/need to.
You can run one transfer per day for 30 days to fill the pipeline then the system supports itself.
This would be a cash cow.

So unless I am missing something this is the most direct way to make money off this system.

Where is the catch? 

In other words, why is this not already being done by a lot of people, creating competition and driving the discount toward zero?

[RantinRave]

You can run one transfer per day for 30 days to fill the pipeline then the system supports itself.
This would be a cash cow.

So unless I am missing something this is the most direct way to make money off this system.

Where is the catch? 

In other words, why is this not already being done by a lot of people, creating competition and driving the discount toward zero?

I "catch" (can we call it a niche?) is:
1. First off only a small percentage of people out there have even heard of bitcoins and of those only a few bet on sports
2. It's a whole different scene on people that sell this money. So you would have to know how to find it and have enough rep to buy it.
3. It might not last for long. Like as poker / sportsbetting is becoming more and more us-friendly. Many people many be able to do quick cashouts.

I'm sure there's more, but this is what I can think of off the top of my head.

I'm going to PM you.

[Vod]

While I move it can you go ahead and do yourself a favour ... go find a girl and get laid. FFS.

Done.  But you didn't move the thread like you claimed.

I call OP a scammer.

[RantinRave]

Done.  But you didn't move the thread like you claimed.

Vids. or it didn't happen.

Ok, for now I'm going to lock this thread up. Seems like there's 2 types of people:

1. Ones who are interested, but still are a little wary
2. People who think it's an all out risk of losing their bitcoins

Fact is that I've been trying this out off and on for the past couple weeks at a low level, but to make anything worth it I'm going to need a backer that has 1000 BTC. I'll obviously get there myself if this 'hustle' keeps up, but for now I only have a few to my name.

Best case scenario is I come back here and brag in about a year and write a PDF and make some $$$. Worst case scenario is I never make any bitcoins ..

Lockin' it up!