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Author Topic: Possible top, but breakthrough very possible as well.  (Read 1343 times)
somac.
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October 30, 2015, 11:47:05 AM
 #1

Possible top reached at resistance line of ascending channel. if anyone was going to sell, now would offer the best risk to reward ratio. Sellers should definitely have stops in place though, because, if this thing does actually breakthrough I reckon it could hit 400-450 before a pullback. Personally I'm hoping for a breakthrough, and there is no way I will be selling my coins no matter what. see pic below:


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October 30, 2015, 11:47:55 AM
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So it could dump or rise a lot? Excellent TA. Keep it up.
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October 30, 2015, 11:54:39 AM
 #3

What I am just hoping at this timw is for the price not to suddenly drop dramtically after the sudden price increase that we are encountering at this moment. I've been holding my coins for this and so let's just hope for the best.

 
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October 30, 2015, 11:56:27 AM
 #4

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So it could dump or rise a lot? Excellent TA. Keep it up.

You can't predict where the price will go. you can only pick levels where there may be a change in direction. This means that, at this point, now is not the time to buy, but it is a good time to sell. If it keeps going up though the sell should be exited and then a buy position taken.

With TA, you're not looking for prediction of where the price will go, but rather at points which make sense to buy or sell (risk to reward ratio). if it goes in the right direction great, possibly even add to the trade. But if it goes against you switch sides.
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October 30, 2015, 12:03:26 PM
 #5

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What I am just hoping at this timw is for the price not to suddenly drop dramtically after the sudden price increase that we are encountering at this moment. I've been holding my coins for this and so let's just hope for the best.

I was luckily enough to experience the last bubble, and from about $300 I kept thinking this thing is overbought it's going to drop soon. But damn, Bitcoin is an amazing thing and certainly has the ability to keep on running. This is why I won't short it. If I want to trade I'll stick to FOREX far less risky - on the short side that is.
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October 30, 2015, 12:04:20 PM
Last edit: October 30, 2015, 12:32:27 PM by r0ach
 #6

People who seek short term gratification are idiots and only lose money.  I've only gained and never lost a dime in crypto because I set reasonable goals and use long time spans.  My low ball, bearish goal for the halving in 8 months before this bubble started was 400-450.  Now that's looking like too low of an estimate and something like 500-600+ will probably happen.  If China really is creating a new bubble, combined with the effects of the halving at same time, it could spike way higher.

There was a LOT of money on the sidelines waiting for the bottom to join back in for momentum trading.  With all those people across the globe, plus china, plus the halving, and the avalanche of media attention that will happen from the price increase like last time, it might get really crazy soon.

You don't even need to believe in or understand the fundamentals.  All you really need to know is, both In-Q-Tel and Larry Summers are trying to front run Bitcoin.  How often do you get the chance to front run the World Bank and CIA?  Even the big fish like the Winklevoss are supposedly cost averaged around $100 a coin.  People like Tim Draper, far higher.  You're not making whales rich by buying Bitcoin these guys aren't cost averaged that cheap in the first place.  They have to pump the market a lot more just to be able to utilize any of their funds or have any type of possible exit, so that's exactly what's going to happen.

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October 30, 2015, 12:08:22 PM
 #7

On a very small scale a nice H&S on Bitstamp and Bitfinex (but not on the Chinese exchanges).
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October 30, 2015, 12:15:39 PM
 #8

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People who seek short term gratification are idiots and only lose money.

This is absolutely the case with bitcoin. Bitcoin is damn tiny, it's like a flea on a elephant's (Total FOREX market) ass. Trading bitcoin is like trading a penny stock, may not move much for months but when it does massive moves are possible and people can get wiped out real easy. Bitcoin is an investment similar in a way to investing in Microsoft or Apple in 1979, do you believe in bitcoin's future of the world will work or not. If so buy for the long-term, if not just stay the fuck out and take you money and your time elsewhere.
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October 30, 2015, 12:56:48 PM
 #9

I'm no TA specialist and honestly I can barely read graphs. But from over a year of my stay here playing with bitcoins and the markets, I can fairly say that I have gained a lot of knowledge and experience by just reading what others have done or analyzed. I bought coins at $200 and sub-$200 as well, and by now I have over 50% profits. I'm thinking of taking it now, but seeing that there is still a large interest for this price, I don't think that it is great to sell now. But that is just my view on the matter. :v

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October 30, 2015, 01:07:49 PM
 #10

On a very small scale a nice H&S on Bitstamp and Bitfinex (but not on the Chinese exchanges).

Thank you man you made me study!
This is so interesting.
I'll share this link and, guys, look at the charts! So interesting
http://www.trading-naked.com/HeadandShoulders.htm

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somac.
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October 31, 2015, 12:55:36 AM
 #11

Small H&S (on 15min timescale) turned into a symmetrical triangle and that triangle has now been broken to the upside. Just need to penetrate the resistance line of the ascending channel now. If it does, I might purchase a bit more, will wait for a significant break though.

Only problem is that on the daily the price is going exponential, never a good sign, unless it turns into another large bubble and you GTFO at the right time.
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October 31, 2015, 12:56:57 AM
 #12

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People who seek short term gratification are idiots and only lose money.

This is absolutely the case with bitcoin. Bitcoin is damn tiny, it's like a flea on a elephant's (Total FOREX market) ass. Trading bitcoin is like trading a penny stock, may not move much for months but when it does massive moves are possible and people can get wiped out real easy. Bitcoin is an investment similar in a way to investing in Microsoft or Apple in 1979, do you believe in bitcoin's future of the world will work or not. If so buy for the long-term, if not just stay the fuck out and take you money and your time elsewhere.
That's how any sane investor should be treating Bitcoin. A long term asset with huge amounts of potential of growth overtime. It is still very fun to try to guess current ceilings and so on. Something about speculation is addictive.
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October 31, 2015, 01:08:06 AM
 #13

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That's how any sane investor should be treating Bitcoin. A long term asset with huge amounts of potential of growth overtime. It is still very fun to try to guess current ceilings and so on. Something about speculation is addictive.

Yeah I don't think this is the best market to trade, it's too hard to minimize your risk properly. FOREX offers a far better trading experience and offers plenty of leverage and enough volatility to trade, plus the liquidity is a shitload better.
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October 31, 2015, 01:21:09 AM
 #14

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That's how any sane investor should be treating Bitcoin. A long term asset with huge amounts of potential of growth overtime. It is still very fun to try to guess current ceilings and so on. Something about speculation is addictive.

Yeah I don't think this is the best market to trade, it's too hard to minimize your risk properly. FOREX offers a far better trading experience and offers plenty of leverage and enough volatility to trade, plus the liquidity is a shitload better.

I think you may mean something else with "volatility". As far as I know Bitcoin is volatile as hell. I think the biggest problem is the fact the marketcap is so small that any amount of panic buying, specially whales panic buying, can drive the price to 1.2K+.

Since im here for a 10+ year stance, I just sit back and enjoy the show while trying to keep stress as low as possible. If im feeling risky, I may play around with some alt that I like and that's about it.
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October 31, 2015, 01:26:56 AM
 #15

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I think you may mean something else with "volatility". As far as I know Bitcoin is volatile as hell.

That's the problem, there is too much of it, get on the wrong side and you're in trouble. It just makes it too hard to establish proper risk/money management, plus lack of liquidity if your using big money is an issue too.

Basically the level of volatility means your stops have to be too wide.
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October 31, 2015, 02:16:45 AM
 #16

Looks to be that way but the market seems to be rather undecided on the direction right now. People are still waiting for firm signals. But as always when it comes to bitcoin it's very difficult to predict what will be the next move. Once it broke through the resistance level, I think it will rise very fast before we can see some pullback. Brace yourselves guys.

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October 31, 2015, 12:32:09 PM
 #17

I'm no TA specialist and honestly I can barely read graphs. But from over a year of my stay here playing with bitcoins and the markets, I can fairly say that I have gained a lot of knowledge and experience by just reading what others have done or analyzed. I bought coins at $200 and sub-$200 as well, and by now I have over 50% profits. I'm thinking of taking it now, but seeing that there is still a large interest for this price, I don't think that it is great to sell now. But that is just my view on the matter. :v

Would you advise people to buy now?

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October 31, 2015, 12:40:03 PM
 #18

On a very small scale a nice H&S on Bitstamp and Bitfinex (but not on the Chinese exchanges).

Thank you man you made me study!
This is so interesting.
I'll share this link and, guys, look at the charts! So interesting
http://www.trading-naked.com/HeadandShoulders.htm

Thanks for sharing this man. Very informative and somewhat describes bitcoin's current position in the charts.Seeing the pattern made me think that it could prettt much happen in the current scenario. I've learned something new about reading charts. Smiley

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October 31, 2015, 03:02:30 PM
 #19

so we are going to touch everytime a new little ath, the first one was 280, then 312, now we have 330

i wonder what kinda of strategy manipulators are doing, anyway for long term holder this isn't  a problem
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October 31, 2015, 10:45:31 PM
 #20

So it didn't manage to break that resistance unfortunately. If I was a seller at the resistance point (which I said previously was the spot to go short/sell) I would now move my SL to break even. If it keeps moving south I would be moving my stop to a level just above each lower high  once they have been made.



It's possible that this thing goes all the way to support which will probably be around 220 by the time (if) the price gets there. I am of course hoping it is just haveing a breather then will shoot up again after a short period of consolidation. Remember though, hope is not a strategy so don't trade by it.

Being that I'm a long term investor here I don't care what really happens in the short term. Bitcoin's possibility's are endless and it is still up about a billion percent since creation, and that's one hell of an uptrend. 
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