How long before the price tanks sharply because Silk Road is down?

[thebaron]

If it continues to be down, this weekend? Next week?

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[adamstgBit]

if Silk Road is down for ever

i'd buy up ALL the bitcoins, because you just watch as 5 new SilkRoad wannabees all pop up

[AndrewBUD]

I doubt it will.. It always goes down... seems like a regular thing lately..

[adamstgBit]

I doubt it will.. It always goes down... seems like a regular thing lately..

well hopefully they will do some upgrade soon, if not i hope someone can make a better tor site that can handle the traffic 

[AndrewBUD]

They did just do an upgrade.... It seemed quicker for a little while....




Try that reloaded site... it's similar...  a handful of vendors from sr are there.

[ElectricMucus]

if Silk Road is down for ever

i'd buy up ALL the bitcoins, because you just watch as 5 new SilkRoad wannabees all pop up

Why didn't they already? Independently of SR being up or down.
My guess it doing that takes a while and you'd have to find the guts and environment to do it.

[FreeMoney]

if Silk Road is down for ever

i'd buy up ALL the bitcoins, because you just watch as 5 new SilkRoad wannabees all pop up

Why didn't they already? Independently of SR being up or down.
My guess it doing that takes a while and you'd have to find the guts and environment to do it.

Because the risk/cost is X and while SR is open the reward is X/5 and when SR is down the reward is 5X.

[ElectricMucus]

if Silk Road is down for ever

i'd buy up ALL the bitcoins, because you just watch as 5 new SilkRoad wannabees all pop up

Why didn't they already? Independently of SR being up or down.
My guess it doing that takes a while and you'd have to find the guts and environment to do it.

Because the risk/cost is X and while SR is open the reward is X/5 and when SR is down the reward is 5X.

More like a factor of two for the first one.
  And it depends, if silkroad is beyond their load capacity already it might not even cut into their profit at all just provide a service where silkroad cannot handle it any more.

[niko]

SR volume is a tiny fraction of Bitcoin economy. There are convincing estimates based on the academic study of SR published about four months ago.

[Technomage]

Silk Road being down is more bullish than anything. The reason it's having trouble is the sheer amount of new users. It's growing too fast.

That is a so called positive problem.

If it's down indefinitely, then the price will tank (for some time) but that is unlikely to be the case.

[evoorhees]

SR is offline apparently because of huge traffic levels. Anyone who would sell btc on this news is pretty silly

[jwzguy]

SR is offline apparently because of huge traffic levels. Anyone who would sell btc on this news is pretty silly

That would indeed be silly. Actually selling BTC based on the belief that Silk Road will make or break it is pretty silly regardless.

But out of curiosity, who made this apparent?

[ElectricMucus]

SR volume is a tiny fraction of Bitcoin economy. There are convincing estimates based on the academic study of SR published about four months ago.

I call bullshit on that. If you were writing the truth you'd cite that study in detail. But you didn't.

SR is offline apparently because of huge traffic levels. Anyone who would sell btc on this news is pretty silly

That would indeed be silly. Actually selling BTC based on the belief that Silk Road will make or break it is pretty silly regardless.

It did make it so it can break it. But not necessarily so, it just might.
This is speculation remember? We deal with possibilities...

[FreeMoney]

if Silk Road is down for ever

i'd buy up ALL the bitcoins, because you just watch as 5 new SilkRoad wannabees all pop up

Why didn't they already? Independently of SR being up or down.
My guess it doing that takes a while and you'd have to find the guts and environment to do it.

Because the risk/cost is X and while SR is open the reward is X/5 and when SR is down the reward is 5X.

More like a factor of two for the first one.
  And it depends, if silkroad is beyond their load capacity already it might not even cut into their profit at all just provide a service where silkroad cannot handle it any more.

obv I have no idea of the numbers, but it's the answer to your question of why not yet.

[BC12345]

SR volume is a tiny fraction of Bitcoin economy. There are convincing estimates based on the academic study of SR published about four months ago.

I call bullshit on that. If you were writing the truth you'd cite that study in detail. But you didn't.

I am not saying that the first statement is correct but I think maybe he was referring to this

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1207.7139v1   (chapter 5.2 "Transaction volumes")

paper.

[theymos]

DoS attacks are really easy against Tor hidden services. The service can't block the attacker because all clients are anonymous. Tor hidden service introduction points can sometimes also be DoS-attacked. I wouldn't use Tor to run a site like this.

[ElectricMucus]

SR volume is a tiny fraction of Bitcoin economy. There are convincing estimates based on the academic study of SR published about four months ago.

I call bullshit on that. If you were writing the truth you'd cite that study in detail. But you didn't.

I am not saying that the first statement is correct but I think maybe he was referring to this

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1207.7139v1   (chapter 5.2 "Transaction volumes")

paper.

Thanks.  
I can also see why it wasn't cited, nobody with a straight mind would seriously consider the total transaction value of the Blockchain to be trade economic activity. And according to that paper SR even has 5-7% of that.
You can easily double that if you consider that people have to buy the bitcoins somewhere, triple it if you consider that the wares are usually bought for fiat the first time and then double to triple  that figure again to account for mixing.

It's obvious that SR accounts for the majority of real economic activity even by that paper as it is obvious any bitcointalk member sharing the "bitcoinsm" philosophy will deny it whenever possible. Even to the point of purposefully misinterpreting the facts.

[malevolent]

DoS attacks are really easy against Tor hidden services. The service can't block the attacker because all clients are anonymous. Tor hidden service introduction points can sometimes also be DoS-attacked. I wouldn't use Tor to run a site like this.

What would you suggest? I2P, Freenet?

[imanikin]

...
It's obvious that SR accounts for the majority of real economic activity even by that paper as it is obvious any bitcointalk member sharing the "bitcoinsm" philosophy will deny it whenever possible. Even to the point of purposefully misinterpreting the facts.

I hope you are right then, and SR has been captured by the evil-doers, so that the exchange rate crashes, and people can buy cheaper Bitcoin again, before the drug kids come back online with their usual demand + the backlog... 

[thebaron]

Anyone who would sell btc on this news is pretty silly

I'm not talking about panic selling, I'm talking about a price drop because they're aren't enough buyers to sustain the current bid/ask wall.