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Author Topic: The truth about the current bubble  (Read 4422 times)
Amph
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November 04, 2015, 07:23:58 PM
 #41

No doubt in my mind that this is a bubble. Unfortunately, there is no way to know how high it will go before it pops. My strategy is to hedge by selling small amounts on the way up and the buy it all back after the bubble pops.
isn't better to buy all the way up and if it pop you start selling? in this way if it not pops you have a good stash of coins, and if it pops you have also your profit
with your strategy if it will not pops or it will half pops(price correction at 600+ after a dump from 900-1200 for example) you will lose more
i can be sure that we won't see again 1200-230....never seen a strong bubble repeating itself in exact same way

Your strategy of buying on the way up and selling just before the bubble bursts won't work because you don't know when the bubble will burst, so you will be buying at the top and selling at the bottom.

My strategy is a hedging strategy. If there is no bubble, then the value of my bitcoins will be higher, but lower than it could have been. On the other hand, if there is a bubble, then the value of my bitcoins will be higher than if I did nothing. Either way I'm ahead.

"i can be sure that we won't see again 1200-230 ..." <--- Pure speculation.



you don't need to know the exact top you only need a signal in terms of %, this signal can e a dump of 10%-25% or 33%, i would not go higher

"i can be sure that we won't see again 1200-230 ..." <--- Pure speculation.

never seen a bubble repeating itself in the exact same way, so no, it's not really speculation, is more speculative to say the opposite...
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November 04, 2015, 08:51:40 PM
 #42

The recent rise is mainly caused by the media exposure of the block chain technology. Bitcoin is closely related to block chain technology. So bitcoin is bought.

The volume is big, which indicates the involvement of large institutions.
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November 05, 2015, 03:48:21 PM
 #43

If this turns out to be a bubble, I really hope it will last for a long time. Currently +$400 is more than a decent price after being stuck at $240 for such a long time.

Yeah exactly we want this bubble to continue for a longer time, It was really exciting to see the value of bitcoins going high in last couple of weeks and I believe that the value will go much higher in coming months so at this stage I have sold a part of my bitcoins and made profit out of it and have kept rest for the future if the value reaches to the moon would surely sell some of it.
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November 05, 2015, 04:25:04 PM
 #44

Why talk about a bubble at all? We should rather call it a price spike... because that is what it's doing... It goes up a bit (spike} and then flatten a bit after all the hype has died

down, but it trades above the level, where the previous spike were. If you look at the long term, it still goes upwards. A bubble grows bigger and then it pop and nothing is left.

The people who buy, when it goes down to the normal levels, are the people who are making the profits in the long term..  Wink Take calculated risks, based on historical trends.

The day traders and speculators lose the most. Buy and hoard... long term hoarding is the key.  Grin



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November 05, 2015, 08:15:57 PM
 #45

Why talk about a bubble at all? We should rather call it a price spike... because that is what it's doing... It goes up a bit (spike} and then flatten a bit after all the hype has died

...

Remaining above $300 is a nice improvement and I'd call it a spike too. Going down to levels were at at just prior I'd call it a bubble.

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November 06, 2015, 05:13:55 AM
 #46

well, i like the current price development. i think soon it will be possible to buy back. during the weekend there will be less trading and the price will go down to 300 $ again.  Cool

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November 06, 2015, 06:13:51 AM
 #47

well, i like the current price development. i think soon it will be possible to buy back. during the weekend there will be less trading and the price will go down to 300 $ again.  Cool

I don't expect prices will go down under $300 levels again. Because there are many reasons the new investments have been brought into bitcoin ecosystem that would maintain bitcoin prices above $300 levels at least for sometimes.

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November 09, 2015, 07:27:58 AM
 #48

well, i like the current price development. i think soon it will be possible to buy back. during the weekend there will be less trading and the price will go down to 300 $ again.  Cool

I don't expect prices will go down under $300 levels again. Because there are many reasons the new investments have been brought into bitcoin ecosystem that would maintain bitcoin prices above $300 levels at least for sometimes.

sure price will stabilize around 350$
and dont thing that it will go below 350 think that this is bottom price for now



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November 09, 2015, 07:51:09 AM
 #49

well, i like the current price development. i think soon it will be possible to buy back. during the weekend there will be less trading and the price will go down to 300 $ again.  Cool

I don't expect prices will go down under $300 levels again. Because there are many reasons the new investments have been brought into bitcoin ecosystem that would maintain bitcoin prices above $300 levels at least for sometimes.

sure price will stabilize around 350$
and dont thing that it will go below 350 think that this is bottom price for now

I also don't think $300 will be breached -- could have spikes below $350 down to $320 though in my opinion.

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November 10, 2015, 10:21:41 AM
 #50

to bubble or not to bubble - this still is the question.

compare these two charts.

It is one of the most widely cited charts about market bubbles in the world. It focuses on investor psychology and the mindsets that prevail.




the other one is a print screen from bitstamp




i think it was not a bubble. although the moves are correct. The magnitude is not strong enough.


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November 10, 2015, 11:32:27 AM
 #51

if you look close, the green chart resemble the first stretch of the well know bubble chart, until the bear trap phase
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November 10, 2015, 04:25:09 PM
 #52

to bubble or not to bubble - this still is the question.

compare these two charts.

It is one of the most widely cited charts about market bubbles in the world. It focuses on investor psychology and the mindsets that prevail.




the other one is a print screen from bitstamp




i think it was not a bubble. although the moves are correct. The magnitude is not strong enough.



The first chart is about sentiment and trends, and the price moves are exaggerated for illustrative purposes. Just because the price graph you posted doesn't look exactly like it is not proof it's not a bubble.


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November 10, 2015, 05:18:13 PM
 #53

have a look at the charts in this article.

here it looks like a bubble.

http://ibankbitcoins.com/btc/11-5-2015-bitcoin-market-update-market-pullback-after-fomo-parabolic



i could not find a chart from the 1000$ bubble.

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November 10, 2015, 07:27:44 PM
 #54

well, i like the current price development. i think soon it will be possible to buy back. during the weekend there will be less trading and the price will go down to 300 $ again.  Cool

I don't expect prices will go down under $300 levels again. Because there are many reasons the new investments have been brought into bitcoin ecosystem that would maintain bitcoin prices above $300 levels at least for sometimes.

sure price will stabilize around 350$
and dont thing that it will go below 350 think that this is bottom price for now

I also don't think $300 will be breached -- could have spikes below $350 down to $320 though in my opinion.

Well crap guys, I hope you are all right. We have just touched $350 today on Bitfinex. It would be really a waste of the run if we are to dip under $350. I don't know why, but I still feel bullish. That's why it's so weird to see this price drop today and a dump.
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November 10, 2015, 07:42:13 PM
 #55

well, i like the current price development. i think soon it will be possible to buy back. during the weekend there will be less trading and the price will go down to 300 $ again.  Cool

I don't expect prices will go down under $300 levels again. Because there are many reasons the new investments have been brought into bitcoin ecosystem that would maintain bitcoin prices above $300 levels at least for sometimes.

sure price will stabilize around 350$
and dont thing that it will go below 350 think that this is bottom price for now

I also don't think $300 will be breached -- could have spikes below $350 down to $320 though in my opinion.

Well crap guys, I hope you are all right. We have just touched $350 today on Bitfinex. It would be really a waste of the run if we are to dip under $350. I don't know why, but I still feel bullish. That's why it's so weird to see this price drop today and a dump.

IMO the price of Bitcoin will not drop lower than $350 and from there it will start rising again because the drop to $350 was in a way conditioned by the sale of 44,000 BTC by US Marshals Service.

http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-auction-winner-announcement-delay/

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November 10, 2015, 07:47:10 PM
 #56

when is started this topic i really hoped, that it is just ab bubble. i was so glad that after i sold @334$ (i bought @200$) the price went down.
but then it rose and rose and rose and...
and i hoped that i was not the only one that acted like this.

to sum up: it was not a bubble like in the graph i posted. but the price will go down 20$ to 25$ each day until it stops at 300$/btc.

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November 10, 2015, 09:23:48 PM
 #57

It is possible for the price to go below $300 briefly, but it will not stay there for too long. The bitcoin is in bull market. It will rise steadily until next halving. Then further adoption of the coin will push the price even higher. In that process, there will be some corrections. That is a normal behaviour.
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November 10, 2015, 09:35:10 PM
 #58

I am curious what China is going to do in the next hour or two when they wake up. Its at 333 now, I can see them gobbling some up. Tongue

The RSI was below thirty for fifteen minutes, going as low as 12 for two minutes. Way oversold...


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November 10, 2015, 09:54:26 PM
 #59

China just woke up and the trade bots are at war. Someone sold off a huge amount of coins, ate up most of the open orders, nervous people sold off quickly and when it hit 333, several hundred coin orders were buying them all back up. Just now the trade bots are in .01 wars getting other trade bots and market orders that don't fill at once to cancel.

Been an entertaining day at home working. Tongue


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November 11, 2015, 01:57:08 AM
 #60

I like seeing this bubble pop.  Was glad I didn't buy 450+ like some of the people who did and are holding the bag now.  Get ready to buy low soon.  Btc <100 in a few days
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