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Author Topic: Are we witnessing Willy 2.0 ?  (Read 1468 times)
nerioseole
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November 04, 2015, 08:32:05 AM
 #1

The recent price increase shows similar behaviors as "old" Willy (ref: https://willyreport.wordpress.com) which was operating from within Mt-Gox servers.

Is there a "new" Willy at Huobi, or Bitfinex?  

 

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November 04, 2015, 08:48:51 AM
 #2

i don't known this time seems more genuine, there are plenty of good news, the last one was simply there without a real reason besides doge-mania maybe
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November 04, 2015, 08:52:06 AM
 #3

We shall call it the decentralized "Sergey" bot?

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=%22MMM+pays%22&search_sort=video_date_uploaded
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November 04, 2015, 08:53:28 AM
 #4

I don't think so. I mean it's hard to know for sure, but amount of good news around Bitcoin is amazing like Amph has said so I am quite confident that it's not another willy this time.

Bitcoin is maturing, people seem to shift toward positive thinking about Bitcoin, mainstream media as well. It seems to me that this is a real deal this time around.
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November 04, 2015, 08:54:04 AM
 #5

The recent price increase shows similar behaviors as "old" Willy (ref: https://willyreport.wordpress.com) which was operating from within Mt-Gox servers.

Is there a "new" Willy at Huobi, or Bitfinex?  


Interesting to note that Willy bought massive amount of Bitcoins (270,000BTC)  in November. And November just started and we Bitcoin price has seen a sudden rise. You never know Wink

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November 04, 2015, 08:54:41 AM
 #6

If there is another "Willy" bot active, then it is definitely operating within the exchanges Huobi and OKCoin. Just look at their 24H volumes. Huobi 1,100,000BTC where OKCoin is having 750,000BTC worth of volume. You would expect the price to take a few steps back and relax around a certain price level for a few weeks, but no, this train doesn't know when to stop, which I don't mind of course, but as we all know, everything that goes up HARD, may come down HARD at some point.

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November 04, 2015, 08:56:22 AM
 #7

i don't known this time seems more genuine, there are plenty of good news, the last one was simply there without a real reason besides doge-mania maybe

There were good news back in Oct-Nov 2013, and plenty of potential apps... still, if you read the report (and please do; it is so well written - I am thinking turning it into a Hollywood movie script) the current buy cycles are very similar to Willy 1.0.



i don't remember good news as a massive as vat-free for europe for example

anyway i've already read that report, was very interested at the time, the total sum of the coins that were in play is so close to the one that the fbi(cia dunno who is in charge for it) cannot retrieve from he mtgox fiasco...
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November 04, 2015, 08:57:09 AM
 #8

trading bot never been dead, it is alway running after MtGox

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November 04, 2015, 08:58:33 AM
 #9

The recent price increase shows similar behaviors as "old" Willy (ref: https://willyreport.wordpress.com) which was operating from within Mt-Gox servers.

Is there a "new" Willy at Huobi, or Bitfinex?  


Interesting to note that Willy bought massive amount of Bitcoins (270,000BTC) was bought by Willy in November. And November just started and we Bitcoin price has seen a sudden rise. You never know Wink

Si are you trying to imply that Willy works only during the month of November? Interesting! Smiley

@nerioseole  Yes there were good news in November 2013 but not the good news of this magnitude. Also, we hadn't have $1 billion invested in 2013 in Bitcoin start-ups like we have this year. Yes, it just happened, $1 billion in about 10 months. We haven't had this interest of companies and banks in blockchain technology, etc.

I honestly believe it's different this time around!
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November 04, 2015, 09:17:22 AM
 #10

@nerioseole  Yes there were good news in November 2013 but not the good news of this magnitude. Also, we hadn't have $1 billion invested in 2013 in Bitcoin start-ups like we have this year. Yes, it just happened, $1 billion in about 10 months. We haven't had this interest of companies and banks in blockchain technology, etc.

I honestly believe it's different this time around!
I would disagree with you a "bit".  Cool  

Most of the $1B invested in what you call bitcoin, is actually invested in "Blockchain" technology.  If you are a bitcoin fan, it is the same.  If you are not a bitcoin fan, it is not the same... they mean "permission-ed" blockchains.  That is what the banks want.  They want to build their closed-garden AOL or CompuServe like in the 1990s.  

Which of the $1B investment is purely Bitcoin?


Regardless, off topic,  is Willy 2.0 alive?



I have to disagree with you as well! Smiley

You cannot just say that most of the VC money invested in this year is in centralized blockchains. This is simply not true. I don't have time to do the calculations but Bitcoin, and I mean real Bitcoin start-ups have gotten a lot of funding this year.

On the other side, even the money allocated for centralized blockchains will serve us well. Smart people will decide right away for the only right thing, dumb people will decide for these centralized solutions but we will get them back as well after things like Deutsche Bank $6.6 billion loss in one quarter start happening, but on a bigger scale.

About Willy, I don't think there is another one at this moment, but I can't guarantee this. Nobody knows this for sure.
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November 04, 2015, 09:23:04 AM
 #11

@nerioseole  Yes there were good news in November 2013 but not the good news of this magnitude. Also, we hadn't have $1 billion invested in 2013 in Bitcoin start-ups like we have this year. Yes, it just happened, $1 billion in about 10 months. We haven't had this interest of companies and banks in blockchain technology, etc.

I honestly believe it's different this time around!
I would disagree with you a "bit".  Cool  

Most of the $1B invested in what you call bitcoin, is actually invested in "Blockchain" technology.  If you are a bitcoin fan, it is the same.  If you are not a bitcoin fan, it is not the same... they mean "permission-ed" blockchains.  That is what the banks want.  They want to build their closed-garden AOL or CompuServe like in the 1990s.  

Which of the $1B investments are purely Bitcoin-related?


Regardless... off topic... is Willy 2.0 alive?



I'm OK with separate blockchains, and you hint at why in your post! I don't find it surprising that banks want their own private blockchain, any more than ISPs wanted their own private networks and internets. And just as private internets joined The Internet, I see private blockchains joining The Blockchain once consumers start asking about the advantages of The Blockchain - security, convenience, etc.

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November 04, 2015, 09:27:10 AM
 #12

If there is another "Willy" bot active, then it is definitely operating within the exchanges Huobi and OKCoin. Just look at their 24H volumes. Huobi 1,100,000BTC where OKCoin is having 750,000BTC worth of volume. You would expect the price to take a few steps back and relax around a certain price level for a few weeks, but no, this train doesn't know when to stop, which I don't mind of course, but as we all know, everything that goes up HARD, may come down HARD at some point.

Caviat: Chinese volumes are not to be trusted.  A buy is reported as one BTC, and a sell as one BTC - that we know so far.... At least divide by two every volume number you may obtain from Chinese exchanges.  To attract their customers, they want to show that they have volume - so they "show" volume.... if you know what I mean..

I know all these Chinese volumes are fake. That's why I consider them to be 8-10 times lower than what they show in normal volume days. Currently with other exchanges also having high volumes, I consider Chinese exchanges to now are 2-4 times lower. All this is regarding Huobi and OKCoin.

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November 04, 2015, 09:36:15 AM
 #13


I'm OK with separate blockchains, and you hint at why in your post! I don't find it surprising that banks want their own private blockchain, any more than ISPs wanted their own private networks and internets. And just as private internets joined The Internet, I see private blockchains joining The Blockchain once consumers start asking about the advantages of The Blockchain - security, convenience, etc.

Is Willy 2.0 alive?

I believe the importance Willy 1.0 is over-stated, and that November 2013 was due in large part to China. Willy 2.0? Sure, probably - nothing has happened to prevent the Chinese exchanges behaving like it's the Wild West (same as it's always been for Bitcoin) and there have been some amazing arbitrage opportunities over the past few weeks where I'd expect to see automated trades. But the current rise (and previous rises) ties in too neatly with the PRC "un-banning" BTC again.

tl;dr - almost certainly, but it's probably not what's driving the rise. I'm sceptical about it being even a major factor.

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November 04, 2015, 09:39:13 AM
 #14

Si are you trying to imply that Willy works only during the month of November? Interesting! Smiley

I never said Willy works only during the time of November.

This is what i said:
Interesting to note that Willy bought massive amount of Bitcoins (270,000BTC)  in November. And November just started and we Bitcoin price has seen a sudden rise. You never know Wink

I said it's interesting to note that This is November, the same month before a few years when Willy started Pumping and the price seems to go up suddenly...  Smiley

I don't know how you related it to "Willy works only during the time of November." Smiley

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November 04, 2015, 09:43:14 AM
 #15

The recent price increase shows similar behaviors as "old" Willy (ref: https://willyreport.wordpress.com) which was operating from within Mt-Gox servers.

Is there a "new" Willy at Huobi, or Bitfinex? 

 


I was expecting this rise since January 2015. Reward per block is going to be half next year and most probably the markets are preparing for it. People are buying it seeing that there will be less btc available in the market(because of the halvening, the chinese miners would sell less) and thus the price will increase. So yeah, i don't think this is another willy, its genuine.

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November 04, 2015, 09:49:47 AM
 #16

The first rule of bitcoin is that you do not talk about willybot Wink

With jokes aside...

Willy1.0 was created by Karpeles to make back the coins that were lost to hackers. Karpeles thought that being the owner of an exchange will give him the necessary edge in the trading game, so he could make back all that money. Because Karpeles isn't exactly a polymath, he failed miserably. His willybot was milked dry by traders, who unlike Karpeles, knew what they were doing. Karpeles trying to dig himself out of that hole caused this marvelous rise of 2013 Q4. All the wealth that was mysteriously lost by mtgox had never existed. It were all made up numbers meant to give an advantage to trading but that backfired badly. All the people who lost money to MtGox were actually the only ones who were fueling this pump and the ones who were clever enough to get out at the top, were the ones who pocketed that money. The stories about outrageous rise of demand in China were just stories to justify what was currently happening.

Willy2.0 is different though. I don't think that it was created out of similar desperation like 1.0. I think that the main drive of this bot is just to stimulate the market. After the launch of Gemini, even the most hardcore fanatics had to let go of their illusions of "Wall Street wanting to buy up bitcoin any second now". Finally the problem was faced, that there just isn't not enough demand for bitcoin, even to pay of the high costs of the mining network. The only way that the mining network can be sustained is by debt, otherwise the mining network would start to fall apart, together with the market (all those accumulated coins flooding the market in one big avalanche). So, something needed to be done to stimulate demand.
When taken things in a realistic perspective, then merchant adoption and news that spread vague positive sentiment have very little effect on the actual demand. They are mainly just for comforting bagholders. The main attraction for buying bitcoin is hopes of earning through speculation. But over the last years, bitcoin has become more and more unattractive as an speculative investment, so demand has gone down together with this hope.
What was needed the most, was to stimulate the market by simulated demand. That would inspire the miners to hold on to their coins, because "with this crazy demand, 5000$ coin can't be far enough" and it would attract new speculators who see a similar opportunity to 2013 Q4.
This is a very unpredictable and dangerous game that the operators of 2.0 are running, so they are brave men in my book. If their trading isn't good enough, then in the end of this rally, one of the Chinese exchange will do a mtgox and wealth will be again lost to mysterious places.

I'm personally loving this situation, because it makes things fun again.



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November 04, 2015, 09:56:58 AM
 #17

i don't known this time seems more genuine, there are plenty of good news, the last one was simply there without a real reason besides doge-mania maybe

I have a similar sentiment to Amph, this time around the markets fundamentals are even stronger than they were in 2014, interest in Bitcoin and merchant services is genuine and the technology is starting to get there.
There may be a willybot in Chinese ponzis but positive sentiment is just as much an indicator right now as any bots could be in moving the price, also exchanges are nowhere near as centralized as Gox so there would need to be a lot of them to keep this going.

(That said pumpkin has an interesting theory it looks like some effort was put into it, so as he said who knows the motivations behind it all )

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November 04, 2015, 10:10:25 AM
 #18

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November 04, 2015, 10:10:59 AM
 #19

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November 04, 2015, 10:14:38 AM
 #20

No idea whether this market is being battered with fresh willies. Even if it's a cleaner type of Willy, the eventual effects may be the same. Going up at this pace is likely to brew a nasty eventual hangover.

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