US Marshalls auction...what time will results/winner be announced today?

[vuduchyld]

Right now, I'm in limbo...not buying or selling until I see a more clear picture of market direction.

Love all the media coverage that finally just started...NYT article showed up on my phone this morning, so MSM is taking note.  But I'm concerned it's something of a setup.  The Huobi premium was as high as $50 yesterday, now back to $20 ish.

In my opinion, the odds of the market settling here ($400.92 as I type) are pretty minimal.  There WILL be more volatility.  I'd actually be happiest if it settled here, but I don't think it will.  My opinion is that it might settle lower.

FWIW, my personal estimate of value is $420-430 right now.  I'm sure everybody has their own fundamental methodology, but that's what mine says.  With a big move down, I'm a buyer around $280.  With a big move up, I'd sell (did sell one at $475).

It's POSSIBLE that the auction results will be the catalyst for a move up or down.  When will that be released?

[jaredboice]

Charts, data and/or Analysis or it's just like, your opinion man.
I think that $300s could be gone for good, but that's just like, my opinion

[houseo]

It's POSSIBLE that the auction results will be the catalyst for a move up or down.  When will that be released?

the results are never released unless the buyer decides to disclose.

[vuduchyld]

Charts, data and/or Analysis or it's just like, your opinion man.
I think that $300s could be gone for good, but that's just like, my opinion

Even with charts, data, and analysis, it's just opinion.  Nobody KNOWS anything.  And I'm not trying to sell mine or convince anybody they should share it or validate it. 

In fact, my opinion is only about VALUE, not PRICE.  I don't even attempt to guess about price.  When price goes far enough below my opinion of value, I buy.  When it goes far above my opinion of value, I sell.  (That rarely happens...my opinion of bitcoin is generally higher than the opinion the market expresses.)

It's too boring and long to type in the 10 minutes I have available, but my opinion of value is based on an analysis of global money supply, specifically M0 and M1 money supply.  It's based on how much market share I expect bitcoin to have in terms of its use as currency and in remittance markets in a rolling 5 year period.  My opinion on the 2019-2020 value (not price, value) hasn't changed much in the last couple of years and may not until we see more evidence of adoption, especially in remittance markets.  Then I take the 2019-2020 value and discount it back to present using an implied capitalization rate, that, again, is just an opinion. 

You've probably seen the various slider graphs that allow a person to select certain options for adoption?  It's kinda like that, BUT I believe very strongly that most of those that I've seen are massively flawed because they appear to count mining transactions in their velocity calculations, which is beyond ridiculous.  The velocity of bitcoin is significantly lower than they estimate. 

Of course, it's all just a guess.  But I THINK that at $400, price and value are reasonably close right now, which is quite rare.  And when bitcoin crosses the price/value line, it typically over-corrects massively. I'm expecting some kind of over-compensation one way or another.  If we go down much from here, I'm a buyer. 

[vuduchyld]

It's POSSIBLE that the auction results will be the catalyst for a move up or down.  When will that be released?

the results are never released unless the buyer decides to disclose.

Thanks for the info.

[mr angry]

It's being held now between 8:00am EST and 2:00pm EST, so it's due to finish in two hours. They never release the prices of the bids, we will have to wait until some bidders tell us. It usually takes a few days for the results to get out, I don't expect to hear anything until after the weekend.

Are the usual suspects bidding again this time?

[adamstgBit]

It's being held now between 8:00am EST and 2:00pm EST, so it's due to finish in two hours. They never release the prices of the bids, we will have to wait until some bidders tell us. It usually takes a few days for the results to get out, I don't expect to hear anything until after the weekend.

Are the usual suspects bidding again this time?

there being extra secretive this time as to who is bidding.

[Hunyadi]

It's being held now between 8:00am EST and 2:00pm EST, so it's due to finish in two hours. They never release the prices of the bids, we will have to wait until some bidders tell us. It usually takes a few days for the results to get out, I don't expect to hear anything until after the weekend.

Are the usual suspects bidding again this time?

there being extra secretive this time as to who is bidding.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS1g55EAZbY

[gentlemand]

there being extra secretive this time as to who is bidding.

Well, the original leak of bidding applications was a mistake. I don't think anyone is supposed to know anything and it's up to those who took part to let information slip if they wish.

[mr angry]

there being extra secretive this time as to who is bidding.

Well, the original leak of bidding applications was a mistake. I don't think anyone is supposed to know anything and it's up to those who took part to let information slip if they wish.

Did the US Marshalls get sued for that leak? America is the land of the lawsuit, and there were people with serious money whose identity was revealed. They could argue that it affected their Bitcoin business interests. Maybe I haven't heard about any lawsuit because they got an out of court settlement, or maybe I'm out of touch with the news.

[gentlemand]

Did the US Marshalls get sued for that leak? America is the land of the lawsuit, and there were people with serious money whose identity was revealed. They could argue that it affected their Bitcoin business interests. Maybe I haven't heard about any lawsuit because they got an out of court settlement, or maybe I'm out of touch with the news.

Not to my knowledge and it was only a list of people who'd expressed an interest in registering rather than actual registered bidders. Still, I'm sure it raised a few eyebrows hither and thither.

[jaredboice]

Charts, data and/or Analysis or it's just like, your opinion man.
I think that $300s could be gone for good, but that's just like, my opinion

Even with charts, data, and analysis, it's just opinion.  Nobody KNOWS anything.  And I'm not trying to sell mine or convince anybody they should share it or validate it.  

In fact, my opinion is only about VALUE, not PRICE.  I don't even attempt to guess about price.  When price goes far enough below my opinion of value, I buy.  When it goes far above my opinion of value, I sell.  (That rarely happens...my opinion of bitcoin is generally higher than the opinion the market expresses.)

It's too boring and long to type in the 10 minutes I have available, but my opinion of value is based on an analysis of global money supply, specifically M0 and M1 money supply.  It's based on how much market share I expect bitcoin to have in terms of its use as currency and in remittance markets in a rolling 5 year period.  My opinion on the 2019-2020 value (not price, value) hasn't changed much in the last couple of years and may not until we see more evidence of adoption, especially in remittance markets.  Then I take the 2019-2020 value and discount it back to present using an implied capitalization rate, that, again, is just an opinion.  

You've probably seen the various slider graphs that allow a person to select certain options for adoption?  It's kinda like that, BUT I believe very strongly that most of those that I've seen are massively flawed because they appear to count mining transactions in their velocity calculations, which is beyond ridiculous.  The velocity of bitcoin is significantly lower than they estimate.  

Of course, it's all just a guess.  But I THINK that at $400, price and value are reasonably close right now, which is quite rare.  And when bitcoin crosses the price/value line, it typically over-corrects massively. I'm expecting some kind of over-compensation one way or another.  If we go down much from here, I'm a buyer.  

yes but you haven't added substance to your reasons why you will be a buyer at $280.  $280, IN MY OPINION, is long gone.  However I can add substance to this opinion by presenting the following chart:



Except for a flash-crash with a very fast bounce, Bitcoin has never really (after recovering from a long bull/bear cycle) gone parabolic up to almost half of its previous all-time-high and then gone back down and retraced even half of the move.  Other then a very quick flash crash and a bounce, if it goes down to $280, it will be the first move of its kind in the entire history of bitcoin.

You can see from the chart that at the tail end of each cycle, once it started getting up to half of its previous ATH, it was pretty much off to the races.  There was an anomolous crash right before the 2013 rally, but it did not last longer than a day and the bounce occurred almost right away.  If History repeats, $280 might be possible very briefly but it would likely retrace the crash in less than a day or so.  If you're trying to guarantee you get your hands on more bitcoin, it's a strategy with a low probability for a favorable outcome.
  

[vuduchyld]

yes but you haven't added substance to your reasons why you will be a buyer at $280.  $280, IN MY OPINION, is long gone.  However I can add substance to this opinion by presenting the following chart:



Except for a flash-crash with a very fast bounce, Bitcoin has never once (after recovering from a long bull/bear cycle) gone parabolic up to almost half of its previous all-time-high and then gone back down and retraced even half of the move.  Other then a very quick flash crash and a bounce, if it goes down to $280, it will be the first move of its kind in the entire history of bitcoin.

You can see from the chart that at the tail end of each cycle, once it started getting up to half of its previous ATH, it was pretty much off to the races.  ie.  There was an anomolous crash right before the 2013 rally, but it did not last longer than a day.  If History repeats, $280 might be possible for a day or two if you are lucky

I think that is credible analysis on your part.  You may well be correct.

You're looking much harder at price than I do.  I try to look at value, note differences between price/value, and then act on those differences as I perceive them.  I'm also not THAT interested in trading, far more in HODLing.  So I'm ONLY looking to act when I see what I perceive as extremes.  My last buys were in August at $215 and $230 and my last sell was this week at $475. 

So $280 is simply a 33.3% discount to my perception of current value.  That's where it came from.  Nothing magical about it at all.  If we don't hit that, I won't be a buyer.  For now.  Which is cool with me.  I don't trade on my entire stash, anyway.  But eventually, my perception of the current discounted value may increase or the price may decrease enough to flash my signal. 

[jaredboice]

I hear you.  Not totally following you though.  For me, Bitcoin's value is probably a million dollars.  But I digress.  Once we put a dollar sign in front of it, we're talking about price, which is what it's "worth" at any given moment to someone else.

[vuduchyld]

I hear you.  Not totally following you though.  For me, Bitcoin's value is probably a million dollars.  But I digress.  Once we put a dollar sign in front of it, we're talking about price, which is what it's "worth" at any given moment to someone else.

Right!  Exactly right.

Well, I understand that there are differences, but I'm trying to approach bitcoin the way of the Benjamin Graham school.  Graham, if you're not familiar with him, Graham taught Warren Buffet about investing.  In the stock market, you are actually buying a piece of ownership in a company.  Graham would analyze the company to understand the fundamental value--looking at things like earnings and growth to determine fundamental value.  If you think IBM is worth (VALUE) $80 per share, but the market says (PRICE) it's worth $70 per share, you buy.  If the market says it's worth $90, you sell what you have because you get $90 for something you think is worth $80.  

Among other things, one of my professional pursuits is business valuation.  Banks hire me to put a value on small, closely-held businesses.  So my approach to bitcoin is certainly not impartial, but rather it is formed by my (professional) lens on the universe.  I could be totally wrong about it.  I find it impossible to put a current price on the fundamentals of bitcoin, so I've chosen to reach out 5 years to determine the 2020 value.  There really ARE no current fundamentals.  It can't really be valued, in my view.  So to get a value, I look at what I think will happen in 2020, what bitcoins role will be in payments and remittances, what portion of the total global M0 and M1 money supply that would be.  Again, my projections are lower than what you'd normally see, because I think EVERYBODY ELSE (pretty conceited, I know) has mistakenly evaluated velocity.  I think bitcoin is probably worth $2500 in 2019-2020 based on the role I see it taking on.  Then I discount it back based on cap rates close to 40%, which reflects significant risk of failure.  Why?  I think BLOCKCHAIN is here to stay.  I'm NOT sure that bitcoin is the ultimate manifestation of the blockchain.  There are issues with block size, transaction times, etc... that represent enough risk for me to imply a high cap rate.  

That all gets me to my current "value".  It's totally subjective.  Like I say, I'm not trying to convince anybody else.  Barring more clarity on adoption and development, this time next year, I'd say it might be closer to $600-630 (value, not necessarily price).  Then, using my own subjective value, I make decisions about whether or not I think the price is telling me to sell or telling me to buy.  

I will tell you...I have rarely sold.  I continue to think the market undervalues bitcoin.  But I don't think it undervalues it quite as much as you think it does.  Could it be worth $1mm?  Sure, but I'd have to a lot more development of the technology and a lot more of a trend towards adoption (in the areas I see likely adoption).  My fundamental VALUE is subject to change every day based on new information.  I would also say that right now the market opinion of value (price) comes pretty close to matching my opinion of underlying value.  So I'll sit on what I've got and wait!

[jaredboice]

I hear you.  Not totally following you though.  For me, Bitcoin's value is probably a million dollars.  But I digress.  Once we put a dollar sign in front of it, we're talking about price, which is what it's "worth" at any given moment to someone else.

Right!  Exactly right.

Well, I understand that there are differences, but I'm trying to approach bitcoin the way of the Benjamin Graham school.  Graham, if you're not familiar with him, Graham taught Warren Buffet about investing.  In the stock market, you are actually buying a piece of ownership in a company.  Graham would analyze the company to understand the fundamental value--looking at things like earnings and growth to determine fundamental value.  If you think IBM is worth (VALUE) $80 per share, but the market says (PRICE) it's worth $70 per share, you buy.  If the market says it's worth $90, you sell what you have because you get $90 for something you think is worth $80.  

Among other things, one of my professional pursuits is business valuation.  Banks hire me to put a value on small, closely-held businesses.  So my approach to bitcoin is certainly not impartial, but rather it is formed by my (professional) lens on the universe.  I could be totally wrong about it.  I find it impossible to put a current price on the fundamentals of bitcoin, so I've chosen to reach out 5 years to determine the 2020 value.  There really ARE no current fundamentals.  It can't really be valued, in my view.  So to get a value, I look at what I think will happen in 2020, what bitcoins role will be in payments and remittances, what portion of the total global M0 and M1 money supply that would be.  Again, my projections are lower than what you'd normally see, because I think EVERYBODY ELSE (pretty conceited, I know) has mistakenly evaluated velocity.  I think bitcoin is probably worth $2500 in 2019-2020 based on the role I see it taking on.  Then I discount it back based on cap rates close to 40%, which reflects significant risk of failure.  Why?  I think BLOCKCHAIN is here to stay.  I'm NOT sure that bitcoin is the ultimate manifestation of the blockchain.  There are issues with block size, transaction times, etc... that represent enough risk for me to imply a high cap rate.  

That all gets me to my current "value".  It's totally subjective.  Like I say, I'm not trying to convince anybody else.  Barring more clarity on adoption and development, this time next year, I'd say it might be closer to $600-630 (value, not necessarily price).  Then, using my own subjective value, I make decisions about whether or not I think the price is telling me to sell or telling me to buy.  

I will tell you...I have rarely sold.  I continue to think the market undervalues bitcoin.  But I don't think it undervalues it quite as much as you think it does.  Could it be worth $1mm?  Sure, but I'd have to a lot more development of the technology and a lot more of a trend towards adoption (in the areas I see likely adoption).  My fundamental VALUE is subject to change every day based on new information.  I would also say that right now the market opinion of value (price) comes pretty close to matching my opinion of underlying value.  So I'll sit on what I've got and wait!

All I got from that information is that your "evaluation methods" of PRICE are completely subjective.  You haven't defined what you mean when you say that your projections are lower than everyone else who has "mistakenly evaluated velocity." You would additionally add more clarity by explaining why exactly you think Bitcoin isn't that undervalued right now?

There's only going to be 21 million of them.  The US just added $300 Billion to our $18 Trillion dollar debt just a few days ago. The Chinese have something like $22 Trillion in bank deposits.  The Bitcoin market is only $5 Billion.  It's a drop in the bucket.  

In response to your statement: "There really ARE no current fundamentals."

As far as value goes, it's an open-source decentralized payment and data retrieval system that owes allegiance to no borders or boundaries, and can transmit value virtually instantaneously to anyone in the world for little to no fees and without a middle man.  The VALUE of that protocol is worth Trillions in market cap when you consider all the traditional payment technologies it can displace 

[freedomno1]

there being extra secretive this time as to who is bidding.

Well I assume Tim Draper may want more coins, the rest of the interested parties we will know more of after the auction is completed.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/us-usa-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0SU28Q20151105

The U.S. Marshals Service said a six-hour online auction it held for about 44,341 bitcoins worth more than $17.2 million drew 11 registered bidders and 30 bids.

No further details will be released until the bitcoins have been transferred to any winners, which could occur by Monday, said Lynzey Donahue, a Marshals Service spokeswoman.

RIP Silk Road Coins

[gentlemand]

there being extra secretive this time as to who is bidding.

Well I assume Tim Draper may want more coins, the rest of the interested parties we will know more of after the auction is completed.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/us-usa-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0SU28Q20151105

The U.S. Marshals Service said a six-hour online auction it held for about 44,341 bitcoins worth more than $17.2 million drew 11 registered bidders and 30 bids.

No further details will be released until the bitcoins have been transferred to any winners, which could occur by Monday, said Lynzey Donahue, a Marshals Service spokeswoman.

RIP Silk Road Coins

I think Mr Draper has said he's not taking part. As for the coins themselves they have a new life to look forward to in high society with that grade a seal of government approval. I hope they don't get bullied.

[freedomno1]

there being extra secretive this time as to who is bidding.

Well I assume Tim Draper may want more coins, the rest of the interested parties we will know more of after the auction is completed.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/us-usa-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0SU28Q20151105

The U.S. Marshals Service said a six-hour online auction it held for about 44,341 bitcoins worth more than $17.2 million drew 11 registered bidders and 30 bids.

No further details will be released until the bitcoins have been transferred to any winners, which could occur by Monday, said Lynzey Donahue, a Marshals Service spokeswoman.

RIP Silk Road Coins

I think Mr Draper has said he's not taking part. As for the coins themselves they have a new life to look forward to in high society with that grade a seal of government approval. I hope they don't get bullied.

Maybe I was just thinking of Silk Road coin winners, on the other hand they may enjoy being part of high society, but they will always have their roots of coming from a drug filled world

(I can just imagine the coin taint XD)

[zimmah]

In my opinion we are at about that dip you see late 2012.

We might see up to 3 large spikes in a row.

$3000~5000 for the first, dropping down to $1500~1750 ish
$15000~25000 ish for the second, dropping down to $4000~6000ish
and in case of a 3rd, $30,000~50000 ish dropping down to $16000~20000 ish.


note this whole process might take a year or so to complete.