2)
100% of time. The nonce field is only 32 bit (why Satoshi? 64 bit nonce would have made things so much more elegant).
32 bit = 4 billion values = an average GPU will complete a nonce range in about 10-30 seconds. A major pool (~1TH/s) will collectively attempt 232 nonce ranges per second.
I would have to say this is quite frequently not true......, just out of interest I have been running some analysis.... with a specially modified FPGA bit file
Here we have the SAME base nonce round and same initial base hash, and TWO shares very close.(take into account indian)
accepted share 2ad74038 (difficulty 1.65070)
accepted share d5c79238 (difficulty 22.59623)
These were issued within a few uS of each other. (yep... Microsecond NOT Millisecond)
I have quite a lot of these in an hour, I wanted to see just how 'random' the distributions were and to see if there were any optimizations possible......