Rally Analysis

[Torque]

Laughing my ass off at all the "sudden" TA crap that comes out of the woodwork after a mysterious rally. Stupid random lines drawn on charts.  Seen this crap before, but where? Oh yeah that's right, I remember now.... two years ago.

You guys need to give it up, you always get proven wrong.  And then you mysteriously vanish when the market bottoms out and goes nowhere.

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[ssmc2]

Laughing my ass off at all the "sudden" TA crap that comes out of the woodwork after a mysterious rally. Stupid random lines drawn on charts.  Seen this crap before, but where? Oh yeah that's right, I remember now.... two years ago.

You guys need to give it up, you always get proven wrong.  And then you mysteriously vanish when the market bottoms out and goes nowhere.

[koryu]

I don't find this rally mysterious at all.  

Bullish above this line:




Few days ago I loaded the historical prices of gold and bitcoin and created some charts.

Here is one, showing the performance of gold vs bitcoin in 2015:



and one more:

large image

[NorrisK]

Keep those charts coming! They are awesome to look at and explain very well why the price returned to a normal lower level.

Everybody should have expected the price to collapse again, especially after rising by 100 usd in a day.

[koryu]

ty

chart looks bit less bullish today morning, if 4hour candle closes below 369 on stamp...  

we need to restart the engine for the next wave today or we lose steam

[MatTheCat]

Keep those charts coming! They are awesome to look at and explain very well why the price returned to a normal lower level.

Everybody should have expected the price to collapse again, especially after rising by 100 usd in a day.

That sharp spike clearly had a lot to do with lots of short positions getting squeezed.

You can see on BFXdata.com, that finex short positions soared as Bitcoin went above $330, and crashed as Bitcoin kept reaching higher and higher. The short positions crashing aka, buying Bitcoin to cover themselves and leave the market, would have sent Bitcoin inexplicably high.....

.....But currently trading at $370, that is just $40 above the previous $330 break out zone, although I suspect that the market is probably a bit out of steam in both directions at the moment. Bears are screaming down, Bulls are screaming up. I think the reality is that Bitcoin farts along sideyways for a while, with perhaps a little more bias towards testing $350, than $380.

[Zarathustra]

Great Charts!

[koryu]

yep 500 was pretty sure short squeeze.

chart looks pretty nice now, we maybe found the support line, which was tested twice with low volume.
At least it was a nice opportunity to go long @365 with stop loss 355, 3% risk (stamp numbers). bears need more ammo to kill the new longs.

[koryu]

we are going sideways way longer than expected. I was bullish all the way up since 200. But for now price is in control of arbitrage and short-term traders. We had a lot of good news and I expected we would go at least to 600 in this run. I am not so sure anymore tbh. Seems like new money is too scared to buy in after the race to 500. Still holding my coins but watch carefully.

Most interesting thing happening is that the premium between exchanges is decreasing. It looks like some people take advantage of arbitrage trading mainly between btc-e and okcoin. Also ltc arbitrage is in the house, ltc longs on okcoin got killed in a sick move. this should scare the shit out of short term traders.

[koryu]

whales in control

[crytoboost]

we are going sideways way longer than expected. I was bullish all the way up since 200. But for now price is in control of arbitrage and short-term traders. We had a lot of good news and I expected we would go at least to 600 in this run. I am not so sure anymore tbh. Seems like new money is too scared to buy in after the race to 500. Still holding my coins but watch carefully.

Most interesting thing happening is that the premium between exchanges is decreasing. It looks like some people take advantage of arbitrage trading mainly between btc-e and okcoin. Also ltc arbitrage is in the house, ltc longs on okcoin got killed in a sick move. this should scare the shit out of short term traders.

That is really good news for those who are still holding their coins i am also expecting $600 will be achievable with this next bubble so when can expect $1000 or even more than before end of this year is that possible?

[koryu]

we are going sideways way longer than expected. I was bullish all the way up since 200. But for now price is in control of arbitrage and short-term traders. We had a lot of good news and I expected we would go at least to 600 in this run. I am not so sure anymore tbh. Seems like new money is too scared to buy in after the race to 500. Still holding my coins but watch carefully.

Most interesting thing happening is that the premium between exchanges is decreasing. It looks like some people take advantage of arbitrage trading mainly between btc-e and okcoin. Also ltc arbitrage is in the house, ltc longs on okcoin got killed in a sick move. this should scare the shit out of short term traders.

That is really good news for those who are still holding their coins i am also expecting $600 will be achievable with this next bubble so when can expect $1000 or even more than before end of this year is that possible?

nobody can say that for sure.
But the next events to watch are the second scaling workshop (Dec 6th-7th 2015) and halving in Juli 2016.
since the last workshop price is constantly rising, so if there is progress in solving scalability that could have a huge influence on price.

[koryu]

small update about recent movement from china.  

moving averages are my favorite indicators right now:

after 10ma crossed we have gone down as expected. 50ma has been the support during the correction.
after the cross of 200ma and 365ma the buying started pushing the daily candle above the 10ma which has been a buy signal before and leaded to more buying.
yesterday's candle was way above the bollinger bands on the 4 hour chart which was not sustainable and the correction was inevitable.





from yesterday:

[Afrikoin]

small update about recent movement from china.  

moving averages are my favorite indicators right now:

after 10ma crossed we have gone down as expected. 50ma has been the support during the correction.
after the cross of 200ma and 365ma the buying started pushing the daily candle above the 10ma which has been a buy signal before and leaded to more buying.
yesterday's candle was way above the bollinger bands on the 4 hour chart which was not sustainable and the correction was inevitable.




from yesterday:

Hi Koryu

You are welcome to drop some of your charts and analysis/expectations on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new whenever

[Tstar]

hey koryu, at least now we know on thing: if China moves BTC shakes for the good or the bad. I don't clearly see if we're on another big pump again but that was big spike yesterday.

[koryu]

small update about recent movement from china.  

moving averages are my favorite indicators right now:

after 10ma crossed we have gone down as expected. 50ma has been the support during the correction.
after the cross of 200ma and 365ma the buying started pushing the daily candle above the 10ma which has been a buy signal before and leaded to more buying.
yesterday's candle was way above the bollinger bands on the 4 hour chart which was not sustainable and the correction was inevitable.




from yesterday:

Hi Koryu

You are welcome to drop some of your charts and analysis/expectations on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new whenever

Hey,
thx I will do :-) already did a few times

hey koryu, at least now we know on thing: if China moves BTC shakes for the good or the bad. I don't clearly see if we're on another big pump again but that was big spike yesterday.

yep China is a big player, but there are also many foreigners on chinese exchanges who want to trade without fees.
I think that this time the move started from china because the 200ma crossed the 365ma on chinese exchanges first, on bitstamp it will cross tomorrow.

for short term predictions I am watching fibu levels, next resistance should be around 385$, also watching the 4hour bollinger bands to see when its overbought. no long term predictions from my side here.
just hold or trade some waves when its overbought

[koryu]

385 target reached but the new weekly candle looks like limited upside or rollercoaster when above 385



 
while orderbooks on western exchanges start to look less bullish, btcchina bidsum is growing...
the premium between china and us is 10$, chinese fear another devaluation of cny?

[koryu]

another test of 50ma possible, if it didnt hold, resistance is most likely found at 2000cny and 1800cny
outbreak of upper line (2500 cny) could target 4000cny

yellow line = 50ma

[koryu]

chart looks pretty similar like during the last scaling workshop and would also fit in the triangle.

anyway most important will be the result of the workshop: how bitcoin can scale for mass adoption? What is the best solution?

[koryu]

this has gone up quicker as expected.

okcoin has formed a channel up on the 4h