PREDICT BIT COIN VALUE.

[tminer]

Psychology is a much better predictor than mathematics as far as the bitcoin market is concerned.

yes peoples approach towards bitcoin may have some serious impact on its value. if they fear it is not a safe treasury for their wealth [may due to fear of any ban of its use, or possibility of some hacking etc], then value goes down.

otherwise as per current trend, its value normally increase.

[2GOOD]

IMO the GPU miners will not sell their bitcoins right away after the reward halves. They will probably wait for a better price, so just before asics enter diff. can drop a little as for the price I think it will slowly climb up to 12-13USD at the end of the year.
That's my prediction nothing special 

[uk1]

no higher than $15

[BTCHybrid]

Seems like the price will go up very slightly but I think Asics coming out will have a bigger effect on the economy than the halving of the block rewards.

[krjalone]

Hoping price will go up slightly and no major changes value in future.

[Chris Weber]

my prediction: it will rise to double the current usd value during the coming two years

[sebamatusr]

Very interesting thread, I've got a few questions (noob questions).

A hypothetical raise in bitcoin prices, whether it's because of rewards being halved or an increasing interest from the general public in this currency, would only affect people who is already IN the market, legacy miners/customers sort of speak?
I ask this because bitcoin is still valued in ordinary currencies (USD/EU etc) so, new customers/miners would get their bitcoins, but if they want to sell/buy anything involving bitcoins, the prices are still going to be listed in USD/EU.
For example:

Bitcoin now (mt.gox) = 12 usd
Bitcoin in a far future = 50 usd
T-shirt now = 50 usd
T-shirt in a far future = 50 usd

That would mean if you want to buy the t-shirt, you would have to spend 50 dollars either way, the difference being, now you'd have to buy ~4BTC at a 12 usd price, an in the future just 1BTC at 50usd, but the price is still the same.

I'm a little confused so I would appreciate if someone could explain this to me.

[nobbynobbynoob]

If a T-shirt costs $50 now, that same T-shirt might well cost $150 in a "far future" thanks to Mr Bernanke and his Printing Press (tm). (Though this isn't a certainty, merely a likelihood.)

Most bitcoin-accepting retailers still peg their prices in fiat (thus the BTC price to pay will fluctuate with the exchange rate) but in future we may well see more sellers setting prices purely in BTC terms, e.g. selling a T-shirt for BTC2 (or in a "far future" scenario, maybe BTC0,002! ) regardless of the BTC/$ exchange rate, just like a train ride between, say, Zürich and Geneva, set in Swiss francs, will cost any foreign visitor (assuming not in possession of any railcard) an arm and a leg, almost regardless of the exchange rate. (In fact, that applies to almost everything in Switzerland: very expensive, end of. )

[sebamatusr]

in future we may well see more sellers setting prices purely in BTC terms, e.g. selling a T-shirt for BTC2 (or in a "far future" scenario, maybe BTC0,002! ) regardless of the BTC/$ exchange rate

Okay. So if bitcoin value rises, it would be a good thing for miners but a bad thing for people who want to invest fiat money in BTC?
Am I not seeing something? [Bitcoin value = exchange rate]? or am I mixing stuff?

[organofcorti]

Okay. So if bitcoin value rises, it would be a good thing for miners but a bad thing for people who want to invest fiat money in BTC?
Am I not seeing something? [Bitcoin value = exchange rate]? or am I mixing stuff?

If you're buying btc as an investment, then you're assuming the exchange rate will rise (more fiat per btc) after you invest. It's a long position.

If you're purchasing btc as a credit card alternative (buy small amount when you need them, spend immediately) then changes in the exchange rate should have minimal effect.

[SynOps]

I see it hitting between $15-$16 within a day or two of the "halving".
I am a GPU Miner, looking into ASIC, but , yea, I will still probably sell or trade my coins, I only see people with less than 500 bitcoins saving them in hopes that it rises as fast as it has in November.

[arlekyn13]

If a T-shirt costs $50 now, that same T-shirt might well cost $150 in a "far future" thanks to Mr Bernanke and his Printing Press (tm). (Though this isn't a certainty, merely a likelihood.)

Most bitcoin-accepting retailers still peg their prices in fiat (thus the BTC price to pay will fluctuate with the exchange rate) but in future we may well see more sellers setting prices purely in BTC terms, e.g. selling a T-shirt for BTC2 (or in a "far future" scenario, maybe BTC0,002! ) regardless of the BTC/$ exchange rate, just like a train ride between, say, Zürich and Geneva, set in Swiss francs, will cost any foreign visitor (assuming not in possession of any railcard) an arm and a leg, almost regardless of the exchange rate. (In fact, that applies to almost everything in Switzerland: very expensive, end of. )

I dare to say that future is pretty far away. The T-shirt being sold at BTC2 and $50 in your example would be sold for a different amount of BTC if its $ market price would be $150, according to what $150 would mean in BTC by that time. Unless, the costs involved in producing that T-shirt would remain the same in BTC, which would imply paying everything with BTC, including salaries But that would mean the end of the $, wouldn't it?

[nobbynobbynoob]

I dare to say that future is pretty far away. The T-shirt being sold at BTC2 and $50 in your example would be sold for a different amount of BTC if its $ market price would be $150, according to what $150 would mean in BTC by that time. Unless, the costs involved in producing that T-shirt would remain the same in BTC, which would imply paying everything with BTC, including salaries But that would mean the end of the $, wouldn't it?

I envisage a future scenario (that might not be more than a few years ahead) in which the purchasing power of the $ has been seriously eroded, even more than it has already. Bernanke has admitted to wanting to debase the $ a lot more to relieve the debt crisis, at least on that point he's come clean.

Investors in bitcoin are really more interested in its purchasing power, to which the $ exchange rate is a guide. What will we be able to buy with one bitcoin in future? It's not much good the exchange rate being over $100 if that amount is worth no more than $10 today. But if the BTC exchange rate becomes astronomically high, as in >>$1000 in today's money, then the exact exchange rate won't be as important anyway, I don't think, because there'll be less need to trade to fiat if BTC is already entrenched enough to justify that price. On a pro-rata basis this would not theoretically require anywhere near critical-mass adoption to achieve, but justifying a $1000 price and actually having one on Mt Gox or anywhere else are two different things, of course.

[Frequency]

My thoughts go something like; 

The BTC economie, products and services u can buy with BTC at the moment is still in a premature stadium, and yet it is very succesful already..   ..

Do to this still lots of people never heard of it like some countries were the BTC will be the best thing they have heard in years do to economic and repression by government..

Some parts of the world still have to find out about it..parts were millions of people live as they become familiar with it it,s very likely to start using the BTC...so i say in a few years from now when BTC becomes more wide spread there will be a huge value rise because of the limited availability of BTC.. so i think that the demand for BTC will become much more than the supply and that it will happen sooner or later.. So i,m in it for the long run..and will only sell to fiat if i could pay off my morgage at ones and than say goodbye to my bank forever.. ulimate freedom wish..

U must also keep in mind that we were living the past 4 years with a flood of BTC comming to us do to the 50BTC reward sys..the so called easy coins...this will be over..it will get harder to gain coins in a few months even when ASIC hit ...the people with the most money to invest will be the ones that get the most shares out of the  block rewards..

So the people sitting on there BTC will get tempted sooner or later to sell..

It,s like a poker game.. you go allin or you slow play but u will try to win anyway around...