PREDICT BIT COIN VALUE.

[tminer]

everybody,

 how do u predict the exchange rate for BITCOIN after btc/block goes to 25.

will it double or gradually doubles or remain same or reduce etc?


i wish every one to share your knowledge .[   it is interesting if some one validate his/her claim with some mathematics  ]

[aodh]

It may increase or decrease, but this will not be a result of the block reward changing.

Fundamentally, the reason for this is that the block reward change is predictable (we already know it is going to happen). Suppose that the effect of the block reward halving was that the price would double. Then people would buy bitcoins now in anticipation of this - and as a result the price would go up, until it reached double the price now, before the block reward halves. But of course, we've known this would happen since the start of Bitcoin, so in fact no such sudden change could ever occur as a result of this predictable event. Any changes in the value of the Bitcoin must result from events that are unpredictable by at least some part of the market.

[DarkHyudrA]

Well, it probably will have a bit of incerase since the cost to mine new Bitcoins increase, but things aren't simple math, so no, it will not double.

If the price doubles, it isn't because of the halving of the blocks value.

Best Regards,
DarkHyudrA

[josephliton]

If you believe in the future bitcoins,you also  have to believe that their value will have to eventually sky rocket by several orders of magnitude.

[mcgravier]

If you believe in the future bitcoins,you also  have to believe that their value will have to eventually sky rocket by several orders of magnitude.

This wont happen any time soon. Especialy since 78% of BTC is not in the circulation - pepole who have those coins may "choke" the exchange rate for many years. But I think that reward drop will cause slight increase in value during next months - since inflation will be drastically reduced, there will be some pressure for rises.

[yogi]

Psychology is a much better predictor than mathematics as far as the bitcoin market is concerned. Recent rise was due to peoples perception of the impending drop in reward. Currently we are in a correction which will likely bottom around the high eights. If bitcoin adoption continues then we will see growth again after the new year.
(Note, I am often wrong)

[zxyzxy]

if a person could predict bitcoin value, that person would be really really rich, not possible thou.

[Bitexchange]

if a person could predict bitcoin value, that person would be really really rich, not possible thou.

In the long run, alot of people will get rich if bitcoin becomes successfull.
Im always wondering how many BTC the richest 100 Bitcoin holders (persons) have.
If bitcoin will be worth 1000x more than now, there will be many millionaires, but will there be billionaires?

[Haole]

I'm predicting I have no idea...

Seriously though, I saw a cool quote today on a coffee shop's sandwich board which could apply as a relevant comment in this case perhaps.

"The best way to predict the future is to create it."

I just bought my first BTCs today so naturally I'm hopeful they will increase in purchasing power going forward.

Cheers!

[pangaea]

The price will likely increase with an increase in the difficulty to mine. Bitcoin has been constantly deflating as a result of the difficulty. Two bitcoins in todays market would've been like 20000 at one time.

[nobbynobbynoob]

The Bitcointalk mantra on the appreciation question just has to be:

Remember the 10k pizzas.

(Links to laszlo's 10k-pizza thread are shared often!)

[organofcorti]

The price will likely increase with an increase in the difficulty to mine. Bitcoin has been constantly deflating as a result of the difficulty. Two bitcoins in todays market would've been like 20000 at one time.

Let me rephrase that for you:

"The the difficulty to mine will likely increase after an increase in price. Bitcoin has been constantly deflating as a result of something that has nothing to do with the difficulty."

[Fcx35x10]

$1,000 per ฿1.0 in 20 years

[nobbynobbynoob]

$1,000 per ฿1.0 in 20 years

With Bernanke's printing press, I'd say within two years.

[arlekyn13]

Bitcoin value should be measured by the amount of personal benefit/pleasure/things each unit can bring. Just as any other currency. At this specific point, there is absolutely no hope that all govs in the world would drop national currencies in order to adopt this specific currency. So we all still measure the bitcoin value by its... dollar (or any other existing currency) value. Because, right now, when i go shopping, I'll have to pay with a regular currency for my shopping.
The increased mining difficulty, as mentioned by many others before, will not impact the bitcoin value very much. What could and eventually would impact the bitcoin value (and I'd dare to say, it's already acting on its value) it's the publicity around bitcoin. More and more people find out about this currency and for various reasons become involved with it. That means a larger amount of regular currency is being "mixed" with the bitcoin economy, thus pushing the bitcoin value higher. It's not a fast process, the price has been often influenced by other factors such as market maneuvers (made by rich investors), general panic, major exchangers being hacked and so on. But, despite these sudden price drops, the bitcoin will continue to increase in value simply because more and more regular currency will be used to exchange.
I apologize for my possible grammar mistakes, I'm not a native English speaker. This is just my personal opinion on the future of the value of bitcoins, which, of course, can be wrong.

[links-pyramining]

Bitcoin value will increase only if people will use them more and more! I believe in this like anyone who trusts bitcoins. I think that just before and after btc/block goes to 25 BTC value will increase a bit as a consequence of increased interest in bitcoins.

[Lethn]

I'm waiting for 47 days to see what will happen next with Obama's negotiations with the Republicans before I make any sort of prediction on the value of Bitcoin, my guess is that will make a dramatic difference in how fast and how much Bitcoin will rise because everyone will be running for the hills with their wealth.

[AndrewBUD]

95 Canadian pennies per by the year 2014

[organofcorti]

95 Canadian pennies per by the year 2014

Is that a comment on the strength of the Canadian dollar or future weakness of bitcoin?

[AndrewBUD]

a little bit from column A and a little from colomn b