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Author Topic: Bitcoin gonna burst?  (Read 11196 times)
piuk
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June 06, 2011, 01:09:47 PM
 #21

Today more than $1M will be exchanged in mtgox. And miners don't sell every bitcoin they earn. I actually think a bitcoin's real value is about $22 right now.

$1M is an impressive volume, but it doesn't give an indication of how much new money is coming into the system. The fact the bitcoin economy doesn't have a manufacturing or service industry means at some point people are going to have to exchange them back into USD. If miners aren't selling them now, but expecting to sell them in the future, they are just contributing to the bubble.

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nrd525
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June 06, 2011, 04:39:12 PM
 #22

Possible ways to burst a bitcoin bubble include:
1) Government intervention.  Shutdown of MtGox and a general crackdown on any website using bitcoin.

2) Big players start a sell-off. 

3) A better currency emerges.  Bitcoin is an upstart (and most internet startups get superseded by better ones or fail). If the client is open source then someone can easily modify the code and create another currency, right?  Given the amazing level of software and website development around Bitcoin I'm surprised that this hasn't happened already.   There is a fixed supply of Bitcoin, but the potential supply of Bitcoin alternatives is unlimited.

The sell-off will be aggravated by the fact that most people using Bitcoin to buy/sell goods are also speculators - so the whole bitcoin economy will be affected.

The fact that a lot of people think there is a bubble, but that they'll be smart enough to sell before it happens (or that it is a year or more off) is a sign that the bubble is strong and will burst soon.

Don't day trade.
Findeton
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June 06, 2011, 04:57:06 PM
 #23

The fact that a lot of people think there is a bubble, but that they'll be smart enough to sell before it happens (or that it is a year or more off) is a sign that the bubble is strong and will burst soon.

Maybe, maybe not. In the end a bitcoin will be worth what people think a bitcoin is worth. Mining though, will still be profitable.

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piuk
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June 06, 2011, 06:22:12 PM
 #24

4) In a few weeks time, when the media have had their fill, price begins to level out. People who are in it for a quick buck realise this isn't a going to make them rich over night and sell. Less buyers due to less publicity, snowball etc etc

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June 06, 2011, 07:02:46 PM
 #25

4) In a few weeks time, when the media have had their fill, price begins to level out. People who are in it for a quick buck realise this isn't a going to make them rich over night and sell. Less buyers due to less publicity, snowball etc etc

We could surpass the 20$/btc barrier rather soon. Anyway, I really hope to see bitcoin fall so I can buy some more. My target is no to earn dollars, but to collect bitcoins.

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CravenEconomics
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June 06, 2011, 07:38:24 PM
 #26

4) In a few weeks time, when the media have had their fill, price begins to level out. People who are in it for a quick buck realise this isn't a going to make them rich over night and sell. Less buyers due to less publicity, snowball etc etc

We could surpass the 20$/btc barrier rather soon. Anyway, I really hope to see bitcoin fall so I can buy some more. My target is no to earn dollars, but to collect bitcoins.

Same here, I'd much prefer the use of bitcoins as a currency and not for speculation

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stic.man
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June 06, 2011, 07:40:12 PM
 #27

i'd rather be using bitcents or smaller denominations for everyday spending haha
WilliamJohnson
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June 06, 2011, 08:44:41 PM
 #28

Why couldn't Bitcoin be used for legit business, too?

And, as for the Ponzi scheme, I'd suggest you read this thread: http://forum.bitcoin.org/?topic=7815.0
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June 06, 2011, 10:14:21 PM
 #29

Please cn speculators and those who dont cre about the moral success of bitcoin please be quiet, yes profits are great and make us happy but the real exercise of bitcoin is to create an decentralised currency and those who are uneducated about this must learn this! Read about how bitcoin could have helped the wikileaks scandal or help those in oppressed areas suc as china or korea!

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Findeton
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June 07, 2011, 10:46:57 AM
 #30

Please cn speculators and those who dont cre about the moral success of bitcoin please be quiet, yes profits are great
The "moral success" of creating wealthy superpowers while the rest of the world scrounges for coppers?

You are talking about the dollar, right?

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Babylon
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June 07, 2011, 04:23:17 PM
 #31

So far the pattern has been huge rally, partial decline, huge rally, partial decline, etc. During the rallies people say $1000 by year's end, and during the declines people wonder if it will collapse. Personally, I don't forecast a collapse since I can't possibly imagine everyone suddenly losing interest in Bitcoin simultaneously for no reason. Minor pullbacks, however, will always happen.

I expect this to continue.  The hugeness of the rallies has kind of shocked me, and I do expect them to slow down a bit, but I think Bitcoin will hit natural equilibrium at about $100 per bitcoin and at that point will only fluctuate slightly, plus adjust due to dollar inflation.

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June 07, 2011, 06:11:39 PM
 #32

So far the pattern has been huge rally, partial decline, huge rally, partial decline, etc. During the rallies people say $1000 by year's end, and during the declines people wonder if it will collapse. Personally, I don't forecast a collapse since I can't possibly imagine everyone suddenly losing interest in Bitcoin simultaneously for no reason. Minor pullbacks, however, will always happen.

I expect this to continue.  The hugeness of the rallies has kind of shocked me, and I do expect them to slow down a bit, but I think Bitcoin will hit natural equilibrium at about $100 per bitcoin and at that point will only fluctuate slightly, plus adjust due to dollar inflation.

The math are simple, if more people use bitcoin, $/btc rate will rise like steam. $100/btc is not a natural equilibrium anymore than $0.01/btc.

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Babylon
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June 07, 2011, 06:39:25 PM
 #33

So far the pattern has been huge rally, partial decline, huge rally, partial decline, etc. During the rallies people say $1000 by year's end, and during the declines people wonder if it will collapse. Personally, I don't forecast a collapse since I can't possibly imagine everyone suddenly losing interest in Bitcoin simultaneously for no reason. Minor pullbacks, however, will always happen.

I expect this to continue.  The hugeness of the rallies has kind of shocked me, and I do expect them to slow down a bit, but I think Bitcoin will hit natural equilibrium at about $100 per bitcoin and at that point will only fluctuate slightly, plus adjust due to dollar inflation.

The math are simple, if more people use bitcoin, $/btc rate will rise like steam. $100/btc is not a natural equilibrium anymore than $0.01/btc.

I think that the figures that people are coming up with for the size of the bitcoin economy are unrealistic and that it is likely to stabilize at approx $100/BTC  Just my opinion of course, based on a not terribly exhaustive knowledge of economics.

piuk
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June 07, 2011, 06:58:56 PM
 #34

if more people use bitcoin, $/btc rate will rise like steam.

Doesn't steam eventual cool and fall? Smiley

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June 07, 2011, 10:07:10 PM
 #35

I think governments will try to shut it down before the bitcoin bubble can burst.

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nrd525
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June 08, 2011, 04:19:41 AM
 #36

Bitcoin volume (US dollars, MTGox) for the past 12 hours = 1.3 million

For the past YEAR: 13.96 million

Almost 10% of the volume (of course in US dollars), has been in the past 12 hours.  The bubble is nearing its peak.

Don't day trade.
imperi
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June 08, 2011, 04:21:29 AM
 #37

Hasn't the bubble been "nearing its peak" since it reached parity with the dollar?
Karmicads
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June 08, 2011, 04:22:54 AM
 #38

if more people use bitcoin, $/btc rate will rise like steam.

Doesn't steam eventual cool and fall? Smiley

This is magic steam. Tongue

Edit: I should have also said 'The cooler bitcoin gets the faster it rises'.
Kid81
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June 08, 2011, 04:25:31 AM
 #39

how can you compare BTC to anything? There has never been anything like it
tunatime
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June 08, 2011, 04:35:34 AM
 #40

Bitcoin volume (US dollars, MTGox) for the past 12 hours = 1.3 million

For the past YEAR: 13.96 million

Almost 10% of the volume (of course in US dollars), has been in the past 12 hours.  The bubble is nearing its peak.

if people keep buying them then they wont be a bubble. And least say tomorrow some whit whit a hell of a lot of coins sells them all and coins droop to a few$ a coin you woudl have a hell of a lot of people buying them up and the price will go back. now if every one stops buying them then yes there will be a bubble and lest say that it stays at 1usd a coin but big stores start taking them driving prices back up. the only way there can be a bubble is some one can start making fake coins, the gov or some one whit a hell of a lot of power steps in, or people  just lose trust in the bitcoin. what will happen is that the price will stabilize someplace a lot of people sell out the price falls then ether stays that way or climbs back up as more buy them up hooping to get rich like the first batch of people did.
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