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Author Topic: Bitcoin gonna burst?  (Read 11201 times)
piuk
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June 08, 2011, 06:57:25 PM
 #41

Order book not looking very healthy.


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The Koolio
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June 08, 2011, 07:05:41 PM
 #42

Order book not looking very healthy.



a bit of a downward motion is expected as we've had a sharp rally today... im sure over  the next week or two itll average upwards

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TurboK
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June 08, 2011, 07:06:33 PM
 #43

It went down from 31.5 to 27 now.

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imperi
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June 08, 2011, 07:08:34 PM
 #44

It's popping!! Sell everything! Delete your wallets!!
The Koolio
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June 08, 2011, 07:15:57 PM
 #45

It's popping!! Sell everything! Delete your wallets!!

Thats not a bubble, thats impatient fools getting rid of coins cause they are scared! There was a rally which needs levelling out... expected... all is good

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The Koolio
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June 08, 2011, 07:23:19 PM
 #46

so much for bursting its back up to $33. Untill the influx of new buyers stops there will always be people ready to pick up the scraps for cheap. Whoever brought now just made an extra $5 per coin

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imperi
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June 08, 2011, 07:25:42 PM
 #47

You're delusional... the bubble has popped... it is accelerating downwards and will reach -10 BTC per dollar by Saturday.
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June 08, 2011, 07:30:09 PM
 #48

You're delusional... the bubble has popped... it is accelerating downwards and will reach -10 BTC per dollar by Saturday.

Actually, it's just crashing upwards.

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June 08, 2011, 09:30:32 PM
 #49

I wouldn't say the drop from 31.8 to 22.9 is a popped bubble. Due to the enormous increase earlier, it would be normal for it to drop down a bit, but it will make another sharp rise again shortly.

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June 08, 2011, 09:54:04 PM
 #50

I wouldn't say the drop from 31.8 to 22.9 is a popped bubble. Due to the enormous increase earlier, it would be normal for it to drop down a bit, but it will make another sharp rise again shortly.

my thoughts exactly

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June 17, 2011, 03:40:59 PM
 #51

Talking of bubbles...



I suggest that we are in Stealth Phase right now, not even approaching the take off point yet.

Bitcoin indeed is going to burst... but not just yet... we will be in 7 digit territory by than...

Whoever is buying now clearing all the asks up to 100$ perhaps is SMART MONEY . Institutional investors have not even heard or seriously considered bitcoin.

When first bitcoin ETF comes online we will be around Enthusiasm and maybe Greed phase.



Here is a chart I made today at bitcoincharts.com that I felt the need to share.

A more pessimistic comparison of your bubble graph to the 2011-04-22 to 2011-06-17 Bitcoin graph might be that we are entering the "fear" portion of the "Blow off Phase". It may be that the current Bitcoin price fluctuations become speed bumps towards your "7 digit territory" prediction, but it may also be that the striking similarities between the two graphs is telling us something.
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June 17, 2011, 04:35:31 PM
 #52

That chart is scary similar. I think that is exactly what happened with the bitcoin, the reason it happened so fast is because it is all digital and the bitcoin has no substance to it really.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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June 17, 2011, 04:37:14 PM
 #53

kwh, solid graph.

I will be looking to buy once it dips back down below $10/coin, since it is pretty easy to eyeball your chart and see the linear price should be $10/coin.

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CravenEconomics
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Happy deflation!


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June 18, 2011, 03:29:22 AM
 #54

kwh, solid graph.

I will be looking to buy once it dips back down below $10/coin, since it is pretty easy to eyeball your chart and see the linear price should be $10/coin.

I think this graph comparison may be the most simplified understanding of what is going on...even with the information given.

And this conclusion which has been drawn from it seems ridiculous!

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June 18, 2011, 03:53:50 AM
 #55

... So many of them now, are all hearing about bitcoin for the first time and they only need to be buying $100 or less worth of BTC to play with for micro transaction and the price will continue to rise.

Micro transactions to pay for what exactly? So far bitcoin has been used for: drugs, cheap way to make money (mining, which is dying soon), and speculation.  Not even that restaurant in NYC that started accepting bitcoins has conducted a single transaction using bitcoins (as of 6/17/2011). The only reason it will stay alive is for Silk Road, and even that use is now dubious due to the fact that you have to be tech savvy and go way out of your way to use it and still be anonymous. I like bitcoin as a decentralized currency, but not as a tool for drug and smut peddlers.

If anyone really wants to see bitcoin succeed they need to put efforts into enacting more trade using bitcoins. Mining doesn't help the bitcoin world because even if there were only 3 guys doing CPU mining, the difficulty would adjust so they could produce all the bitcoins at the same rate they are being produced today (with the most power aggregate super computer in the world).
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June 18, 2011, 04:49:06 AM
 #56

... So many of them now, are all hearing about bitcoin for the first time and they only need to be buying $100 or less worth of BTC to play with for micro transaction and the price will continue to rise.

Micro transactions to pay for what exactly? So far bitcoin has been used for: drugs, cheap way to make money (mining, which is dying soon), and speculation.  Not even that restaurant in NYC that started accepting bitcoins has conducted a single transaction using bitcoins (as of 6/17/2011). The only reason it will stay alive is for Silk Road, and even that use is now dubious due to the fact that you have to be tech savvy and go way out of your way to use it and still be anonymous. I like bitcoin as a decentralized currency, but not as a tool for drug and smut peddlers.

If anyone really wants to see bitcoin succeed they need to put efforts into enacting more trade using bitcoins. Mining doesn't help the bitcoin world because even if there were only 3 guys doing CPU mining, the difficulty would adjust so they could produce all the bitcoins at the same rate they are being produced today (with the most power aggregate super computer in the world).

I've sold tarot card readings for bitcoins.

CravenEconomics
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Happy deflation!


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June 18, 2011, 05:28:12 AM
 #57

I've sold father's day presents, external hard drives, coupons to a restaurant in Iceland, cash, and more...all for bitcoins

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June 18, 2011, 10:33:53 AM
 #58

This thread is beautiful. It should be read in economics class by schoolchildren to understand bubble dynamics.

I especially love the denial phase as soon as an upwards spike happened. It's EXACTLY as the economists say. Doubts are drowned by one over-riding fact: the price is still rising. As long as the price shows a higher number, people are satisfied. Even though everybody should know it crumbles the moment the stream of new money stops, they all just take that risk.

No matter what happens from now on, the chaos and drop were unavoidable after the spike to 30, and there were people who knew that. But everybody ignored them until it was too late! It was just unreasonable to rise that fast, even with the exponential media attention.

I hope this will teach Bitcoiners a lesson; we don't want this to happen again. It's a crazy kind of game that disrupts normal trading. At least keep the price roughly close to actual trading market size.



Edit: Oh wow, I just saw the link to the bubble article, including the quote "The voices of the wise are ignored by the greedy who justify the now insane prices with the euphoric claim that the world has fundamentally changed and this new world means higher prices."

And someone answered "You have to go way outside the box to find economic analysis of the monetisation of a newly discovered form of commodity currency.". And another "how can you compare BTC to anything? There has never been anything like it"

Priceless. Pun intended.
neptop
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June 18, 2011, 11:22:13 AM
 #59

The second chart shows one month. What happens after the burst? The dotCOM stuff makes me think of Facebook ant Twitter. Especially Twitter has lots of investors. Does this mean it repeats over and over after the burst? Then it'd be a good idea to wait until the next bubble emerges.

Also couldn't we be at some point after 1980?

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June 18, 2011, 12:00:25 PM
 #60

Does this mean it repeats over and over after the burst? Then it'd be a good idea to wait until the next bubble emerges.
That's the interesting question. Bitcoin is still small; it could cancel out of the crash and form an even larger bubble.

I hope people will hurry up with the spikes so I get a clearer view. What's with those low-volume phases... seller staring contest.

If it continues onto a rising trend again, it will become a battle of speculators. I can't imagine it would end well for everyone; but the best might make a nice profit -- and the early adopters that didn't sell yet most of all. But I can see it doing a classical crash just as well. Gotta figure out what the buying folk is thinking right now -- that's the most important question.
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