Your numbers are incredibly optimistic, IMO.
The current network conditions are 50BTC/block at a difficulty of around 3 Million. This is expected to dramatically change the day BFL starts shipment of ASIC Miners, experts have estimated 25BTC/block within 1-2 weeks and an instant change in difficulty of 12-15M. Experts have estimated a difficulty of 30 Million within 1 year. To try to be fair, we made estimations based on 25BTC per block after 1 week with a difficulty of 30 Million (more than 2x the estimates), our numbers also project difficulty changes throughout the year up to 50 Million (20M Higher than the highest estimates). Also, we have started the numbers based on HALF of the hashing power for the initial order due to the way BFL will be shipping the first miners, just in the small chance we only receive one of each item rather than the full order.
A few points:
1) The block reward halving is less than two weeks from now, and no one will have their ASICs by then.
2) It's very likely that difficulty will be ~30-35M by early January, that's not a conservative estimate. Remember you have
- bASIC: ~900 units @ 54GH/s = 48TH/s; est. shipping early Dec.
- Avalon: ~600 units @ 66GH/s = 40TH/s; est. shipping Jan 14
- Block Erupter: 12TH/s; unknown date (probably Dec?)
- BFL: First batch of chips 150TH/s; most probably shipping Dec
3) Difficulty of 50M one year from now is very unlikely. ROI with $11/BTC and constant 50M difficulty is still under 7 months. I'm personally predicting 50M difficulty (~460TH/s) by the start of March.
4) BFL is on the record that they have two more >20k chip batches coming.
We have a second order coming within ~1 week of our first order and a third order hot on the heels of that. We will be drowning in chips before all is said and done.
:shock: Are the two following orders also 20k chips each?
I can't say exactly how many, but it's more than that.
The also have 200 Minirig SC power supplies sitting in their warehouse. That's at least 450TH/s worth of chips and enough PSUs for 300TH/s just from Minirigs.
No offense intended, I like the idea of equity based mining companies, but estimating US$823 return on a 1BTC investment is Pirate level rates and is unrealistic.
