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Author Topic: Introducing PevPot.com The Bitcoin Lottery  (Read 11799 times)
RHavar
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November 18, 2015, 03:52:59 PM
 #101

Option a) could be, I just hope it won't make it more confusing? (making it as simple as possible is the best point of the lottery.) Does it also mean that your "commission" is 0% at start and 50% at end? (not that I really care about that, just wondering.)

Or I could just transfer the extra money to the next rounds sponsorship. The main point would be that the +EV hunters would want to bet early in the round, which then would make the pot size attractive for casual betters who just want a chance of winning $LARGE_POT

But the disadvantage is, as you say, complexity Sad

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November 18, 2015, 04:22:21 PM
 #102

And I will shortly make the payment of 23.87646599 BTC to cowbay after my last script for verification has finished running (or Dooglus' python one).

For the record:

Code:
>>> time.ctime(time.time()); pbkdf2.PBKDF2('000000000000000009b7fb236187f120a0c86eb8785f099a8d197dd34b9d2553', 'pevpot', 5000000000, hashlib.sha256, hmac).hexread(32); time.ctime(time.time())
'Tue Nov 17 01:50:44 2015'
'6e466cdd13cc80b1137addf46362bbe3714fc9bf7faef9aba930554d3e080ba5'
'Tue Nov 17 23:44:24 2015'

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dooglus
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November 18, 2015, 05:25:46 PM
 #103

I think that boosting JD's sponsorship on pevpot is the least I can do - please sponsor some draws with this https://blockchain.info/tx-index/bed2c062bd9fff2b453cb76189ad024e47fea29d0deb5134039a6ba7a5603313.

Thanks very much! I wasn't expecting to see any of that back again.

I'll use it to fund JD ads over the coming weeks.

So one thing I've been thinking about, is how to incentivize people to play at the start of the draw (as opposed the last couple of blocks).

One ideas I've had:

a) The winner gets the total amount sent to the lotto, plus X of the sponsored amount. X is dependent on the block you buy your lottery tickets, and starts off at 100% and trends towards 50% by the end of the draw? So the earlier your buy in, the higher +EV it is  (but the less known the EV) is. The later you play, the lower the EV is but the more known it is. (But regardless of when you play, it's still +EV)

b) The winner is paid 50% in BTC and 50% in next-draws lottery tickets. This would make the pot start with a nice healthy amount right from the start, hopefully attracting more players. Players would be eligible to win multiple times in a row of course. (Although it seems a little shitty to me, to pay lottery winners in lottery tickets)


Or maybe I'm over thinking it, and last-minute play isn't a problem? I just have this impression that the bigger the pot, the more attractive it is for most lottery-ticket buyers to participate.

What are your thoughts?

I agree that it's best to encourage people to play early, to grow the pot early, to make it more attractive for others.

I don't think it's OK to pay lottery winnings in lottery tickets.

I like the first idea. I think you should take your 10% off the top first, and split the remaining 90% like you stated, with the left over sponsorship money (0% to 50% of the remaining 90%) going into next week's sponsorship pot.

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RHavar
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November 19, 2015, 09:10:14 PM
 #104

^ Good idea, thanks. I've talked to a few people and this is how it'll work for draw #3

STARTING FROM NEXT DRAW (#3)

10% of sponsorship money goes to me (commission), and the remaining 90% goes to the: "Early bird bonus pool".

When someone wins the lotto, we get the block-height of their transaction and figure out:

Code:
(1000 - BLOCKS_SINCE_STARTING)/1000

You get this fraction of "Early bird bonus pool". What ever is left over, will be carried to the next months early bird bonus pool.


(Or in short: You'll be rewarded more for buying tickets early)


[Note: the 10% comission is only charged on sponsorship money, not players tickets. So you always win at least the sum of all lottery tickets)

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ComboChris
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November 19, 2015, 09:22:32 PM
 #105

lol @ the fact that you put a donald trump quote on the bottom of the site.
Love the idea in general though, seems innovative.
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November 19, 2015, 09:36:42 PM
 #106

When someone wins the lotto, we get the block-height of their transaction and figure out:

Code:
(1000 - BLOCKS_SINCE_STARTING)/1000

You get this fraction of "Early bird bonus pool". What ever is left over, will be carried to the next months early bird bonus pool.

Just to be clear, this scales the sponsorship from 100% down to 0% over the 1000 blocks, instead of the 100% -> 50% you originally proposed.

Is that what you intended?

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RHavar
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November 19, 2015, 09:43:37 PM
 #107

lol @ the fact that you put a donald trump quote on the bottom of the site.

It was a close toss up between that and George Bernard Shaw's "The many must lose in order that the few may win"


Just to be clear, this scales the sponsorship from 100% down to 0% over the 1000 blocks, instead of the 100% -> 50% you originally proposed.

Is that what you intended?

Yup, although it has the undesirable aspect of the final block being EV0.  I think it's worthwhile though, as from talking to people it seems the appeal of a large-pot is much more than the appeal of a small amount of EV (when the probability of winning is so low). I've talked to a few people who have said that the pot as it is just too small to get excited about.  So by scaling it harder, it should mean the +EV hunters will want to bet much earlier, filling the pot up for the more recreational players. =)

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November 20, 2015, 05:14:52 PM
 #108

In theory it sounds good and I hope it will be good.

Alternative result: the "EV+ betters" find it too risky to bet at start and it's not EV+ anymore to bet in the end > resulting in an "even" lower prize.

But let's hope it works out Tongue

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November 20, 2015, 06:37:32 PM
 #109

https://www.pevpot.com/verify

I've made an in-browser verification tool!  It has the benefit of using completely different libraries, and data source than I actually use. So it's a nice way to cross-check the results.



(Technical note: Step 1 of the verification tool is a little fragile, because it uses the bitpay insight API to get transactions, but the API doesn't say the block-height of the transaction, but how many confirmations it has. So I get the current block-height, and subtract from it. But if there's a block confirmation during the fetching step, it could give wrong results. I plan to switch to blockcypher API when they fix missing-data bug that they confirmed exists)

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chaoman
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November 20, 2015, 08:52:29 PM
 #110

If I specify my lotto payout address will it pay automatically without me having to sign? Also, can I mine into my personal lotto address?
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November 20, 2015, 08:56:52 PM
 #111

https://www.pevpot.com/verify

I've made an in-browser verification tool!  It has the benefit of using completely different libraries, and data source than I actually use.

Typo: "Strech the block hash"

Also, the block hash isn't automatically filled in in the stretching tool, even after I have fetched it. I have to copy/paste it, which seems like a step that could be automated.

And it would be nice if there was some kind of progress indicator while stretching, so I know how far through it is.

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November 20, 2015, 10:25:32 PM
 #112

If I specify my lotto payout address will it pay automatically without me having to sign? Also, can I mine into my personal lotto address?

Correct, and yes

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November 20, 2015, 10:34:08 PM
 #113

Typo: "Strech the block hash"

Thanks Cheesy

Quote
Also, the block hash isn't automatically filled in in the stretching tool, even after I have fetched it. I have to copy/paste it, which seems like a step that could be automated.

That's kind of intentional, as I was planning on adding a "Do everything" button.

Quote
And it would be nice if there was some kind of progress indicator while stretching, so I know how far through it is.

Agreed, although that would require me to modify the PBKDF2 function to expose some progress events, which makes it more difficult to people to see I'm using an unmodified/fair library

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November 20, 2015, 10:54:21 PM
 #114

Also, can I mine into my personal lotto address?

BTW if you pay with the coinbase from a fresh block, it should work but won't be pretty. The earliest that coinbase coins can be moved is after 100 blocks (due to coinbase restrictions), but my code won't handle it perfectly. My code is unaware of this bitcoin restriction will actually fail to send it, and start doing an exponential back off, so by the time it sends it to the lotto address will be likely hours after the 100 block restriction expires. If you're planning on mining direct into a forwarding address, let me know and I'll better support the whole thing.

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dooglus
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November 20, 2015, 11:35:25 PM
 #115

Also, can I mine into my personal lotto address?

BTW if you pay with the coinbase from a fresh block, it should work but won't be pretty. The earliest that coinbase coins can be moved is after 100 blocks (due to coinbase restrictions), but my code won't handle it perfectly. My code is unaware of this bitcoin restriction will actually fail to send it, and start doing an exponential back off, so by the time it sends it to the lotto address will be likely hours after the 100 block restriction expires. If you're planning on mining direct into a forwarding address, let me know and I'll better support the whole thing.

I guess he isn't really mining to the address, but withdrawing from a mining pool to that address, in which case it would work fine anyway.

But maybe he's using p2pool or something that actually pays out coinbase coins.

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November 23, 2015, 05:10:05 PM
 #116

Only 6 blocks to go! Get your tickets in!


And remember, STARTING FROM NEXT DRAW (#3)

10% of sponsorship money goes to me (commission), and the remaining 90% goes to the: "Early bird bonus pool".

When someone wins the lotto, we get the block-height of their transaction and figure out:

Code:
(1000 - BLOCKS_SINCE_STARTING)/1000

You get this fraction of "Early bird bonus pool". What ever is left over, will be carried to the next months early bird bonus pool.


(Or in short: You'll be rewarded more for buying tickets early)


[Note: the 10% commission is only charged on sponsorship money, not players tickets. So you always win at least the sum of all lottery tickets)

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November 23, 2015, 05:20:22 PM
 #117


Just want to make sure I get it right: If I want to get all 90% of the sponsorship in draw 3, my bet transaction has to be confirmed in 385001 but not 385000 (in which my bet will go to draw 2), right?

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November 23, 2015, 05:56:08 PM
 #118


Just want to make sure I get it right: If I want to get all 90% of the sponsorship in draw 3, my bet transaction has to be confirmed in 385001 but not 385000 (in which my bet will go to draw 2), right?

Yup. If you hit 385000 you'll be draw #2.  (where you'll also get 90% of the sponsorship of draw #2). But if it lands on 385001 you'll qualify for 90% of the sponsorship of draw #3

I take it this: https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/tx/fe0950ba460a14466b2d7fa928c7fba856e502f3eebfd5ad94996c0ee08ad860?txoutIdx=0  is yours?  (cutting it close, I must say)


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November 23, 2015, 06:03:06 PM
 #119


Just want to make sure I get it right: If I want to get all 90% of the sponsorship in draw 3, my bet transaction has to be confirmed in 385001 but not 385000 (in which my bet will go to draw 2), right?

Yup. If you hit 385000 you'll be in the previous draw.

I take it this: https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/tx/fe0950ba460a14466b2d7fa928c7fba856e502f3eebfd5ad94996c0ee08ad860?txoutIdx=0  is yours?  (cutting it close, lets see if it makes it in)

Okay, thanks for the confirmation.

Nope that bet is not mine. I wish I am rich enough to be able to casually spend 10 btc on a bet like that lol.

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November 23, 2015, 07:53:48 PM
 #120

Hi,

when will be the results published?

Also, can you explain the "Early bird bonus pool" a little bit more? Is this something new?
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