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Author Topic: big BTC players continue accumulation and barely ever sell.  (Read 1680 times)
jasonjm
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November 11, 2015, 06:32:21 AM
 #1

if you watch the biggest wallets, those over 1000 coins, who hold almost 50% of all BTC, you know how many they sold in the move from $500 to $300? guess?

28000 coins out of around 7 million. And I bet when the dust settles they will have even more coins than before this sell off.

so.... who do you think is running around like chicken little panic buying and panic selling? it is not the big boys.

big players are doing hold and / or accumulate, and have been for years now, that made my decision to get back into BTC.

Wait until ETF and halving occur, there will be less and less coins around to pump and dump.


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November 11, 2015, 06:41:52 AM
 #2

Yes, very rational observation. The current price action is reflective on only a tiny fraction of what is likely the same coins being traded around by speculators on exchange. The rest of the coins are slowly but surely being accumulated.

In this context I am reminded of this passage from one of Mircea Popescu's blog post :

Quote
On the Bitcoin supply side, conversely, things look quite grim. Up until recently Bitcoins were generated via mining at the rate of about three million a year. Starting with the current year mining rewards halved, which means yearly Bitcoin generation is 1.3mn tops. Out of this, a fraction between a third and a half will have to be sold to pay operational costs of the miners - so about 600`000 Bitcoins are meeting the market this year (although part of them are possibly meeting the market straight in the pockets of their owners, who bought mining gear in the first place to acquire Bitcoins, so they've paid for the rigs and electricity in fiat, are registering the tax-deductible loss thereof and keeping the Bitcoin).

Other than this ~4% of the Bitcoin monetary mass, there may be as much as maybe 10ish% that is looking for dollars for whatever reasons. Then again, that 10ish% could be as low as 1%.

Now let's remodel : what happens when a 300% increase on the supply side meets a 5% increase in the demand side ? There's pretty much literally nothing those extra dollars nobody wants can do to increase the Bitcoin supply. It's very, very inelastic, and consequently the only stability point is when equilibrium is reached. Two billion dollars divided by 600`000 Bitcoins comes to three thousand dollars and change per Bitcoin.

Will people stop throwing dollars at Bitcoin because Bitcoin prices in dollars are rising ? No, they will not. If anything the converse is more likely. Will people start throwing Bitcoin at dollars because Bitcoin prices in dollars are rising ? No, they will not. If anything, the converse is more likely.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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November 11, 2015, 07:28:52 AM
 #3

The thing that will probably save it is that demed actually will rise when price rises.

People get greedy and get FOMO. Their only option and thought is to buy. That is just how humans work.

Now price is declining, they are selling like mad men, when the price has risen again, they will be buying.

Losing money, yes, but appearently how humans work.

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November 11, 2015, 07:59:37 AM
 #4

I predict that you'll quit bitcoin again for the same reason   Undecided

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November 11, 2015, 10:15:48 AM
 #5

if you watch the biggest wallets, those over 1000 coins, who hold almost 50% of all BTC, you know how many they sold in the move from $500 to $300? guess?

28000 coins out of around 7 million. And I bet when the dust settles they will have even more coins than before this sell off.

so.... who do you think is running around like chicken little panic buying and panic selling? it is not the big boys.

big players are doing hold and / or accumulate, and have been for years now, that made my decision to get back into BTC.

Wait until ETF and halving occur, there will be less and less coins around to pump and dump.


If true mean that are very courageous. To sell in that price when bitcoin is unpredictable mean no worries even if you lost something of those. And this can be made only by big whalers. So it is not strange to be seen this thing. Me, with my few bitcoins, would have fear to do such things. I may lose all my bitcoins if the price of selling would be the lowest ones. And with bitcoin everything is possible. So, I prefer to not "play" with those like the above guys.
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November 11, 2015, 11:11:08 AM
 #6

so if they are not willing to sell even a penny, how the price will increase in the future, are they forcing demand to increase to high level before selling?

i doubt average joe care about this, they will not buy bitcoin at 1k before the market say that the value is 1k or more....

i'm interested to know how many coins are actually being traded at any moment, i smell a very few amount, this in theory should lead to a value increase in the future, but i'm not so sure about it anymore


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November 11, 2015, 11:23:47 AM
 #7

if you watch the biggest wallets, those over 1000 coins, who hold almost 50% of all BTC, you know how many they sold in the move from $500 to $300? guess?

28000 coins out of around 7 million. And I bet when the dust settles they will have even more coins than before this sell off.


Are you sure this is right?
Are you comparing those with 1000+coins at time A (when price was 500) with those with 1000+ coins at time B (when price was 300)?
But these may not be the same group of individuals.
Someone who has 1050 coins at time A, then 950 coins at time B, would not be included in the latter. The reverse is also true.
So there could be a lot more selling by big players than you think.
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November 11, 2015, 12:16:39 PM
 #8

if you watch the biggest wallets, those over 1000 coins, who hold almost 50% of all BTC, you know how many they sold in the move from $500 to $300? guess?

28000 coins out of around 7 million. And I bet when the dust settles they will have even more coins than before this sell off.

so.... who do you think is running around like chicken little panic buying and panic selling? it is not the big boys.

big players are doing hold and / or accumulate, and have been for years now, that made my decision to get back into BTC.

Wait until ETF and halving occur, there will be less and less coins around to pump and dump.



People are holding out for way bigger prices, imagine trying to move 1000 coins to an exchange to rebuy for $100 less a coin or something, i wouldn't fancy it, way too much risk.
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November 11, 2015, 01:19:16 PM
 #9

This is why we have large price swings.  Liquidity is too thin.  The rich keep accumulating as long as possible.  You think the big boys are going to let a bunch of young tech nerds get rich off holding a few coins?  You must keep accumulating up until the halving.  Then reevaluate your stance based on price, market sentiment, and news.
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November 11, 2015, 01:37:03 PM
 #10

The biggest sell-off that we had up to $160 in January - February was the same case. None of the biggest wallets haven't sold any bitcoins. So that means that people that were panicking were just a small fish.

I remember there was even an article about this in Cointelegraph it seems to me. So this is a pretty common case. Who has the most money doesn't worry that much about it I guess.
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November 11, 2015, 03:05:56 PM
 #11

The biggest sell-off that we had up to $160 in January - February was the same case. None of the biggest wallets haven't sold any bitcoins. So that means that people that were panicking were just a small fish.

I remember there was even an article about this in Cointelegraph it seems to me. So this is a pretty common case. Who has the most money doesn't worry that much about it I guess.

Happenings like that show me that many people seem to be over invested in Bitcoin.Otherwise I see no reason why they always panic selling. Someone who is rich and investing 1 million dollar will not care that much because he can afford it.
But someone with an average income and maybe buying Bitcoin for 1k should also be able to afford it. So this shows me that rich or not there are always a few more guys who might have taken more risk and money, might be because of hope and greed, than they should had. This results in bearish times in crazy panic selling and therefore price declining and in bullish times in crazy price explosions because of panic buying.

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November 11, 2015, 03:22:56 PM
 #12

The biggest sell-off that we had up to $160 in January - February was the same case. None of the biggest wallets haven't sold any bitcoins. So that means that people that were panicking were just a small fish.

I remember there was even an article about this in Cointelegraph it seems to me. So this is a pretty common case. Who has the most money doesn't worry that much about it I guess.

Happenings like that show me that many people seem to be over invested in Bitcoin.Otherwise I see no reason why they always panic selling. Someone who is rich and investing 1 million dollar will not care that much because he can afford it.
But someone with an average income and maybe buying Bitcoin for 1k should also be able to afford it. So this shows me that rich or not there are always a few more guys who might have taken more risk and money, might be because of hope and greed, than they should had. This results in bearish times in crazy panic selling and therefore price declining and in bullish times in crazy price explosions because of panic buying.

You know this is one of the most logical practical explanations I've heard for these wild price swings. Very good point bro.

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November 11, 2015, 06:04:24 PM
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The biggest sell-off that we had up to $160 in January - February was the same case. None of the biggest wallets haven't sold any bitcoins. So that means that people that were panicking were just a small fish.

I remember there was even an article about this in Cointelegraph it seems to me. So this is a pretty common case. Who has the most money doesn't worry that much about it I guess.

Happenings like that show me that many people seem to be over invested in Bitcoin.Otherwise I see no reason why they always panic selling. Someone who is rich and investing 1 million dollar will not care that much because he can afford it.
But someone with an average income and maybe buying Bitcoin for 1k should also be able to afford it. So this shows me that rich or not there are always a few more guys who might have taken more risk and money, might be because of hope and greed, than they should had. This results in bearish times in crazy panic selling and therefore price declining and in bullish times in crazy price explosions because of panic buying.


Anecdotally, I'd say you're probably right.  Just reading forum posts from random participants, it does seem like quite a few people have invested large portions of their income/holdings in what is a purely speculative play with tons of price volatility.

There are lots of ways to play it. A person can do well buying low and selling high.  Some people (not me) can probably do well trading based on technical indicators.  A person can do well HODLing, probably, for the long term.  

But where people get into trouble is when their strategy isn't well-formed and consistent.  They buy, probably OVERbuy, intending to HODL.  Then they see the price go down, sometimes whooshing down, sometimes trickling down, and then they get nervous looking at (unrealized) losses so they sell.  They've changed from HODLers to panic sellers...buying high, and selling low.  If they hadn't overbought in the first place or if they just realized the nature of a speculative play, they could stay in it.
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November 11, 2015, 06:10:15 PM
 #14

The biggest sell-off that we had up to $160 in January - February was the same case. None of the biggest wallets haven't sold any bitcoins. So that means that people that were panicking were just a small fish.

I remember there was even an article about this in Cointelegraph it seems to me. So this is a pretty common case. Who has the most money doesn't worry that much about it I guess.

Happenings like that show me that many people seem to be over invested in Bitcoin.Otherwise I see no reason why they always panic selling. Someone who is rich and investing 1 million dollar will not care that much because he can afford it.
But someone with an average income and maybe buying Bitcoin for 1k should also be able to afford it. So this shows me that rich or not there are always a few more guys who might have taken more risk and money, might be because of hope and greed, than they should had. This results in bearish times in crazy panic selling and therefore price declining and in bullish times in crazy price explosions because of panic buying.


Anecdotally, I'd say you're probably right.  Just reading forum posts from random participants, it does seem like quite a few people have invested large portions of their income/holdings in what is a purely speculative play with tons of price volatility.

There are lots of ways to play it. A person can do well buying low and selling high.  Some people (not me) can probably do well trading based on technical indicators.  A person can do well HODLing, probably, for the long term.  

But where people get into trouble is when their strategy isn't well-formed and consistent.  They buy, probably OVERbuy, intending to HODL.  Then they see the price go down, sometimes whooshing down, sometimes trickling down, and then they get nervous looking at (unrealized) losses so they sell.  They've changed from HODLers to panic sellers...buying high, and selling low.  If they hadn't overbought in the first place or if they just realized the nature of a speculative play, they could stay in it.

Exactly. At times I've felt a bit overinvested and my emotions nearly got the best of me. When this happens, I don't get why people don't just back off on buying so they end up not as overinvested as opposed to panic selling. You haven't lost money till you cash out at a lower price.

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November 11, 2015, 06:52:17 PM
 #15

I am 100% certain of my math. I have been tracking the largest BTC holders (accounts over 1000 BTC) for 3 years now.

Regarding what if someone moves from 950 coins to 1050 and someone else does vice versa, the net effect is zero. It doesn't matter who the big holders are as long as there are big holders. Only if all big wallets started dumping with no one buying would we see a problem.

And yes, I absolutely 100% believe its the small guys responsible for the price swings. Sure a few bigger traders might get the ball rolling with a few 1000 BTC of buy or sell to start the stampede. But its the panic buying and panic selling of the small guys that absolutely gets the ball rolling up and down. no ways big accounts are panic buying and panic selling. It's the small traders who believe they can outsmart the market, or the people who literally panic as it falls or chase it up with greed that are making these swings happen.

All that will happen in the end is 95% of those who panic buy and panic sell are going to end up doing worse than if they either just sold out of BTC completely, or held BTC with no panicking.

And I quit bitcoin because I believed no ways governments would let it continue. But in fact the opposite seems to be happening, govt seem ok with it. BTC is fine, its getting banned that is not fine. So, here I am again, for the 2nd time around.

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November 11, 2015, 07:15:27 PM
 #16

I am 100% certain of my math. I have been tracking the largest BTC holders (accounts over 1000 BTC) for 3 years now.

Regarding what if someone moves from 950 coins to 1050 and someone else does vice versa, the net effect is zero. It doesn't matter who the big holders are as long as there are big holders. Only if all big wallets started dumping with no one buying would we see a problem.

And yes, I absolutely 100% believe its the small guys responsible for the price swings. Sure a few bigger traders might get the ball rolling with a few 1000 BTC of buy or sell to start the stampede. But its the panic buying and panic selling of the small guys that absolutely gets the ball rolling up and down. no ways big accounts are panic buying and panic selling. It's the small traders who believe they can outsmart the market, or the people who literally panic as it falls or chase it up with greed that are making these swings happen.

All that will happen in the end is 95% of those who panic buy and panic sell are going to end up doing worse than if they either just sold out of BTC completely, or held BTC with no panicking.

And I quit bitcoin because I believed no ways governments would let it continue. But in fact the opposite seems to be happening, govt seem ok with it. BTC is fine, its getting banned that is not fine. So, here I am again, for the 2nd time around.


May I ask what site you are using to track these wallets? Not saying I don't believe you but you've made me curious/interested.

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November 11, 2015, 07:26:33 PM
 #17

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

i hope its a reputable website!


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November 11, 2015, 08:24:30 PM
 #18


Me too! I found this right after I asked you. Lol. I used to look at a different one but they closed it down saying it wasn't accurate :/.

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November 11, 2015, 08:27:48 PM
 #19

bitcoinrichlist?

lol

that one always looked suspicious to me, the data never matched up correctly with the other site


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November 12, 2015, 01:17:45 PM
 #20

bitcoinrichlist?

lol

that one always looked suspicious to me, the data never matched up correctly with the other site



Well I appreciate that I now have a site with better, hopefully real, stats, because of you Smiley.

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