Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed!

[EternalWingsofGod]

So this is shaping up to be the monster diff adjustment period that we've been predicting for the last several jumps.  I wonder if this is just a burn in test for a massive amount of hardware?  In which case we'll see it spike, then drop back down a bit, then gradually increase as the machines make their ways to their new owners.  Or are new facilities being brought online that no one is reporting?

+8 Please and Thanks

It could be part of the difficulty adjustment that we were expecting, those miners from Bitmain took a while to ship and get sent out so some units may be coming online, that and the recent price increases set price stability in this price range so old miners are now being added to the network that were previously left offline. Combine the two factors and the present difficulty increase is not that bad considering the external factors involved.

[1714993068]

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[1714993068]

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[1714993068]

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[notlist3d]

So this is shaping up to be the monster diff adjustment period that we've been predicting for the last several jumps.  I wonder if this is just a burn in test for a massive amount of hardware?  In which case we'll see it spike, then drop back down a bit, then gradually increase as the machines make their ways to their new owners.  Or are new facilities being brought online that no one is reporting?

+8 Please and Thanks

It could be part of the difficulty adjustment that we were expecting, those miners from Bitmain took a while to ship and get sent out so some units may be coming online, that and the recent price increases set price stability in this price range so old miners are now being added to the network that were previously left offline. Combine the two factors and the present difficulty increase is not that bad considering the external factors involved.

Looks like you are getting close to current bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,170,547,721 (+8.08%)
Adjust time:    After 969 Blocks, About 6.2 days
Hashrate(?):    517,570,073 GH/s

It's nice to see the 8... did not think I would say that.  But seeing it go down from 10 is good hopefully we can lose one or two more before change.

[EternalWingsofGod]

It's nice to see the 8... did not think I would say that.  But seeing it go down from 10 is good hopefully we can lose one or two more before change.

I'm hoping for a stubborn block or two before the difficulty adjusts similar to the round a few games back where it literally was won by the skin of its teeth.

[adaseb]

So what happened exactly? Looks like the difficulty is back to normal and might be +5 or so.

Why turn on all that gear and shut it off?

[philipma1957]

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
      
-1.2  =      
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir

+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0 = EternalWingsofGod
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8 = Kexkey

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick
I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked  by ranges of .1

[philipma1957]

okay day 7

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice


we are 1052  made should be  963  i get (+9.24% )
which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+7.94%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,079,644,480 (+7.94%)
Adjust time:   After 961 Blocks, About 6.2 days
Hashrate(?):   515,732,992 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.8 minutes
6 blocks: 55.6 minutes
Updated:   22:40 (2.2 minutes ago)



well if we waited until now to pick   based on the numbers above  we will be 6.5 to 10.5% area.

we have 148 blocks to reach the 1200 cutoff for picks.

and we have  20 picks made in the 6.5 to 10.5 area    there are 20 picks not made in that zone.

In terms of this guessing game  waiting will be the better move next time.  We could have a rollover or maybe not.

In terms of why we got over 10% and drifted down to 8%  if the true number is 9%  it falls inside variance.

I have to wonder  what we are really up against.  Is there 200ph that can be the flick of a switch? no way.

But are there 25th machines by bitfury  maybe  and 400 of them are 10ph and that could use 3 megawatts.

 bitfury is supposed to have a 20megawatt farm.  if they are moving from .5 watt to .25 watts gear   that would be 40ph to 80ph  and that is a 40ph jump.

they did a big upgrade last fall maybe they are doing it again.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,085,350,166 (+7.95%)
Adjust time:    After 960 Blocks, About 6.2 days
Hashrate(?):    518,006,446 GH/s

better! damn you variance!!!

[ezeminer]

So what happened exactly? Looks like the difficulty is back to normal and might be +5 or so.

Why turn on all that gear and shut it off?

To not have such a large change in difficulty. Mine hardcore, grab bitcoins at low difficulty. Turn off miners so that the difficulty doesn't go too high.

Rinse and repeat

[skuser]

So what happened exactly? Looks like the difficulty is back to normal and might be +5 or so.

Why turn on all that gear and shut it off?

To not have such a large change in difficulty. Mine hardcore, grab bitcoins at low difficulty. Turn off miners so that the difficulty doesn't go too high.

Rinse and repeat

This is wrong. I firstly wanted to claim the final number of your bitcoins mined will be allways the same but on the contrary after putting it on paper, you would make LESS with this method.
Case A:
If the network hashrate was 1PH and you added another 1PH at the start of period you would mine 25200 BTC (half of all bitcoins to mine in that period). The period would end twice FASTER eg in 6 days. Than the difficulty would rise 100% up and in that period you'd mine the same amount=25200BTC  but in standard time 12 days. From this period on you'd make the same amount until somebody else added new miners.
So for say 30 days you would mine 25200(6days)+25200(12)+25200(12)=75600 BTC
Case B:
If you turned off miners in the half of first period you would logically mine only half eg 12600BTC in about 3 days and then you'd have to have wait till difficulty change for next 6 days as the hashrate would drop to normal. Then the difficulty would rise only 50% (Why? Because half of blocks was mined 100% faster and next half 0% faster) and in the 2nd period after turning your miners on again you would make 25200BTC (you have half of mining power) in about 9 days (because the difficulty is 50% higher). If you kept the miners on, in the 3rd period the difficulty would rise another 33% to the same level as in case A after 2 periods and you'd keep mining 25200BTC in 12 days period unless something else changed. So in 30 days you would mine 12600(3days+6idle)+25200(9)+25200(12)=63000 BTC.

So by delaying tactics you would lose 17% money. Correct me if I have error somewhere.

Reason for rapid decrease, excluding variance can be shipping huge number of hardware after test burn in or huge drop in BTC price.

[lolxxxx]

-ve 1.2
Hehe i just picked this for you lol ... And this time my luck is on you :p i hope i win this time.

[BTCish]

it will not reach even 5 % i think, my prediction already was 2%, but it might be a little more.

[Last of the V8s]

+6.3 = Last of the V8s

Estimated Next Difficulty:    71,085,201,494 (+7.95%)
Adjust time:    After 928 Blocks, About 6.0 days

we live in hope

[philipma1957]

picks have started
you can pick lower then me if you dare
      
-1.2  =  lolxxx                  looks like I have a visitor!!    
-1.1  =  philipma1957
      
-0.0   =
    
 0.0   =      
 
+2.0 = BTCish  

+3.1 = RichBC
+3.2 = Tupsu
+3.3 = edonkey

+4.0 = mavericklm
+4.1 = Biodom
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = dukeneptun
+4.4
+4.5 = ingiltere

+4.8 = DanDan
+4.9
+5.0 = adaseb

+5.4 = tss
+5.5
+5.6 = vortexz

+5.9 = Mikestang
+6.0
+6.1 = cakir
+6.3 = Last of the V8s
+6.6 = wlefever
+6.7 = DanielRo

+7.0 = pandacoin

+7.4 = notlist3d
+7.5 = wpt1wpt1
+7.6
+7.7 = ezeminer
+7.8
+7.9 = togesix
+8.0 = EternalWingsofGod
+8.1 = zebedee
+8.2 = Amph
+8.3
+8.4 = Questor
+8.5
+8.6 = flikflak
+8.7 = indiemax
+8.8 = Lituation
+8.9= VirosaGITS
+9.0
+9.1= GreatNorthData  you are very welcome.
+9.2 =Zz

+9.6 = jonnybravo0311
+9.7 = d57heinz
+9.8 = Kexkey

+11.2 = SwordsofFreedom

+12.2 = 64dimensions

and  pick up  and over as high as you want to pick
or down as low as you want to pick

I tightened up the list  you can still pick any one not picked  by ranges of .1

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+8.28%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,298,596,219 (+8.28%)
Adjust time:   After 906 Blocks, About 5.8 days
Hashrate(?):   525,519,626 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.2 minutes
Updated:   8:10 (7.4 minutes ago)


picks will close soon  about 10-14 hours

[d57heinz]

So what happened exactly? Looks like the difficulty is back to normal and might be +5 or so.

Why turn on all that gear and shut it off?

You can see it quite clearly here on this graph..  http://nextdifficulty.com/
Best Regards

Currently
Net Hashrate

426,357.08 TH/s

d57heinz

[philipma1957]

So what happened exactly? Looks like the difficulty is back to normal and might be +5 or so.

Why turn on all that gear and shut it off?

To not have such a large change in difficulty. Mine hardcore, grab bitcoins at low difficulty. Turn off miners so that the difficulty doesn't go too high.

Rinse and repeat

close enough.  it looks to me that  bitmaintech and avalon are both going to sell gear like mad.

So at times big flux will happen.

I also think all builders of asics know that NOV. DEC. JAN.  = cold = sales

I ALSO suspect bitmaintech can make and sell an s-7 for 500 usd and turn profit.   

Which means they could have 10,000 of them  for a cost of say 3,500,000.

 Sell them slowly at 1500  once they sold 2400 of them.  the other 7600 are free.

7600 machines  are 36ph  that could be turned on and off to mine at will.

they would need 10 megawatts  .  it is possible this is being done.

Remember the gear is paid for.  I saw a tv show on 60 minutes about empty cities in China.  their construction was government funded.

whats 10mega watts to a large government? nothing.

Why do all this?  WTF do I know.  But it would go beyond the money angle if it was being done.

[Biodom]

So what happened exactly? Looks like the difficulty is back to normal and might be +5 or so.

Why turn on all that gear and shut it off?

To not have such a large change in difficulty. Mine hardcore, grab bitcoins at low difficulty. Turn off miners so that the difficulty doesn't go too high.

Rinse and repeat

close enough.  it looks to me that  bitmaintech and avalon are both going to sell gear like mad.

So at times big flux will happen.

I also think all builders of asics know that NOV. DEC. JAN.  = cold = sales

I ALSO suspect bitmaintech can make and sell an s-7 for 500 usd and turn profit.   

Which means they could have 10,000 of them  for a cost of say 3,500,000.

 Sell them slowly at 1500  once they sold 2400 of them.  the other 7600 are free.

7600 machines  are 36ph  that could be turned on and off to mine at will.

they would need 10 megawatts  .  it is possible this is being done.

Remember the gear is paid for.  I saw a tv show on 60 minutes about empty cities in China.  their construction was government funded.

whats 10mega watts to a large government? nothing.

Why do all this?  WTF do I know.  But it would go beyond the money angle if it was being done.

yeah, check this out:
http://bravenewcoin.com/news/imf-unable-to-supply-the-currency-needed-to-counter-speculative-attack-using-bitcoin/

[alh]

OK, I am in:

+8.3 = alh

Thanks again for running this Phil, and suchmoon for funding it!

[philipma1957]

OK, I am in:

+8.3 = alh

Thanks again for running this Phil, and suchmoon for funding it!

got that.

to all we have 38 blocks for picks


 (+8.21%)  is bitcoinwisdom's number.

[UfoRia]

+9.0 = Ufo

[philipma1957]

+9.0 = Ufo

you are in time we have 11 blocks to closing

I need to be off line  so if someone wants to track closing please do so.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,492,887,688 (+8.57%)  current guess by them.
Adjust time:   After 827 Blocks, About 5.3 days ---------------we close at 816
Hashrate(?):   522,355,469 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes
Updated:   19:25 (1.4 minutes ago)