Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed!

[suchmoon]

7 blocks to go!

Edit: which shows that we only made 4 since Phil's post an hour ago, yay

[1715471559]

1715471559

[1715471559]

1715471559

[1715471559]

1715471559

[Swordsoffreedom]

Last Call
We are exactly at Block 816 so pretty much Done

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,355,990,814 (+8.36%)
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 5.2 days

[suchmoon]

816 blocks remaining in this cycle. Picks are officially closed, Phil will update the thread title when he gets back.

Here is a useful chart to illustrate what was happening the last few days. As you can see AntPool, BTCChina, F2Pool, and especially KnC had exceptional luck.

http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a

[UfoRia]

Hope http://nextdifficulty.com/ is wrong and some bad luck hits soon!


Ufo

[adaseb]

Hope http://nextdifficulty.com/ is wrong and some bad luck hits soon!


Ufo

'

Don't think they are wrong. Maybe off by 1% or so.

[philipma1957]

Just closed picks

[philipma1957]

okay day 8

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

we are 1208  made should be  1107  I get (+9.12% )

which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+8.27%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,295,466,565 (+8.27%)
Adjust time:   After 808 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   513,100,488 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.1 minutes
Updated:   22:30 (4.5 minutes ago)


http://nextdifficulty.com/

is 9.1 to 15. with 10.6 as most likely


Conservative: 9.1% 10.6% Continous: 15 %
Next Difficulty Value:72794150521
Change will happen on appr. November 24, 2015, 6:51 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 812 ------------ based on 812 so they are 4 behind bitcoinwisdom


I see 7 as an unlikely low and 12 as an unlikely high

with 9.5 as very close.

but look at last year's numbers

Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s nicest
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s nicer
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s nice
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s ---------- big run up

Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s two nice
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s  ^^^^
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s two runups
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s ^^^^^

Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s


these are encouraging

[UfoRia]

Will definitely be an interesting diff period this cycle, the next one is the one I am really interested about.


Ufo

[adaseb]

okay day 8

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

we are 1208  made should be  1107  I get (+9.12% )

which is a little worse then bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+8.27%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   71,295,466,565 (+8.27%)
Adjust time:   After 808 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   513,100,488 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.1 minutes
Updated:   22:30 (4.5 minutes ago)


http://nextdifficulty.com/

is 9.1 to 15. with 10.6 as most likely


Conservative: 9.1% 10.6% Continous: 15 %
Next Difficulty Value:72794150521
Change will happen on appr. November 24, 2015, 6:51 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 812 ------------ based on 812 so they are 4 behind bitcoinwisdom


I see 7 as an unlikely low and 12 as an unlikely high

with 9.5 as very close.

but look at last year's numbers

Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s nicest
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s nicer
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s nice
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s ---------- big run up

Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s two nice
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s  ^^^^
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s two runups
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s ^^^^^

Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s


these are encouraging

Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?

[edonkey]

Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?

What fire? Do you have a link?

[philipma1957]

Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?

What fire? Do you have a link?

this was a year ago.  a place  in South asia.

and if you give me time I could find photos


page 6 of spec threads has a ton of my spec threads all in a row


found it
 last nov 2014

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=846810.0;all

[suchmoon]

Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?

What fire? Do you have a link?

http://www.coindesk.com/gallery-fire-destroys-thai-bitcoin-mining-facility/

I think the impact of the fire was incorrectly estimated at that time. The news spread at the beginning of November but later it turned out that it happened in 2-3 weeks prior. And the total capacity of that farm appears to have been 4-6 PH/s at most, barely 2% of the the network. Not enough to be distinguished from variance the hashrate charts IMHO. Look at our ~5% swing just over the last few days.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom is looking better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:    70,269,710,108 (+6.71%)
Adjust time:    After 718 Blocks, About 4.7 days
Hashrate(?):    486,238,357 GH/s

But this could be do to some miners that are shipping right now.  Even if it is I like not seeing a 10 number up there.

[adaseb]

No idea what is going on.

That day there were about 5-6 blocks solved every 10-20 minutes. It looked like 100-200PH/s were added to the network and then poof, gone.


I don't think its variance.

Maybe it was Bitfury/KNC new chips but they ran for about 12 hours and then they failed and shut off.

[edonkey]

Didn't the difficulty fall back then due to that massive farm fire ?

What fire? Do you have a link?

http://www.coindesk.com/gallery-fire-destroys-thai-bitcoin-mining-facility/

I think the impact of the fire was incorrectly estimated at that time. The news spread at the beginning of November but later it turned out that it happened in 2-3 weeks prior. And the total capacity of that farm appears to have been 4-6 PH/s at most, barely 2% of the the network. Not enough to be distinguished from variance the hashrate charts IMHO. Look at our ~5% swing just over the last few days.

Thanks Suchmoon.

[philipma1957]

No idea what is going on.

That day there were about 5-6 blocks solved every 10-20 minutes. It looked like 100-200PH/s were added to the network and then poof, gone.


I don't think its variance.

Maybe it was Bitfury/KNC new chips but they ran for about 12 hours and then they failed and shut off.

well here are some facts.

the s-7 can do .25 watts per gh

a 100mega watt farm is 400ph capable .

my home can do 6.667 kwatts of mining

so 3 guys like me can do 20kwatts in their home

30 guys can do  200 kwatts

300 homes can do 2000 kwatts or 2 megawatts

3000 homes can do 20 megawatts

30,000 homes can do 200 megawatts   and if all were using s-7's  at .25 watts  that would be 800ph. more then our entire network.

SO to think a government could ask a company such as bitmaintech or bitfury or knc to build a big plant /farm  with the ability to add 100ph-400ph  of hash is not nutty. To think it is up and running on command right now I am not so sure.
But it would not be very costly.

 I would think 40 megawatt power  plant built by China solely to supply bitmaintech power is not a stretch.  I am just not sure of the why of it.

[edonkey]

I just happened to look and currently it's the devil's difficulty: 6.66%

Hope it continues to trend down, but I doubt it will...

[philipma1957]

I just happened to look and currently it's the devil's difficulty: 6.66%

Hope it continues to trend down, but I doubt it will...

well if I look at https://blockchain.info/blocks/1447898154776



384364 (Main Chain)
384229 (Main Chain)

136 made  for the 19th and thats a drop


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty     has 6.66


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   70,248,995,057 (+6.68%)
Adjust time:   After 675 Blocks, About 4.4 days
Hashrate(?):   483,894,379 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.2 minutes
6 blocks: 56.5 minutes
Updated:   20:55 (3.4 minutes ago)


classic signs of diff manipulation maybe .  variance maybe.

both  most likely

[notlist3d]

Price is taking a little of a dive at coinbase right now: 313.55  So loss of value of 21.15 in 24 hours currently.

Hopefully this reverses soon as i don't like watching it dive down.  I liked having 330 as new floor.

[philipma1957]

okay day 9

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

11-14-2015   146 + 2                               +47

11-15-2015   156 is +12                           +59    

 11-16-2015  172 is +28                           +87

11-17-2015   146 is +2                             +89   and plus 2 looks nice

11-18-2015   156 is +12                           +101

11-19-2015   131 is -13                            +88  same drop about the same time last diff adj


1358 blocks made should be  1270    which is +6.92%


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+7.10)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   70,520,828,888 (+7.10%)
Adjust time:   After 658 Blocks, About 4.3 days
Hashrate(?):   489,151,772 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.1 minutes
Updated: