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Author Topic: Shouldnt we wait for Halving before buying new miners?  (Read 1502 times)
btckold24
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November 18, 2015, 12:32:58 AM
 #1

with halving coming up it seems impossible to get ROI on any asics that are out. I would guess when btc halves wont the price of miners also halve?



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notlist3d
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November 18, 2015, 01:04:38 AM
 #2

with halving coming up it seems impossible to get ROI on any asics that are out. I would guess when btc halves wont the price of miners also halve?

No one can give you a good anwser on this.  Just to many variables are still out there unanswered and having is still a long ways out in mining terms.

We don't know what gen miners will be out then, and what the efficiency will be.  Also someone might mine and sell to a "free" or lower priced electricity person on new gear now.  So mining and selling is a valid ROI.  I like to ROI before selling, but with having coming.. you never know.

We just need variables that we cannot possibly even speculate with accuracy. 
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November 18, 2015, 07:18:42 AM
 #3

IMHO a bitcoin price rise due to the reward halving (which halvens the daily output of mined BTC from 3600 to 1800) could compensate for loss of mining gains. But it's risky, that's beyond dispute.

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November 18, 2015, 07:25:00 AM
 #4

Like others have said: it's risky...
But if you like gambling, i would say go for it  Cool

The chance that the price will rise due to the halving is good, the chance that newer and more efficient miners come out in the near future is reasonable (but how long will it take... nobody knows).
There's also the odd chance that other people will turn off their mining equipment because they run old miners and they're no longer making a profit after the halving, i guess?

All in all, i think i would buy some S7's right now if my electricity rates weren't this outrageous... It'll take more than 30 weeks untill the halving (if i'm correct), and even after the halving, there's still a good chance you'll ROI (but it's an gamble). Add the resell value of the S7's, and you'll have a decent chance of making a profit.

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November 18, 2015, 07:40:32 AM
 #5

no you should mine now and sell before the halving, especially if something else more efficient will kick in, but at some point the efficiency will not count too much if the price do not increase, i'm talking about future halving 2020 and 2024

if you begin now and the price increase after the halving you had already plenty of month of mining, if this will not happen, see above...so there is no point in waiting
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November 18, 2015, 08:02:21 AM
 #6

Im looking forward to the halving. The halving might shift the balance of power back to us average joes and away from the corporations.

Cause ill tell you one thing, hobbyist miners ultimately don't care about making a loss. There are many home miners mining at a loss or narrow margins and thats because they do it either for fun or because they believe in the vision of Bitcoin.

Corporations cant and wont mine at any sustained loss, either they will have to make much more efficient hardware (would be possible on 14 or 10nm), find and develop alternative energy sources (ultimately better for our planet) or bail out completely.

The worst case i think is if the bitcoin prices doubles or more to compensate for halving, that bails out the corporations and gives them an easy way out and restoring the status quo and diminishing the chances of decentralisation.

If better hardware is made, it will not be sold publicly in order to maximise the profits of the makers. So if that happens any mining ASIC you have might be worth holding on to, and you should still run it so that you dont give the big companies an easier task.

So no, i dont think you should wait for halving if you want to buy a new miner, buy it while you can. Halving only affects people who as trying to mine as a business.
A home miner with a couple of s3/s5/s7 isnt going to just shut them down at the halving, it makes no sense to do so since as long as there is coin to mine, home miners will mine, profitable or not.
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November 18, 2015, 08:19:06 AM
 #7

No reason to wait for halving, mine while you can, because now you can get relatively more that after halving. And there could be a good price jump after halving, so that is another positive factor.

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November 18, 2015, 09:12:51 PM
 #8

IMHO a bitcoin price rise due to the reward halving (which halvens the daily output of mined BTC from 3600 to 1800) could compensate for loss of mining gains. But it's risky, that's beyond dispute.

It stayed at 230 a pretty long time on floor.  I don't think you can completely give credit to only having on increase.  It's still a while away in mining terms I still say that far cannot be very  accurately speculated.

But I would love to be wrong and someone have a good speculation.  But i think just to many unknowns.
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November 18, 2015, 09:31:50 PM
 #9

with halving coming up it seems impossible to get ROI on any asics that are out. I would guess when btc halves wont the price of miners also halve?

why wait when you can get twice (without even counting difficulty increases) as much per Th as in 7mo?
It is either now or maybe never, at least at a serious "amateur" scale.
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November 19, 2015, 04:42:24 AM
 #10

with halving coming up it seems impossible to get ROI on any asics that are out. I would guess when btc halves wont the price of miners also halve?

Maybe, but if the cost of mining machines halved with bitcoin the ROI would stay the same. So in your words "impossible".


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November 19, 2015, 10:24:11 AM
 #11

yeah im thinking of picking up 2k worth of coins pre halving instead of spending that money on equipment. Hopefully that pays of better in the long run and btc soars



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November 19, 2015, 02:30:12 PM
 #12

yeah im thinking of picking up 2k worth of coins pre halving instead of spending that money on equipment. Hopefully that pays of better in the long run and btc soars

If that is your plan I would do it sooner then later.   You want as much pre-having  mining as you can get.   If you wait close to having it's hard to say what it will look like then, just to far away to speculate.

But I still think buying mine with them, and at having if you have to sell do it.... this for a lot will make ROI (I believe).  And the selling at end could be a important part on getting ROI as we approach having.
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November 22, 2015, 03:48:34 AM
 #13

yeah thats true but when I buy a mining machine I hate having to sell it on ebay right away - would rather wait for halving before making a new purchase and just run my s2



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November 23, 2015, 08:26:02 PM
 #14

with halving coming up it seems impossible to get ROI on any asics that are out. I would guess when btc halves wont the price of miners also halve?

Lol, the price of miners will never half.
It just won't happen.
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November 24, 2015, 07:40:10 AM
 #15

with halving coming up it seems impossible to get ROI on any asics that are out. I would guess when btc halves wont the price of miners also halve?

Lol, the price of miners will never half.
It just won't happen.

well thew s5 cost 300 now or 350, i doubt it was the case at the beginning, so yes it can be depreciated quite a bit

usually if no other miners with better efficiency come out, it holds quite strong
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November 24, 2015, 07:41:05 AM
 #16

why wouldnt the miners half? I mean its not like they use state of the art electronics.... If they can sell a smart phone or a tablet for 150-200 dollars they should be able to sell miners for cheaper.  Seems like they price the miner for the ROI not the cost of the actual parts



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Rainbot
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November 24, 2015, 09:03:47 AM
 #17

Other than the S7, Avalon 6, and announced B-Eleven, any current miners are going to be completely UNPROFITABLE after the halfing, unless Bitcoin prices kicks up a LOT or you have VERY VERY VERY cheap to free electric.

 On the other hand, I suspect that some folks are already deploying 14/16nm full custom ASIC in small quantities, or are getting ready to (KnC and BitFury come immediately to mind) and I suspect a few more are working on that gen with a high probability of deployment SOMETIME next year (Avalon is shooting themselves in the foot if they really did refuse to even start design work at 14nm per that interview with one of their folks).

 The main issue with current-gen gear is it came out at a bad time at far to high of a cost for most folks to ever make ROI on it before the halfing - and even the S7 is going to be a VERY LOW profit machine after that even with VERY VERY cheap electric (the SP50 will be a little better if it meets specs, the Avalon 6 worse).


 A lot of folks got spoiled by the long run of very low difficulty increases late last year and the first half of this year, they got used to expecting to have a year or more available to achieve RoI on their machines - now comes the big shakeup.


 I figure the NEXT gen of machines will revive home mining to some degree, as they'll go back to having year+ timeframes that they're decently profitable, instead of 8 or less MONTHS of decent profit then WHAM little or nothing.
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November 24, 2015, 09:05:57 AM
 #18


well thew s5 cost 300 now or 350, i doubt it was the case an the beginning, so yes it can be depreciated quite a bit



 S5 is now a generation old, majorly less efficient than either of the new miners commonly available - and I've not see it at $350 since the BTCC-inspired Bitcoin price spike. I've been giving serious consideration to selling mine off NOW when I can do so at a profit - not even factoring in the amount I've managed to mine with them - and putting the resulting coin into another investment I'm working with right now.
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November 24, 2015, 10:50:29 AM
 #19

Thats a smart idea leo- bank the profit and sell off the machines and wait to find the next big deal. I found with bitcoin when you are late to the party or get your machine later than everyone your roi stinks and if your not smart about dumping off the machine when you can get something for it then it becomes a paper weight like my two BFL systems lol



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Rainbot
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November 24, 2015, 01:26:36 PM
 #20

The latest golden age of mining just ended IMHO. Buying a batch 8 S7 or an Avalon 6 today is getting in a bit late to this generation. With the last diff jump of 10%+ and the next 10%+ in less than 14 days your looking at -25% in profits before you even get mining. Because the diff increases compound, your looking at getting half what you could have a few months ago within the next month or two.

I'd wait another month for the next price drop because its coming. Once people stop buying at the current prices because of absurd diff jumps the mining companies (Bitmain/Avalon) will have to slash prices to entice another round of buying because the ROI will be in the toilet. This will be the next time to buy, probably early Jan/Feb. Wait it out till then and be ready with coins the second they go on sale.
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