All speculators invited: 2015/6 Price Prediction Contest. Win 0.44 BTC.

[oda.krell]

Intro

How about another prediction contest? Last time I ran one of these, the prediction horizon was 90 days. This time, let's make it a year from now!

Participation is free, but I'd kindly ask you to send a tx of any value (one satoshi even, if you manage to get it through) to the address below, to confirm that you're a network user. In return, I pledge to pay a prize of 0.3 BTC (or $100 in BTC, by my choice) to the winner of this contest.

Entries are submitted hidden through a form, but will be made public at the end of the submission period. Details follow below. If you're not a fan of long explanations, skip to the summary (in red) at the end of this post.

Feeling interested?


The rules

How to participate:

* Submit your entry by November 30th 2015, 23:59 UTC.

* To do so, open up this form on Google Docs: November 2015 to November 2016 Bitcoin Price Prediction Contest

* Enter your forum name in the first field, and your interval estimate for the price per bitcoin in USD, evaluated against the value of a 20 day SMA on November 30th 2016 on Bitstamp, in the third and fourth field. For example: Entering 1 (USD) in the "lower bound" field, 1,000,000 (USD) in the "upper bound" field, is interpreted as: "The USD value of one bitcoin (understood as the value of a 20 day SMA) on Bitstamp on November 30th 2016 will be between $1 and $1,000,000". Got it?

* Send a Bitcoin transaction -- any value will do, no matter how small -- to this address under my control: 1M3QWNsug3hAL6W26VugAQpmzDFHWSAaZC

* Enter the txid of your transaction in the second field of the above Google form. Press 'Submit'. Wait a year. Win 0.3 BTC (or 100$ in BTC)... if your estimate is the winning entry, that is.


Details:

* Prize: I hereby pledge to pay a prize of 0.3 BTC, or $100 in BTC, to the winner of this contest. Which of the two values will be the prize is my own choice at the time the contest ends. In addition, the value of all participation transactions will be sent to the winner(s) as well.

* Entries: As a contest entry, you are asked to submit a price range, e.g. $100 to $10,000. You are free to make this range as wide or as narrow as you wish. If you prefer to enter a point estimate, simply enter the same value in both fields (the "lower" and "upper" field). Both values must be integers, and the "lower bound" value must be smaller (or equal) to the "upper bound" value.

* Price as moving average: These two values are compared to the value of a 20 day simple moving average over USD per BTC on Bitstamp at the end of November 30th 2016. The correct value, i.e. the value of 20 day SMA upon daily close on November 30th 2016, is determined on bitcoinwisdom.com.

* Source of correct value: In case either Bitstamp or bitcoinwisdom is dysfunct by the evaluation deadline (November 2016), or it is generally agreed that one or both of these sources do not accurately reflect the price per bitcoin anymore, I will chose an alternative exchange and/or charting site that represents the "gold standard" at that time.

* Winner determination: The winner of this contest is determined as the narrowest correct valid entry. "Valid" means it contained a txid to the above address, and contains valid data for the estimate. "Correct" means the actual value (of the 20 day SMA) on Nov 30th 2016 must be within the range you entered. "Narrowest" is defined as  the lowest value of "upper bound - lower bound" of all "correct" ranges submitted.

* Mutiple winners: In case there is more than one winning entry (i.e. correct, and same width of estimate) the prize will be split among all such entries. In case no winner can be determined (because no entry is "correct"), the prize and total value of the participation transactions will be donated to a charity of my choice.

* Usage of the participation transaction: The entire value of all txs sent to the address above will be added to the prize money, either to be paid out to the winner(s), or to be donated to a charity (in case no winner can be determined).

* Entry details: Entries must be submitted by the above Google docs form. During the submission period, participants will not be able to see the other participants entries, to avoid entry coordination. After the submission deadline (November 30th 2015), I will open the above form, allowing everybody to see all other entries. Since I am able to see all entries at any point, I will not participate myself in the game.


Summary

(1) Submit your prediction for the bitcoin price (compared to a 20 day simple moving average) on November 30th 2016 on Bitstamp, via this form, no later than November 30th 2015. To participate, please include a txid of a transaction to 1M3QWNsug3hAL6W26VugAQpmzDFHWSAaZC.

(2) ...

(3) Profit! (if you win)

[oda.krell]

(EDIT 1) Updated subject of OP (0.3 BTC -> 0.44 BTC)

[oda.krell]

First entry submitted and accepted.

Thanks for the more than required tx value. As a result, the winning prize just increased by about 15%

[r0ach]

$999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999.00

[oda.krell]

^ What's the upper bound of your estimate?

[RyNinDaCleM]

^ What's the upper bound of your estimate?

lol

I will play again. I just need a day or two to decide what I'll allow the price to be in a year (I don't usually have to plan so far out )

[Possum577]

So if one provides a narrower range and hit the right price they'll win over someone who hit the right price with a wider range, correct?

Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?

I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.

[megadeth]

So if one provides a narrower range and hit the right price they'll win over someone who hit the right price with a wider range, correct?

Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?

I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.

Look at OP's track record and the last contest he ran.

[oda.krell]

So if one provides a narrower range and hit the right price they'll win over someone who hit the right price with a wider range, correct?

Correct.

Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?

I'll be here, and I'll remember, don't worry. Alternatively, I'm sure someone will remind me of it .

And re: using the data for my own purposes. I'll have a ~10 day head start (then the data becomes public, like I said) on anyone else over a 1 year prediction horizon -- don't think there's much I can do with it.

I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.

Thanks. Don't overthink it. I'm doing this game because I don't like this forum if it's filled with nothing but {bull, bear} spam. That, and that I want to get a feeling for how good we are (collectively) in far-away price estimates. Curiosity, basically.

[vorazvora]

Any user rank restrictions?

Anyway I will wait with prediction till 30 of November - for now i just stick to this thread

[oda.krell]

^ Hell no. Anyone can join.

Actually, I x-posted this in the newcomer forum. Plenty new members seem to be looking for ways to squeeze a few satoshis out of some faucet, so I was thinking maybe a contest like this is interesting because it offers a chance to win more than what a faucet usually offers.

[sgbett]

Consider my entry pending... just waiting for a bit of small change to work its way through the network so I can post an entry.

Anyone else remember the days when transactions went in the next block

[sgbett]

May the luck of Satoshi shine on me. Like Peter Jones, "I'm in"

[Pierre 2]

Good way to speculate more rational prices (to win prize)!
Also it will provide good data. Let's join contest.
Thanks for it!

[oda.krell]

Three valid prediction submissions so far -- and another one with a very generous value attached to it -- meaning the lucky, or hopefully rather: competent winner will get at least ~0.44 BTC as of now.

8 more days to go, by the way.

[oda.krell]

May the luck of Satoshi shine on me. Like Peter Jones, "I'm in"

I have no idea who Peter Jones is, but you're in indeed. Also, thanks a lot:)

[oda.krell]

Still only 3 submissions... either some of you are waiting for the last days to submit a prediction (not sure why), or there's less interest in this contest than I had thought.

/game theory hat on

(The following is not based on any information of the actually submitted entries, but purely based on the number of submissions, which happens to be publicly available by looking at the address I posted in OP. In other words, I'm not giving away any information that you couldn't have already gained by looking at the address, plus some analytical reasoning.)

To encourage speculators that aren't sure whether they should submit a "guess", I'd like to point out that at the moment, even a participant with no knowledge of the market, submitting as an entry, purely by chance, but based on game theoretic considerations, e.g. the range "between $1 and $1 billion" would have:

(1) either a 1 in 4 chance to win, assuming the other participants also submitted bets without actual market analysis, but purely by chance, and similar ranges (i.e. from "extremely unlikely low" to "extremely unlikely high"). This is simplified of course, because the condition "narrowest range wins" means if you pick a "silly big range" that is just $1 narrower than that of the others, you win. But for simplicity, let's assume each "pure guesser" just picks the same "silly big" range as a prediction.

(2) a chance to win that is a function of the prediction ability of the other participants, in case the others do attempt to actually predict the market. While I'm sure some people have a better than pure luck chance to predict the price, over such a long time horizon I don't think anyone is really close to certainty, so for a very optimistic (imo) estimate that a market predictor has a 2:1 chance to get the price right, you, as the fourth submitter with no market knowledge (and winning by "default" because of the silly big range you submitted) would still have a chance of at least (1/3)^3  ~= 4% to win, without any effort.

However, that assumes that the ability to predict correctly of each trader (which I set to 2:1) are independent, which obviously they are not: if their predictions match, then they overlap, so your chance to win is closer to 1/3, and if their predictions don't match, then the initial estimate that each of them has a 2/3 chance to win is not really tenable. To see why, imagine one trader predicts "1 to 10", the other "1000 to 10,000". It makes little sense to say that each of these predictions has a 2:1 chance to be correct. Assuming that the market can in principle be predicted - stochastically at least - we would probably want to connect probabilities of prediction correctness to some objective, extensionally distinguishable features of the market, in which case, the traders' prediction probabilities of disjoint predictions should -roughly- sum to one, so again, you're sitting -very roughly speaking- somewhere between a 4% and 33% chance to win, without any knowledge of the market future.

/game theory hat off


Summary: Even if you completely suck at market predictions, given the current low number of participants, you still have a real shot at winning this contest. Unless you are already sitting on a rather large coin stash, I'd say a real chance (as argued above) to win ~0.44 BTC is probably worth the minor hassle of submitting a prediction :D


Or even simpler put: only ~4 days left to submit an entry!

[sgbett]

People are generally hopeless. Or 1 satoshi is *really* valuable these days!

[oda.krell]

People are generally hopeless. Or 1 satoshi is *really* valuable these days!

For fairness sake, getting 1 satoshi through the network might require more patience than anyone realistically would have

Wondering now, what's the smallest amount of dust or near-dust you can currently get through if you're willing to wait, say, a day or two. Anyone happens to know that? I guess it depends on the number of nodes that are set to relay non-standard transactions, right?

(EDIT) Let's say the goal is to spend the absolutely lowest amount in total. Which likely means you want to cross the dust threshold (546 satoshis ~= 0.0019 USD), with no fees attached, so you're at the mercy of miners to have it included in a block, but at least it'll be relayed. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong here).

In other words, participation is not 1 satoshi like I claimed, but more likely 546 satoshis, or about 0.2 cent.

[NorrisK]

Ok, I send in a prediction!

Was hard to get it to be accepted as non dust, so I just set it at 10k satoshi to be done with it

Good luck everybody.