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Author Topic: So are we all guilty of a Pump & Dump?  (Read 4653 times)
interfect
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June 06, 2011, 08:25:04 AM
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I've seen quite a few articles around lately to the effect of "This is Bitcoin, it is going to be the future of money, I invested all my money in it, and you should too." As far as I know, the U.S. has some laws to the effect of "you can't buy something, tell everyone it's awesome in order to drive up the price, and then sell it". To what extent might individuals writing these articles, or the Bitcoin community as a whole, be guilty of this practice?
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liberty
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June 06, 2011, 08:26:50 AM
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What Pump & Dump?! All that I know is Pump, Pump ... and Pump more!!!
interfect
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June 06, 2011, 08:34:32 AM
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What Pump & Dump?! All that I know is Pump, Pump ... and Pump more!!!

Yeah, I suppose there would eventually be some dumping.

What happened to all of Satoshi's coins, again?
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June 06, 2011, 08:37:20 AM
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they work  as planed
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June 06, 2011, 08:44:16 AM
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I don't see much pumping other than within the bitcoin community where it isn't required.  The rest, including many large forums, are all pretty much trashing bitcoin.  It's also quite difficult for the layman to buy bitcoin, so you have to be really committed if you want some. That doesn't lend itself to people making impulse buys because of media hype.
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June 06, 2011, 09:00:40 AM
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@interfect, I think that you should do some reading up on the Logistic Function: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Logistic_function

One off NP-Hard.
Danny Crane
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June 06, 2011, 12:53:50 PM
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Don't worry, the Chinese will pay in the end.
BubbleBoy
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June 06, 2011, 12:59:01 PM
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@interfect, I think that you should do some reading up on the Logistic Function: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Logistic_function

Are you implying the BTC price would follow a logistic curve to long-term value ? With no overshot ? What would give that shape ?
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June 06, 2011, 01:10:26 PM
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I've seen quite a few articles around lately to the effect of "This is Bitcoin, it is going to be the future of money, I invested all my money in it, and you should too." As far as I know, the U.S. has some laws to the effect of "you can't buy something, tell everyone it's awesome in order to drive up the price, and then sell it". To what extent might individuals writing these articles, or the Bitcoin community as a whole, be guilty of this practice?

I hear the US has a law against breathing. 

I don't let law determine my morality.
benjamindees
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June 06, 2011, 01:23:08 PM
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"you can't buy something, tell everyone it's awesome in order to drive up the price, and then sell it"

I think you're missing the crucial aspect that the thing in question must not actually be awesome.  Since Bitcoin is, in fact, awesome, this doesn't seem to apply.

Seriously, though, I see early adopters "cashing out" in order to buy mining equipment and mine more Bitcoins.  And I seriously question whether anyone has sold Bitcoins in order to hold fiat currency.

Civil Liberty Through Complex Mathematics
altoid
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June 06, 2011, 03:52:11 PM
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And I seriously question whether anyone has sold Bitcoins in order to hold fiat currency.
I sold out at $8.5
 Looking to buy back in at $1 after bitcoin has been made illegal and everyone thinks its doomed
Ksg89
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June 06, 2011, 03:55:55 PM
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@interfect, I think that you should do some reading up on the Logistic Function: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Logistic_function

Are you implying the BTC price would follow a logistic curve to long-term value ? With no overshot ? What would give that shape ?

This is what I believe will happen too (providing that BitCoin is 'successful'). The graph will never bee smooth so sure, there will be overshots and undershot. But long term, I do believe the 'value' will follow this curve closely.
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June 06, 2011, 04:01:59 PM
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Around 11:24am (EST) I saw a Bitcoin transaction in the block chain of 145,140. That is a notional value of $2.722 Million dollars. That, in addition to in increased frequency of 100 - 1,000 BTC transactions (and even more in the 1,000 - 10,000 range) doesn't seem to be consistent with a flash-in-the-pan kind of opportunity.

How do I know? Because I've actually traded 'pink sheets' before. You know, stocks that list at 10 cents and then spike to maybe a dollar or two? They have an extremely short half-life from their peak. They also have a pattern of 'loading up the truck' in the beginning, as volume spikes and price stays the same - right before the actual 'pump' operation puts prices high enough that the original scammers can dump their shares without killing their average execution price.

Bitcoin, as new as it is, has shown some good strength in the face of some recent doublings in value. This isn't the expected behavior from a 'transitory' currency. I expect fully that the trend will be maintained (log chart, bitcoincharts,com mtgox/USD) for some time, with momentary spikes as another round of people get involved.

So to answer the parent posters question - no, we are not 'guilty' of anything except wanting money to be as free as thought itself.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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June 06, 2011, 04:04:18 PM
 #14

I've seen quite a few articles around lately to the effect of "This is Bitcoin, it is going to be the future of money, I invested all my money in it, and you should too." As far as I know, the U.S. has some laws to the effect of "you can't buy something, tell everyone it's awesome in order to drive up the price, and then sell it". To what extent might individuals writing these articles, or the Bitcoin community as a whole, be guilty of this practice?

get your coins by providing goods & services. do not buy them. trade collectibles, move lawns, etc.
should be safe.

You can't build a reputation on what you are going to do.
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June 06, 2011, 04:07:00 PM
 #15

And I seriously question whether anyone has sold Bitcoins in order to hold fiat currency.
I sold out at $8.5
 Looking to buy back in at $1 after bitcoin has been made illegal and everyone thinks its doomed
This is my ONLY concern about the future of bitcoins.

And TraderTimm, good post.
Denicen
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June 08, 2011, 05:12:25 AM
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If it is a pump and dump is irrelevant to me, I will keep using bitcoin as long as it:
1. has some value, and that its value driven by the free market
2. has no need for a trusted third party to carry out transactions

As long as those two things are true then bitcoin has succeeded imo
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