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Author Topic: Is Bitcoin under attack? Where did the sudden increase in hashrate come from?  (Read 5518 times)
cloud9
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June 06, 2011, 04:39:28 PM
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Bitcoin's hash rate pie chart on bitcoinwatch.com shows a sudden "other" group that was added to the hash rate that increased dramatically.  Are these nodes ip addresses' geolocation dispersed as would be expected by a broadly take up of the wide public or is it concentrated?  (Like "Suggested" here http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=57.msg175165#msg175165 and here http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=57.msg175245#msg175245 ).  Is the growth really this organic?  It seams like the hash rate climbed upward out of its exponential growth curve? ( http://www.bitcoinwatch.com )

Disclaimer:  Postings of Cloud9 are only individual views of opinion and/or musings and/or hypothesisses.  On a non-authoritative, peer-to-peer public forum, you do not need permission from Cloud9 to derive your own conclusions or opinions, so please do.  Calculations and assumptions to be verified.
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June 06, 2011, 04:49:15 PM
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Bitcoin's hash rate pie chart on bitcoinwatch.com shows a sudden "other" group that was added to the hash rate that increased dramatically.  Are these nodes ip addresses' geolocation dispersed as would be expected by a broadly take up of the wide public or is it concentrated?  (Like "Suggested" here http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=57.msg175165#msg175165 and here http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=57.msg175245#msg175245 )

I would think it's because of an influx of new miners getting their rigs built, but that definitely seems like a huge increase of network hashrate.
cloud9
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June 06, 2011, 04:53:26 PM
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I would think it's because of an influx of new miners getting their rigs built, but that definitely seems like a huge increase of network hashrate.

Could be, could be not?  Huh

Geolocating the newly added nodes' ip address should be telling?  Does anybody have that at hand?  I know there were map implementations of that.  If that can be combined with hash rate it will be really telling.

Luckily "other" showed up as less than 50% - for now that is.  Until the geolocation of this new source of hash rate is known, and how dispersed it is, it will be a cause for concern.

Disclaimer:  Postings of Cloud9 are only individual views of opinion and/or musings and/or hypothesisses.  On a non-authoritative, peer-to-peer public forum, you do not need permission from Cloud9 to derive your own conclusions or opinions, so please do.  Calculations and assumptions to be verified.
IIOII
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June 06, 2011, 04:58:54 PM
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That looks a bit scary.  Shocked

lizthegrey
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June 06, 2011, 04:59:17 PM
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Difficulty just changed, peoples' graphs are screwed up.
cloud9
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June 06, 2011, 05:03:12 PM
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Difficulty just changed, peoples' graphs are screwed up.

 Huh

Disclaimer:  Postings of Cloud9 are only individual views of opinion and/or musings and/or hypothesisses.  On a non-authoritative, peer-to-peer public forum, you do not need permission from Cloud9 to derive your own conclusions or opinions, so please do.  Calculations and assumptions to be verified.
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June 06, 2011, 05:18:48 PM
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Difficulty just changed, peoples' graphs are screwed up.

He's right. Bitcoin charts calculation of network hash speed is related to difficulty. After every "visible" change the calculated hash rate jumps and then settles down in a day or two. It's happen every difficulty jump. People need to use search function.

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WilliamJohnson
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June 06, 2011, 05:19:02 PM
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Don't panic!

It happened last time the difficulty changed, too. Estimates were wrong at first.
Wait about 24h, and the hashrate should get back to "normal".
IIOII
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June 06, 2011, 05:22:27 PM
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Difficulty just changed, peoples' graphs are screwed up.

He's right. Bitcoin charts calculation of network has speed is related to difficulty. After every "visible" change the calculated hash rate jumps and then settles down in a day or two. It's happen every difficulty jump. People need to use search function.

Thanks for this information!

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June 06, 2011, 05:26:33 PM
 #10

The estimation algorithm used on http://bitcoin.sipa.be should correctly take difficulty changes into account, as each block is simply counted as as many hashes are expected to have been needed for it.

aka sipa, core dev team

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cloud9
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June 06, 2011, 05:34:07 PM
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The estimation algorithm used on http://bitcoin.sipa.be should correctly take difficulty changes into account, as each block is simply counted as as many hashes are expected to have been needed for it.

Oh, thanks - on the long term graph at http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ it looks reassuringly organic exponential - seems like the prior dip we recently saw is causing the distortion on the short term graph shown on http://www.bitcoinwatch.com/ .  Better safe than sorry I suppose?  Wink  Great uptake b.t.w !  Cheesy

Disclaimer:  Postings of Cloud9 are only individual views of opinion and/or musings and/or hypothesisses.  On a non-authoritative, peer-to-peer public forum, you do not need permission from Cloud9 to derive your own conclusions or opinions, so please do.  Calculations and assumptions to be verified.
lizthegrey
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June 06, 2011, 05:34:37 PM
 #12

Difficulty just changed, peoples' graphs are screwed up.

He's right. Bitcoin charts calculation of network has speed is related to difficulty. After every "visible" change the calculated hash rate jumps and then settles down in a day or two. It's happen every difficulty jump. People need to use search function.

Thanks for this information!
You're welcome. P.S. she Smiley
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