If the same ratio to difficulty is maintained, the median forecast of:
Would indeed require price to be at the 46 - 50 level.
Interesting times ahead.
You can not really count on that though. A large price jump can cause a sharp increase in Difficulty weeks later, even as price is correcting downward. So, to count on an increase in price to make up for fewer blocks is a bit of a double-bind. Don't count your chickens and all that... We would all be in a more profitable position, in terms of Bitcoins, if price rose at a slower rate. But as things are now it could be years before the state of the mining art catches up with the expectations of new miners. I totally expect a lot of miners will drop off by the end of next year, and a year after that there will be a new mining renaissance that will put this one to shame.
I find your insights more interesting and thoughtful the more I read them. I've been leaning towards selling my BTC until I paid my rigs off but lately have been reconsidering. The more I learn about BTC the more I appreciate it. I can envision BTC being incredibly valuable but have a sense of great risk as well (Spidy sense!!).
I don't need the cash and can pay the electric bill with my day job.
I've heard a lot of numbers being bandied about regarding how long mining will continue....is there a definitive on this. 2 years.....20 years?