On the contrary, its actually good ASICs are coming when they are...

[GenTarkin]

I used to hate the idea of having to mine on ASICs and being forced to this type of hardware. But, thinking about it, the fact ASICs are coming .. supposedly .. pretty close to the block reward halving , potentially saves BTC.
The reason is, with the block reward halving, hardly anyone would want to mine on GPU's anymore, it would cost way too much! Diff , therefore network hashrate, would drop significantly to make up for the reward halving. When conditions like that exist, BTC becomes more vulnerable to a 51% attack.
Also, the fact theres less room for people to mine when difficulty is so low, means the struggle for power usage vs big miners & small miners .. that equilibrium is constantly fought over. So, it leaves less room for smaller players.
Since ASICs are 100x more power effeciency, this leaves room for a substantial increase in the amount of miners being able to run this type of hardware(50x considering reward halving) without hitting a power consumption ceiling .. meaning still being quite profitable.
This also means the hashrate of the network, of course as we all know, is substantially increased. Meaning a more concrete network infrastructer for BTC. The only risk is who gets their ASIC's first and what hashrate that is compared to the rest of the network till other people start getting them. (hopefully that wont lead to a 51% attack, in the wrong hands it could =( ).
I dont know how halving of reward will affect the market rate, but I dont think it will by much after the panic / hype settles.
Its nice to think the value would double when reward halving happens but .. I highly doubt that would be the case.
As BTC gains more ACTUAL demand rather than just mining speculation, the less the price of BTC becomes effected by the mining side of things.
Anyways, those are my 2 cents on the whole ASIC / reward halving situation. Comments welcome =)

[Stephen Gornick]

hardly anyone would want to mine on GPU's anymore, it would cost way too much! Diff , therefore network hashrate, would drop significantly to make up for the reward halving.

Well, those who mine on GPUs and pay for electricity average rates or higher would mostly be forced to drop out.

When they drop out, the difficulty would drop.

That lower difficulty will make it so others who pay a lower rate (e.g., up to $0.07 per kWh) for electricity can continue mining at a profit after the halving event.

When conditions like that exist, BTC becomes more vulnerable to a 51% attack.

The reason we are currently at 24 Thash/s is not because that is the minimal level necessary to protect the Bitcoin network from a 51% attack, it is because with bitcoins issued at the rate of nearly $3 million USD worth each month, 25 Thash/s was the level of hardware acquisition that occurred from miners competing.

Is the bitcoin network just as protected from a 51% attack with a total of 12 Thash/s?   Probably.

Since ASICs are 100x more power effeciency, this leaves room for a substantial increase in the amount of miners being able to run this type of hardware(50x considering reward halving) without hitting a power consumption ceiling .. meaning still being quite profitable.

Yes, the power consumption limits that were the upper ceiling for "hobbyist" and relatively "small-time" miners is gone with ASICs.  

(hopefully that wont lead to a 51% attack, in the wrong hands it could =( ).

Economically it doesn't make sense for someone to invest the millions of dollars in ASIC hardware to harm bitcoin or to double spend (which will harm bitcoin).  Not all actions are for economic reasons.  Having many ASICs distributed among many miners is the countering force.  The hash rate isn't busting out anywhere and at least two manufacturers now are claiming "real soon".

We'll know how this all pans out "real soon" I guess.

[Hawkix]

The good think about ASICs is that they cannot be resold for other purpose like GPUs. So, anyone who invested in ASICs, he will use them all the time .. regardless of difficulty or Bitcoin price. This will bring some new stability to the market and mining volume.

[Endgame]

I don't see it as a good or bad thing, it is simply change. As with all change, we have to adapt or risk being left behind. But as you say there are definitely some advantages to ASIC mining. One of the main ones I see is allowing profitable bitcoin mining in a larger range of countries, rather than just those places with comparatively low electricity rates. It is also better for the environment, with less electricity being wasted.

[Jaw3bmasters]

*

All seems right.

From a foreclosure point of view, it's good bitcoin will have dedicated hardware rather than paying rent in a GPU hostel somewhere.

[Fcx35x10]

also i think botnet would be obsolete once asic hit  

[chewie]

I won't cringe so hard when looking at my utility bill once ASICs are released.  I'll barely be covering utility bills with the block halving.

[GenTarkin]

The good think about ASICs is that they cannot be resold for other purpose like GPUs. So, anyone who invested in ASICs, he will use them all the time .. regardless of difficulty or Bitcoin price. This will bring some new stability to the market and mining volume.

Actually, this is false. If diff hits the power consumption ceiling between miners. ASICs will become obselete w/ each new ASIC generation released. This leaves older gen ASICs unusable by those without free elec. Meaning, they become worth, effectively, nothing.

[Hawkix]

The good think about ASICs is that they cannot be resold for other purpose like GPUs. So, anyone who invested in ASICs, he will use them all the time .. regardless of difficulty or Bitcoin price. This will bring some new stability to the market and mining volume.

Actually, this is false. If diff hits the power consumption ceiling between miners. ASICs will become obselete w/ each new ASIC generation released. This leaves older gen ASICs unusable by those without free elec. Meaning, they become worth, effectively, nothing.

For the ASIC manufacturers, they will not be pushed into new masks and gate processes, they will simply sell the existing cheap-made chips for less money. They will add more chips per board and sell the board for the same amount of money or even less. This will not lower the consumption.

Of course, there could be new generations, but I doubt the speedup or consumption will be of an magnitude better. The same holds for CPUs, the new generation is about 1.5x better, generally.

And, if some miner will feel that his ASIC no more earns money, but burns them in electricity bills, he will try as best as he can to sell it - to someone with cheaper electricity. But the hashing power will not turn off (as it will happen with GPUs).

[giszmo]

(hopefully that wont lead to a 51% attack, in the wrong hands it could =( ).

Economically it doesn't make sense for someone to invest the millions of dollars in ASIC hardware to harm bitcoin or to double spend (which will harm bitcoin).  Not all actions are for economic reasons.  Having many ASICs distributed among many miners is the countering force.  The hash rate isn't busting out anywhere and at least two manufacturers now are claiming "real soon".

We'll know how this all pans out "real soon" I guess.

My biggest fear for bitcoin as a whole, is a 51% attack the day one or two of these ASICS companies declare to start shipping "today". A friendly swat visiting them to have a closer look a their pretty toys.

These damn days on which hardware worth a 51% attack sits in one room ready to be snatched on "legal" grounds could really be the challenging days of bitcoin.

[Fcx35x10]

The halving of the block rewards is raising some issues as well. So much drama ....

[crazy_rabbit]

The good think about ASICs is that they cannot be resold for other purpose like GPUs. So, anyone who invested in ASICs, he will use them all the time .. regardless of difficulty or Bitcoin price. This will bring some new stability to the market and mining volume.

Actually, this is false. If diff hits the power consumption ceiling between miners. ASICs will become obselete w/ each new ASIC generation released. This leaves older gen ASICs unusable by those without free elec. Meaning, they become worth, effectively, nothing.

Or they will jump on Terracoin, which is just a new chain of bitcoin and hash that. OR something else. There is something always to hash. But of course- if it will be worth anything is another question. :-)

[GenTarkin]

So, despite diff and despite reward halving....
Im still somehow profitable @ normal pps rates.....
I was totally surprised by this, be it, its not by much. But, WOW!
I mine w/ just GPU's

[Stephen Gornick]

Im still somehow profitable @ normal pps rates.....

I'ld like to see that calculation (or I'ld be happy to run the numbers myself.)

What is your cost of electricity per kWh?  What hardware (e.g., what GPUs specifically)?

[kokojie]

So, despite diff and despite reward halving....
Im still somehow profitable @ normal pps rates.....
I was totally surprised by this, be it, its not by much. But, WOW!
I mine w/ just GPU's

if you have cheap/free electricity, that's not a surprise.

[GenTarkin]

Im still somehow profitable @ normal pps rates.....

I'ld like to see that calculation (or I'ld be happy to run the numbers myself.)

What is your cost of electricity per kWh?  What hardware (e.g., what GPUs specifically)?

10.5c/kwh  .. 3300mh @ 1120watts

[Stephen Gornick]

I'ld like to see that calculation (or I'ld be happy to run the numbers myself.)

What is your cost of electricity per kWh?  What hardware (e.g., what GPUs specifically)?

10.5c/kwh  .. 3300mh @ 1120watts

You are producing 3.3 Ghash/s and only consuming 1,120W?  That's atypical, at best.

I mine w/ just GPU's

Not just any old GPUs, and not without a lot of tweaking to get those numbers, I suspect.

Well, congrats -- you get about another 8 BTC worth of profit for the the next month before this happens:

If the foundry keeps up 4 layers a week from now on, it means ASICMINEr should receive the chips just before Christmas, so we could theoretically (hopefully) have something online before the end of the year....hashing the first ASIC mined block ever

then following that:

(~2-3 weeks)
First 6TH/s online
(~2-3 weeks)
Second 6TH/s online
(~0-4 weeks)
50TH/s of chips out
(~2-3 weeks, ~2-5 weeks if location changes)
Part or all of the 50TH/s online

[smoothie]

blah...

When are ASICs coming?

Oh right sometime after today? lol

[bobitza]

But, thinking about it, the fact ASICs are coming .. supposedly .. pretty close to the block reward halving , potentially saves BTC.
The reason is, with the block reward halving, hardly anyone would want to mine on GPU's anymore, it would cost way too much! Diff , therefore network hashrate, would drop significantly to make up for the reward halving. When conditions like that exist, BTC becomes more vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Makes you think, doesn't it?

That means in 4 years we'll experience another hardware revolution, right?