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Author Topic: The economic model behind Bitcoin is flawed  (Read 14056 times)
deisik (OP)
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November 30, 2015, 06:55:14 PM
 #41

Well I think that overall, money is defined as a form of currency with which you can buy items or services, however, there are more specific definitions like Mike Maloney's "Money is a store of value" and Google's "a current medium of exchange in the form of coins and banknotes; coins and banknotes collectively" definition

Regarding the definition of money as a store of value, this definition looks lopsided and incomplete, since any good money is necessarily a store of value, but not every good store of value is necessarily money. Real estate is considered to be a good store of value, but can it be used as an efficient means of exchange? Therefore, Bitcoin can potentially be a good store of value (which is questionable, though), but this alone still won't make it into money...

Some make it into hell, some make it into heaven

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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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December 01, 2015, 01:59:00 AM
 #42


Then Bitcoin is not money, but just a speculative asset. Like many others out there. Or a Ponzi, since it neither functions as a currency (a medium of exchange) nor has any value of its own (yeah, I know nothing has value of its own)...

That, simply put, sums it up

Bitcoin is not traditional money, but some kind of value abstraction far superior than money. The legacy money concept barely made it out of the boarder of a country: When you enter another country, your fiat money suddenly become useless without exchange, while with bitcoin you might still able to find someone accept it in another country without exchange

Why most of the country do not accept foreign currencies domestically? Because all the governments know that fiat money is a taxation on domestic people, it will be stupid to allow some foreign government to tax their people

However, bitcoin is similar to gold, it is wealth, not taxation, so governments might eventually allow it to circulate, since this will bring wealth into their country

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December 01, 2015, 03:24:39 AM
 #43

Well I think that overall, money is defined as a form of currency with which you can buy items or services, however, there are more specific definitions like Mike Maloney's "Money is a store of value" and Google's "a current medium of exchange in the form of coins and banknotes; coins and banknotes collectively" definition

Regarding the definition of money as a store of value, this definition looks lopsided and incomplete, since any good money is necessarily a store of value, but not every good store of value is necessarily money. Real estate is considered to be a good store of value, but can it be used as an efficient means of exchange? Therefore, Bitcoin can potentially be a good store of value (which is questionable, though), but this alone still won't make it into money...

Some make it into hell, some make it into heaven
This is true, I didn't phrase it very well.

What do you think is most likely to happen to Bitcoin over the long term? Will it, as you say, make it into hell or will it make it into heaven?
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December 01, 2015, 03:46:02 AM
 #44

One of the hardest things to really accept is that because Bitcoin has a finite supply, and the emission of said supply is decentralised, it would be difficult to ever maintain any real stability of it. Monetary policy and government intervention is actually what safe-gaurds most people's money, as well as keep it relatively stable to the extent that we can price things in fiat without having to de-base it and change the price of things all the time.


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December 01, 2015, 07:38:57 AM
 #45

and who said that bitcoin is not fuction as a currency? i can buy stuff with bitcoin, so it can be used as a currency and not only as investment, yes the primarely purpose for now is an investment

but the same was true for every other kind of money, when they first started, bitcoin is still young, not so much accepted, so it can not be really considered a means of payment for now, because of people hindering its adoption or not adopting it, not because it can not fulfil that role
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December 01, 2015, 09:33:24 AM
 #46

One of the hardest things to really accept is that because Bitcoin has a finite supply, and the emission of said supply is decentralised, it would be difficult to ever maintain any real stability of it. Monetary policy and government intervention is actually what safe-gaurds most people's money, as well as keep it relatively stable to the extent that we can price things in fiat without having to de-base it and change the price of things all the time.



Do you not think that monetary policy and government intervention is what makes storing your money in fiat more dangerous? At the drop of a hat they can flood economies with trillions of dollars all under the name of 'quantitative easing'......everyone suffers then.
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December 01, 2015, 01:57:25 PM
 #47

One of the hardest things to really accept is that because Bitcoin has a finite supply, and the emission of said supply is decentralised, it would be difficult to ever maintain any real stability of it. Monetary policy and government intervention is actually what safe-gaurds most people's money, as well as keep it relatively stable to the extent that we can price things in fiat without having to de-base it and change the price of things all the time.



The price stability of daily consumption is maintained automatically by itself, a change in money supply seldom affect it. A good example is the Ruble crash against dollar, it crashed more than 50% during 2 years, however the price domestically in Russian did not change too much. Another good example is QE, even after FED printed 5x more money, the price of daily consumption still seems stable

Even government is doing nothing, the price of daily consumption will maintain their level automatically and slowly get cheaper and cheaper due to advance in production technology, what banks do is to print more and more and added money work as a tax applied to everyone. Humans are adaptive, you tax them harder, they will work harder

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December 01, 2015, 02:30:23 PM
Last edit: December 01, 2015, 02:58:07 PM by deisik
 #48

One of the hardest things to really accept is that because Bitcoin has a finite supply, and the emission of said supply is decentralised, it would be difficult to ever maintain any real stability of it. Monetary policy and government intervention is actually what safe-gaurds most people's money, as well as keep it relatively stable to the extent that we can price things in fiat without having to de-base it and change the price of things all the time.

The price stability of daily consumption is maintained automatically by itself, a change in money supply seldom affect it. A good example is the Ruble crash against dollar, it crashed more than 50% during 2 years, however the price domestically in Russian did not change too much. Another good example is QE, even after FED printed 5x more money, the price of daily consumption still seems stable

It was your fatal mistake that you wrote this here, wtf. You can rest assured that the prices for a lot of the domestically produced goods in Russia (foods before all) did increase, and for some goods prices even more than doubled during the last 2 years. In fact, the crash of the ruble happened within just a few months from around 33-34 up to 70-75 in the summer of 2014. It was a kind of devaluation. Later it retraced back to 50-55, where it had been till oil fell below 50 dollars per barrel...

Now I spend on food twice as much than I spent a few years ago, but my taste preferences and food intake didn't change a lot, lol

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December 01, 2015, 02:54:11 PM
Last edit: December 02, 2015, 11:08:53 AM by deisik
 #49

What do you think is most likely to happen to Bitcoin over the long term? Will it, as you say, make it into hell or will it make it into heaven?

Bitcoin will hardly be used for trading real goods in any significant amounts given its monetary model, which encourages saving and profiteering. No one will be selling anything worthy in exchange for it on commercial scale. This seems to be pretty clear by now. We should also take into account the resources that Bitcoin now requires just to support its infrastructure ticking. As I said before, I'm not very knowledgeable about its technical aspects, but it seems that it is very inefficient from a technical point of view. So it is not even guaranteed that it won't hit the wall after the coming halving...

Ultimately, it will most certainly switch into a zombie mode and end up in limbo (neither here nor there)

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December 01, 2015, 11:26:38 PM
 #50

I *think* what you are trying to say is that miners are incentivised to hold (save) bitcoin,
thus viewing bitcoin as a monetary store of value. The paradox is that the value of
bitcoin to society is its use in trade (to simplify somewhat) and that no coin can
claim both these features. 
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December 02, 2015, 03:56:29 AM
 #51

One of the hardest things to really accept is that because Bitcoin has a finite supply, and the emission of said supply is decentralised, it would be difficult to ever maintain any real stability of it. Monetary policy and government intervention is actually what safe-gaurds most people's money, as well as keep it relatively stable to the extent that we can price things in fiat without having to de-base it and change the price of things all the time.

The price stability of daily consumption is maintained automatically by itself, a change in money supply seldom affect it. A good example is the Ruble crash against dollar, it crashed more than 50% during 2 years, however the price domestically in Russian did not change too much. Another good example is QE, even after FED printed 5x more money, the price of daily consumption still seems stable

It was your fatal mistake that you wrote this here, wtf. You can rest assured that the prices for a lot of the domestically produced goods in Russia (foods before all) did increase, and for some goods prices even more than doubled during the last 2 years. In fact, the crash of the ruble happened within just a few months from around 33-34 up to 70-75 in the summer of 2014. It was a kind of devaluation. Later it retraced back to 50-55, where it had been till oil fell below 50 dollars per barrel...

Now I spend on food twice as much than I spent a few years ago, but my taste preferences and food intake didn't change a lot, lol

Well, I'm not living in Russia, just passed by Moscow airport a few times and did not discover a big change in price. But in Sweden where I'm living, its currency crashed 30% against USD, I can observe that many things just get cheaper, while some high end food get more expensive, like well processed sea food and luxury foods

So, I have never observed any clear relationship between the money supply and the price of food since there are so many different budget shops that you can get cheap food here. A meal in restaurant however get higher and higher price, but I guess that is due to the increase of the value of lunch that companies are allowed to deduct from income tax, it rose from 50 kr in 90s to close to 100 kr. now


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December 02, 2015, 07:23:16 AM
Last edit: December 02, 2015, 03:31:06 PM by deisik
 #52

I *think* what you are trying to say is that miners are incentivised to hold (save) bitcoin,
thus viewing bitcoin as a monetary store of value. The paradox is that the value of
bitcoin to society is its use in trade (to simplify somewhat) and that no coin can
claim both these features.  

Not miners, just holders. Miners nowadays have to pay huge electricity bills with fiat, so they necessarily sell at least some part of their mined coins, so the coins end up in someone else's hands. Regarding the functions of money being antagonistic, I explained this in another thread:

How are the functions of money being a store of value and means of exchange mutually exclusive?

To be a good store of value money needs to be appreciating (the more the better). Conversely, to be a good means of exchange money should be depreciating at a slow (and low) but constant rate. The former contributes to hoarding while the latter to spending. Hoarding and spending don't live well together and are, in fact, mutually exclusive. In other words, you can't hoard and spend the same (amount of) money at the same time...

But you are welcome with your own take on this

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December 02, 2015, 09:28:23 AM
 #53

What if (yes, I said if) the satoshi becomes worth more than $10 each? How will we buy cheap 1-dollar goods? Will the bitcoin community decide to use a smaller denomination of bitcoin?
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December 02, 2015, 10:57:18 AM
Last edit: December 02, 2015, 05:25:36 PM by deisik
 #54

What if (yes, I said if) the satoshi becomes worth more than $10 each? How will we buy cheap 1-dollar goods? Will the bitcoin community decide to use a smaller denomination of bitcoin?

We don't buy any goods for bitcoins now in the first place (1 dollar or whatever), so why do you think anyone would be selling anything if one satoshi becomes "worth" $10? It is just like two people selling to each other a few satoshis for a few thousand dollars and then claiming that 1 BTC is worth 1,000,000 dollars

This is the illusion of wealth and false expectations at their bests

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December 02, 2015, 05:18:39 PM
 #55

Yes it is. Only keynesian model and negative interest model have succeed in the past.
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December 02, 2015, 05:28:31 PM
 #56

What things do you think they forget?

Short version, it (the economic model behind Bitcoin) disfavors trade and production, and thereby undermines the reason for money (Bitcoin) existence as such

Long version, let's assume we have an economy that produces apples and oranges. Say, I have an apple and you have an orange, and we have decided to sell them to each other. We could just exchange them directly, but we decided to use bitcoins to facilitate the trade. Thereby we emitted two bitcoins and agreed not to mint any more bitcoins (the 21 million cap). In this way you have one bitcoin and I have one bitcoin, and we set the price for apples and oranges at a bitcoin per piece. So far so good. In a short while, I produced an extra apple, while you produced nothing. Now we have two apples and one orange in the economy, but we still have only two bitcoins, thereby bitcoins appreciate in value since we can trade for bitcoins only. I don't want apples but need oranges whereas you need apples and want to trade in oranges. In this way, you can demand two apples for your bitcoin, which represents your orange, while I can still get just one orange. Somehow you didn't produce anything but nevertheless became richer (can buy two apples instead of one) while I worked hard to produce an extra apple but actually became poorer (only two apples now allow me to buy the same one orange)...

It is obvious that I will shrink from trading my apples for bitcoins, and unless trading makes me richer, I won't produce either (since I don't need apples)

Wrong, it would simply cause price deflation.

You're so inundated by current economic model you can't comprehend alternative trains of thought. That's why you can't reason this simple example.

Oh, next you will tell me why deflation is bad.

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December 02, 2015, 05:31:02 PM
 #57

We've had this type of discussion on bitcointalk over and over again over the last few years, and I sometimes wonder how people are obviously unable to use the search here or just look it up on the bitcoin wiki, for f***'s sake.

I am always amused by seeing even grow-up economists who should know better failing to understand that
there is no such thing as a limit to the money supply
in bitcoin at all.
Any first-grader in economics can explain the difference between a limited monetary base and a limited money supply.

So, basically, you're riding the dead horse of a long invalidated argument here.

Yeah, well, I'm gonna go build my own blockchain. With blackjack and hookers! In fact forget the blockchain.
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December 02, 2015, 05:52:00 PM
 #58

I believe this is what the inventor envisioned when capping the coins:

Suppose that a precious metal such as gold becomes a society's money, and a certain weight of gold becomes the currency unit in which all prices and assets are reckoned. Then, so long as the society remains on this pure gold or silver "standard," there will probably be only gradual annual increases in the supply of money, from the output of gold mines. The supply of gold is severely limited, and it is costly to mine further gold; and the great durability of gold means that any annual output will constitute a small portion of the total gold stock accumulated over the centuries. The currency will remain of roughly stable value; in a progressing economy, the increased annual production of goods will more than offset the gradual increase in the money stock. The result will be a gradual fall in the price level, an increase in the purchasing power of the currency unit or gold ounce, year after year. The gently falling price level will mean a steady annual rise in the purchasing power of the dollar or franc, encouraging the saving of money and investment in future production. A rising output and falling price level signifies a steady increase in the standard of living for each person in society. Typically, the cost of living falls steadily, while money wage rates remain the same, meaning that "real" wage rates, or the living standards of every worker, increase steadily year by year. We are now so conditioned by permanent price inflation that the idea of prices falling every year is difficult to grasp. And yet, prices generally fell every year from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the latter part of the eighteenth century until 1940, with the exception of periods of major war, when the governments inflated the money supply radically and drove up prices, after which they would gradually fall once more. We have to realize that falling prices did not mean depression, since costs were falling due to increased productivity, so that profits were not sinking. If we look at the spectacular drop in prices (in real even more than in money terms) in recent years in such particularly booming fields as computers, calculators, and TV sets, we can see that falling prices by no means have to connote depression.

But let us suppose that in this idyll of prosperity, sound money, and successful monetary calculation, a serpent appears in Eden: the temptation to counterfeit, to fashion a near-valueless object so that it would fool people into thinking it was the money-commodity. It is instructive to trace the result. Counterfeiting creates a problem to the extent that it is "successful," i.e., to the extent that the counterfeit is so well crafted that it is not found out.

 Suppose that Joe Doakes and his merry men have invented a perfect counterfeit: under a gold standard, a brass or plastic object that would look exactly like a gold coin, or, in the present paper money standard, a $10 bill that exactly simulates a $10 Federal Reserve Note. What would happen?
In the first place, the aggregate money supply of the country would increase by the amount counterfeited; equally important, the new money will appear first in the hands of the counterfeiters themselves. Counterfeiting, in short, involves a twofold process: (1) increasing the total supply of money, thereby driving up the prices of goods and services and driving down the purchasing power of the money-unit; and (2) changing the distribution of income and wealth, by putting disproportionately more money into the hands of the counterfeiters.

The first part of the process, increasing the total money supply in the country, was the focus of the "quantity theory" of the British classical economists from David Hume to Ricardo, and continues to be the focus of Milton Friedman and the monetarist "Chicago school." David Hume, in order to demonstrate the inflationary and non-productive effect of paper money, in effect postulated what I like to call the "Angel Gabriel" model, in which the Angel, after hearing pleas for more money, magically doubled each person's stock of money overnight. (In this case, the Angel Gabriel would be the "counterfeiter," albeit for benevolent motives.) It is clear that while everyone would be euphoric from their seeming doubling of monetary wealth, society would in no way be better off: for there would be no increase in capital or productivity or supply of goods. As people rushed out and spent the new money, the only impact would be an approximate doubling of all prices, and the purchasing power of the dollar or franc would be cut in half, with no social benefit being conferred. An increase of money can only dilute the effectiveness of each unit of money. Milton Friedman's more modern though equally magical version is that of his "helicopter effect," in which he postulates that the annual increase of money created by the Federal Reserve is showered on each person proportionately to his current money stock by magical governmental helicopters.

While Hume's analysis is perceptive and correct so far as it goes, it leaves out the vital redistributive effect. Friedman's "helicopter effect" seriously distorts the analysis by being so constructed that redistributive effects are ruled out from the very beginning. The point is that while we can assume benign motives for the Angel Gabriel, we cannot make the same assumption for the counterfeiting government or the Federal Reserve. Indeed, for any earthly counterfeiter, it would be difficult to see the point of counterfeiting if each person is to receive the new money proportionately.

In real life, then, the very point of counterfeiting is to constitute a process, a process of transmitting new money from one pocket to another, and not the result of a magical and equi-proportionate expansion of money in everyone's pocket simultaneously. Whether counterfeiting is in the form of making brass or plastic coins that simulate gold, or of printing paper money to look like that of the government, counterfeiting is always a process in which the counterfeiter gets the new money first. This process was encapsulated in an old New Yorker cartoon, in which a group of counterfeiters are watching the first $10 bill emerge from their home printing press. One remarks: "Boy, is retail spending in the neighborhood in for a shot in the arm!"

And indeed it was. The first people who get the new money are the counterfeiters, which they then use to buy various goods and services. The second receivers of the new money are the retailers who sell those goods to the counterfeiters. And on and on the new money ripples out through the system, going from one pocket or till to another. As it does so, there is an immediate redistribution effect. For first the counterfeiters, then the retailers, etc., have new money and monetary income which they use to bid up goods and services, increasing their demand and raising the prices of the goods that they purchase. But as prices of goods begin to rise in response to the higher quantity of money, those who haven't yet received the new money find the prices of the goods they buy have gone up, while their own selling prices or incomes have not risen. In short, the early receivers of the new money in this market chain of events gain at the expense of those who receive the money toward the end of the chain, and still worse losers are the people (e.g., those on fixed incomes such as annuities, interest, or pensions) who never receive the new money at all. Monetary inflation, then, acts as a hidden "tax" by which the early receivers expropriate (i.e., gain at the expense of) the late receivers. And of course since the very earliest receiver of the new money is the counterfeiter, the counterfeiter's gain is the greatest. This tax is particularly insidious because it is hidden, because few people understand the processes of money and banking, and because it is all too easy to blame the rising prices, or "price inflation," caused by the monetary inflation on greedy capitalists, speculators, wild-spending consumers, or whatever social group is the easiest to denigrate. Obviously, too, it is to the interest of the counterfeiters to distract attention from their own crucial role by denouncing any and all other groups and institutions as responsible for the price inflation.

The inflation process is particularly insidious and destructive because everyone enjoys the feeling of having more money, while they generally complain about the consequences of more money, namely higher prices. But since there is an inevitable time lag between the stock of money increasing and its consequence in rising prices, and since the public has little knowledge of monetary economics, it is all too easy to fool it into placing the blame on shoulders far more visible than those of the counterfeiters.

The big error of all quantity theorists, from the British classicists to Milton Freidman, is to assume that money is only a "veil," and that increases in the quantity of money only have influence on the price level, or on the purchasing power of the money unit. On the contrary, it is one of the notable contributions of "Austrian School" economists and their predecessors, such as the early-eighteenth-century Irish French economist Richard Cantillon, that, in addition to this quantitative, aggregative effect, an increase in the money supply also changes the distribution of income and wealth. The ripple effect also alters the structure of relative prices, and therefore of the kinds and quantities of goods that will be produced, since the counterfeiters and other early receivers will have different preferences and spending patterns from the late receivers who are "taxed" by the earlier receivers. Furthermore, these changes of income distribution, spending, relative prices, and production will be permanent and will not simply disappear, as the quantity theorists blithely assume, when the effects of the increase in the money supply will have worked themselves out.

In sum, the Austrian insight holds that counterfeiting will have far more unfortunate consequences for the economy than simple inflation of the price level. There will be other, and permanent, distortions of the economy away from the free market pattern that responds to consumers and property-rights holders in the free economy. This brings us to an important aspect of counterfeiting which should not be overlooked. In addition to its more narrowly economic distortion and unfortunate consequences, counterfeiting gravely cripples the moral and property rights foundation that lies at the base of any free-market economy.

Thus, consider a free-market society where gold is the money. In such a society, one can acquire money in only three ways: (a) by mining more gold; (b) by selling a good or service in exchange for gold owned by someone else; or (c) by receiving the gold as a voluntary gift or bequest from some other owner of gold. Each of these methods operates within a principle of strict defense of everyone's right to his private property. But say a counterfeiter appears on the scene. By creating fake gold coins he is able to acquire money in a fraudulent and coercive way, and with which he can enter the market to bid resources away from legitimate owners of gold. In that way, he robs current owners of gold just as surely, and even more massively, than if he burglarized their homes or safes. For this way, without actually breaking and entering the property of others, he can insidiously steal the fruits of their productive labor, and do so at the expense of all holders of money, and especially the later receivers of the new money.

Counterfeiting, therefore, is inflationary, redistributive, distorts the economic system, and amounts to stealthy and insidious robbery and expropriation of all legitimate property-owners in society.


pages 20-27
https://mises.org/library/case-against-fed-0

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December 02, 2015, 06:00:34 PM
 #59

Alright so here's the thing with the maximum value of Bitcoin that I've been mulling over;

Say we reach a point where each Satoshi is worth $10, why would we not simple end up buying more things in bulk? If a pack of gum costs $1 or $2 now, why not buy 5/10 of them? Chances are you'll use more in the future, and it just prevents you from having to run out to get more. Would this not also encourage higher-quality products since it would be borderline impossible to purchase anything for <$10?

This would have more implications for low-wage workers, such as many workers in China, however this might help to increase their quality of life at the same time, since they have to be paid a minimum of $10 per day, yet they might become jobless for that same reason.

The market cap for Bitcoin would be $21 Trillion at $10/Satoshi, unless I can't do math, and so it would be approximately equal to the current monetary supply, meaning we wouldn't necessarily see a difference aside from not being able to buy goods and services individually for <$10.

Hypothetically you can work around $10/Satoshi by having stores you shop at have a credit system, or similar, where they only charge you when you spend over $10, after any sort of period of time. This has it's own implications, however one could ignore those for right now, for the sake of the argument.

I'm probably making a bunch of mistakes, I don't have a degree in economics so I won't have all the models and ideas properly set out. If there are any corrections or additions you want to comment on, feel free to reply. I'm care less about being right than I care about learning new things.
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December 02, 2015, 06:12:41 PM
 #60

I'm probably making a bunch of mistakes, I don't have a degree in economics so I won't have all the models and ideas properly set out. If there are any corrections or additions you want to comment on, feel free to reply. I'm care less about being right than I care about learning new things.

All your logic and calculations are based on the assumption that Bitcoin is actually used as a means of payment while it is not. Its exchange rate can be whatever large ("only sky is the limit" and "to the moon"), but you won't buy anything with it. You won't even be able to convert any decent amount of bitcoins into fiat without crashing the price. The true exchange rate should be calculated by the amount of goods sold for Bitcoin...

Anything beyond this is pure speculation

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