Need help working out my returns

[The Koolio]

Ok my 5870 system is due this friday, however, i estimate itll take 20 days to pay back at a set difficulty. Can someone help me figure out exactly how long a £1000 / $1500 system that pulls 1.7 ghash will take to pay off including the future increases in difficulty, assuming it starts working this friday. Reason I ask is no matter how much i read on this difficulty still hurts my brain lol! Assuming this system pays its self off within a few weeks i would also like to know how much it could make daily in say 3 months and 6 months.

Thanks to whoever helps, whoever provides the best and most informative answer will get a bitcoin once the server is up. (theres also a possibility of creating 10 servers at 17 g hash if it works out profitable enough)

[DigitalAsh]

should be a month at current difficulty

Difficulty Factor 
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) 
Exchange Rate ($/฿) 



 Coins Dollars
per Day ฿3.01 $55.75
per Week ฿21.98 $406.54
per Month ฿91.62 $1,694.94

[DigitalAsh]

sry about that, here's a screen


beyond that I'm not sure there's any real way to say, I don't think there's a reliable way to say how much difficulty will increase/exchange rate will change etc.

http://i55.tinypic.com/mcu1zt.jpg


lol I'm new to this as well, if I understand correctly price has usually gone up to match difficulty so hopefully it won't matter much

[Freakin]

Ok my 5870 system is due this friday, however, i estimate itll take 20 days to pay back at a set difficulty. Can someone help me figure out exactly how long a £1000 / $1500 system that pulls 1.7 ghash will take to pay off including the future increases in difficulty, assuming it starts working this friday. Reason I ask is no matter how much i read on this difficulty still hurts my brain lol! Assuming this system pays its self off within a few weeks i would also like to know how much it could make daily in say 3 months and 6 months.

Thanks to whoever helps, whoever provides the best and most informative answer will get a bitcoin once the server is up. (theres also a possibility of creating 10 servers at 17 g hash if it works out profitable enough)

You gotta do the math yourself in a spreadsheet... people have made it very easy for you

Use a simple BTC calculator to determine that 1.5GH/s at current difficulty is about
฿3.01/day

Assume difficulty is going to increase again in 10 days from today (~6/16)
So for 10 days=฿30.1

After that, assume a ~35% minimum difficulty increase = ~737,500 difficulty

That reduces you to
฿2.32/day = ฿23.2/10 days

After another 35% increase
฿1.72/day = ฿17.2/10 days

So if you brought a new 1700mh/s mining rig online TODAY and ran it nonstop for 30 days assuming 35% difficult increase, you'd be looking at ฿70.5 after 30 days.  At current exchange rate, that is ~$1300.

Historically, price has increased on pace with difficulty

[whitecrow]

if your not confirm with calculation i will do it for you and get 1 BTC i love math

like the other 2 replys i use this side http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

but with 2 exeptions:
1. i take a BTC -> USD exchange rate of 13 $ (so your on the save side if the price may fall
2. i will take a Difficulty increas of 20% ea 2 Weeks

(i know its a lit high but why not to be on the save side)

if you start friday you get 1 week on this diffikulty the calc says

1. Week: per Week   ฿21.98   $285.68

so the difficulty will increas to: 680000
so you get per week

2.3. Week: per Week   ฿18.31   $238.07

and again the increase to: 816000

3.4. Week: per Week   ฿15.26   $198.39

5.6. Week: per Week   ฿12.72   $165.32

7.8. Week: per Week   ฿10.60   $137.77

after 8 weeks rufly 2 month you get: 1461 $

so this is the time if something goes wronk like the Dificulty is increasing 20% each 2 Weeks and the price per BTC is droping to 13 $

so if you assume that the next 4 weeks the price for 1 BTC is constant 18$ you will get 1648$ and got something for energy consumtion.

hope it helped if you didnt understand everything you can ask me (via pm or here)

hope it helped

WhiteCrow

[bcpokey]

Sigh @ the above. Spreadsheets are awful and lies. Freakin is the closest to the mark though. The problem is that there is nothing static about bitcoin. The next difficulty increase will almost certainly be way way more than 35%. People are jumping into mining in droves as they see magical money fountains lying before them. The hashrate is likely to jump significantly, my guess would be > 50%.

Will the price of bitcoin jump as well? My guess is no, not for the next difficulty increase at any rate, as it has already jumped 100% in value. I can only guess, but I'd imagine something like $20 to be the max it will be at come next difficulty. People will see a huge difficulty jump and stop buying new rigs as they see their profits dropping, leading to a slowing of difficulty increases. Then maybe another yahoo article or google news article will come out about bitcoin spiking the price again, hard to say.

I'd look to 1.5months - 2months to repay your rig as an optimistic estimate. If you pay it off sooner something good happened, if you pay it off later consider that a risk of bitcoining, if you don't ever pay it off, well that's a risk of new opportunity.

[lemonginger]

you all do know that you are talking stupid crazy money when you are talking about completely paying for equipment (that still has value and can be resold) in a few months and after that turning pure profit.

BTW: What mining setup is $1500 that can hit 1.7 ghash???

[Jack of Diamonds]

sry about that, here's a screen


beyond that I'm not sure there's any real way to say, I don't think there's a reliable way to say how much difficulty will increase/exchange rate will change etc.




lol I'm new to this as well, if I understand correctly price has usually gone up to match difficulty so hopefully it won't matter much

The estimate is safe as long as price keeps up with difficulty. So around $1.6k per month is reasonable.

If it doesn't, you have to adapt or quit mining. But I suspect your rig will make at least $1k, more if price will rise.

[The Koolio]

you all do know that you are talking stupid crazy money when you are talking about completely paying for equipment (that still has value and can be resold) in a few months and after that turning pure profit.

BTW: What mining setup is $1500 that can hit 1.7 ghash???

Cheers guys, a couple of you will get some coins once the rigs up. Im planning a quad 5870 setup, I currently run one at 440 so expect around 1500-1700. As for the dollar rates, Im currently favouring britcoin as Im getting near to $23 per coin so im happy with some calculations around the $13 mark

[kr105]

Holy toolbars batman!

[DigitalAsh]

Holy toolbars batman!

LOL I know, it's my dad's comp and I swear no matter how many times I remove them he's got a few new ones to replace them. He's lucky he gave me life because otherwise I'd have to start charging for all the pc help they need lol