Here's how mass adoption plays out in my opinion

[hector3115]

Banks and financial institutions finally realize that the most robust and secure blockchain is the bitcoin blockchain and begin using it as the backbone of our financial system.  SO this gives Bitcoin value as the token that rewards miners to secure the blockchain.  

Once Bitcoin has a clear value and purpose, wealthy investors will  start to park cash in Bitcoin as a store of value due to it's deflationary nature.  Then more and more people will store money in Bitcoin as a replacement for gold.  

Then merchants will start to want to make it easier for people to spend all of that money they have stored in Bitcoin so then the wave of merchant adoption will happen.  Then once you can spend bitcoin almost anywhere, more and more people will start to use it as their currency.  Then once the rest of the idiots who are still left see the ease of use of bitcoin and watch their fiat currencies inflating to them moon, the remaining people will switch over.

I predict that this entire cycle will take 20 years with many peaks and valleys in the price per bitcoin until then.  With halving approaching and ALL of the banks now working very hard to learn about the blockchain and bitcoin right now the price looks ready to start a new bubble.  

2016:  $1,450.00 per bitcoin
2017:  $2,200.00 per bitcoin
2020:  $7,100.00 per bitcoin
2025:  $45,000.00 per bitcoin
2030:  $225,000.00 per bitcoin
2036:  $1,700,000.00 per bitcoin

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[hector3115]

I also think that banks and financial institutions will become the largest miners of bitcoin as they do their part to ensure th security of the blockchain.

[mcplums]

Why has the price dropped in 2036? Was this a typo?

[hector3115]

Yes I fixed it.

[Denker]

Hmmm price-wise I would like to see this becoming reality. It is "a bit" optimistic but I will take it.
Regarding the banks I can not see them accepting Bitcoin in any way or see them becoming miners and supporting to secure the blockchain.
If banks to start becoming miners, damn it that should be a big big sign of alert!!

[Amph]

this look more stable than the theory of "one rich guy start a pump and average joe start investing in to ride the wave", but at the same time bitcoin and banks are not friends, and they are still very concentrated with their own blockchain

not to mention that some banks are started like in russia, which will hinder the adoption...i don't know for sure about your value estimation, but i'm also in the side of thinking that the enxt year is the right year to have a new ath

[OmegaStarScream]

I can agree for what comes to the 2016 year however I can't be sure about the others , without mentioning the fact that we are actually in a war with the banks and the media who makes Bitcoin look bad ... really bad ! So unless we win that war , we are not going anywhere if you ask me .

[hector3115]

In my scenario, banks will be significantly disrupted.  However at first they will embrace the blockchain because they can cut so much overhead and make tons of money now.  Eventually bitcoin will kill them as it should.  This might sound crazy but I foresee securing the blockchain with mining could be the only thing some of these big banks are left with.

[hector3115]

My insane prediction is that in 2036 the primary source of revenue from JP Morgan will be from bitcoin mining operations

[Mickeyb]

Your scenario looks really nice but something tells me that banks will stick with their private blockchains as long as they are working for them, as they give them most of control. They will drop their private blockchains just when they see no one is using them and consequently this no usage will be started by the ordinary people and companies which will realize how much stronger and more powerful real decentralized blockchain like Bitcoin really is, over these private, bank owned blockchains!

[Wilhelm]

If bitcoin becomes #1 currency then banks will go bankrupt.
Banks cannot provide loans on bitcoin. They need IOYs and thus fiat.
Governments can't operate without loans.
Small startups an companies neither.
Nobody can help you if you het robbed.
Nobody can force you to pay your debts.


Example in 100% bitcoin world: Terrorists or hackers could steal all the bitcoin of the US and cripple them into the stoneage.

Bitcoin has its uses but #1 currency in a human society will fail without a rigorous cultural revolution.

[hector3115]

Security will greatly improve with the rise of decentralized internet making hacking a thing of the past.

[afbitcoins]

Throughout my lifetime the worlds monetary system has been a system of unbacked debt based money. We are quite unique living in a world where money devalues constantly, generations before us used to enjoy stable prices that lasted their lifetimes.

But cracks are starting to appear in this system which is unsustainable and must end. So far they are papering over it, propping it up and trying to keep it going  but even so the day of reckoning is coming. Every country on earth is heavily indebted to banks, and the debt growing bigger and bigger in unsustainable fashion. It is impossible to pay back the debt because all the money would also disappear with it. The debt literally is our money used in day to day transactions. Stated another way the money in your bank is someones debt it is not representing an asset somewhere. It must grow because the interest on debts which have gone before is still there needing payment.

Look at all the talk today about zero interest rates not being enough! Realise what this means. They are forced into a corner, to keep it going they will need more repression, they will need negative interest rates. They will need to ban cash. Clearly this will meet huge resistance, especially when things like bitcoin exist which people can flee to.

I guess my point is that capital controls becoming more and more restrictive will make decentralised, bitcoin look more and more peachy.

We may not get a gradual migration of banks to bitcoin but a flood of people using it as the fiat system goes into death throes.

These things can happen quickly, the world was gold backed then one day in 1971 suddenly it wasn't.





 

[slojina]

We are quite unique living in a world where money devalues constantly, generations before us used to enjoy stable prices that lasted their lifetimes.<snip>

Right.
http://s12.postimg.org/5t963n34d/Capture.png
Quote post to see chart

[afbitcoins]

We are quite unique living in a world where money devalues constantly, generations before us used to enjoy stable prices that lasted their lifetimes.<snip>

Right.

Quote post to see chart

ok i grant that devaluing money currency has gone on longer than 1971, but if chart went back to the days before central banking I'm betting you would see stable prices i was referring to. Fed was created in 1913.

[zivone]

That's likely to happen if a subject about bitcoin will be included at school but anyway I look at it it's not possible. There are too many things to consider, if it's a threat to a government control especially financially, they will surely find a way of controlling it. Like maybe cutting all of your internet connections....  

[afbitcoins]

The Average Life Expectancy For A Fiat Currency Is 27 Years ... Every 30 To 40 Years The Reigning Monetary System Fails And Has To Be Retooled

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.co.uk/2011/08/average-life-expectancy-for-fiat.html

[slojina]

We are quite unique living in a world where money devalues constantly, generations before us used to enjoy stable prices that lasted their lifetimes.<snip>

Right.
http://s12.postimg.org/5t963n34d/Capture.png
Quote post to see chart

ok i grant that devaluing money currency has gone on longer than 1971, but if chart went back to the days before central banking I'm betting you would see stable prices i was referring to. Fed was created in 1913.

Not sure if joking.

By the end of 1778, Continental Currency retained only between 1/5 to 1/7 of its original face value. By 1780, Continental bills - or Continentals - were worth just 1/40th of their face value. Congress tried to reform the currency by removing the old bills from circulation and issuing new ones, but this met with little or no success. By May 1781, Continentals had become so worthless they ceased to circulate as money. Benjamin Franklin noted that the depreciation of the currency had, in effect, acted as a tax to pay for the war.[1] In the 1790s, after the ratification of the United States Constitution, Continentals could be exchanged for treasury bonds at 1% of face value.[2]

Edit:

The Average Life Expectancy For A Fiat Currency Is 27 Years ...

Without investing in a formal study, I'll hazard a guess: The average life expectancy of a cryptocurrency is about a week.
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=159.0

[afbitcoins]

This is all very interesting sidetrack but my main point is that bitcoin is a very attractive alternative for storing value when banks start imposing negative interest rates and banning cash. Which they must do in order to try and prop up their failing monetary system.
 

[afbitcoins]

This is all very interesting sidetrack ...

Every point you have made has been shown to be not simply false, but hilariously, can't.make.this.shit.up wrong.
How is this sidetracking?
As far as banning cash: If it comes to that, you can be certain that bitcoin will be outlawed long before that.

Lets start with my last point then. Why is it hilariously wrong that banks are seriously discussing negative interest rates and banning cash ?

less than one minute of googling comes up with these kinds of articles in mainstream media ..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-interest-rates-could-be-necessary-to-protect-UK-economy-says-Bank-of-England-chief-economist.html?WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21589128

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3329324/Swiss-bank-ABS-hit-savers-negative-rates.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/is-a-cashless-society-really-on-the-cards-8714651.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/denmark-moves-closer-to-a-cashless-society-10231995.html

So why am I hilariously wrong ?