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Author Topic: block halving date  (Read 4033 times)
DarkHyudrA
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December 03, 2015, 12:35:54 PM
 #21

bears in mind that this is an estimation, it will kick-in early than the countdown, not too much early though

hi hamp!!!
if so, you think who price will rise after this date?
and if a lot off miners switch off his networks because they can't earn enough???
what will happen?

i think it will rise early, before the halving will be in play

don't worry about miners, they can take profit, even if the halving was going to enter tomorrow and the price was the same as it is right now

And how are you so sure of that?
I know that most miners are big players, still, having 50% of the reward is a big drop.

because it is already happening  Grin, someone is artificially fixing the market in preparation of the halving, and possible swings that may occur

even litecoin halving did produced an increase, which one quite good(x10 almost), i'm expecting a similiar scenario minus the x10, but more along the line of a return to 1k or around it

I'm not so sure of that...
Last halving the price was stable for a while, I mean a few months, before anyting changed.
I don't know if they saved their last 50BTC rewards before selling or what, but truth be told that this is very uncertain on what will happen to the market.

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December 03, 2015, 01:05:14 PM
 #22

bears in mind that this is an estimation, it will kick-in early than the countdown, not too much early though

hi hamp!!!
if so, you think who price will rise after this date?
and if a lot off miners switch off his networks because they can't earn enough???
what will happen?

i think it will rise early, before the halving will be in play

don't worry about miners, they can take profit, even if the halving was going to enter tomorrow and the price was the same as it is right now

And how are you so sure of that?
I know that most miners are big players, still, having 50% of the reward is a big drop.

because it is already happening  Grin, someone is artificially fixing the market in preparation of the halving, and possible swings that may occur

even litecoin halving did produced an increase, which one quite good(x10 almost), i'm expecting a similiar scenario minus the x10, but more along the line of a return to 1k or around it

Hasn't the Litecoin halving coincided with the scammer that ran a ponzi scheme in China? I always thought that was the reason that we have seen that crazy price increase this summer in Litecoin, the same price increase that has followed with the exactly the same dump.
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December 03, 2015, 01:09:01 PM
 #23

It will happen at block 420000. Bitcoin tries to maintain it's block frequency at an average of 10 minutes in the long term but due to increase in hashrate during the midst of the difficulty term, it is impossible for it to be at 10 minutes. However, we can more or less tell where it is. It will happen at approximately 2016-07-22 UTC. Of course, if the blocks gets delayed at 419999 due to varience, it would be pushed back slightly.
with the block reward halfing pretty soon ( in like 8 months), i wonder when we are going to start seeing changes in price influenced by the halfing
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December 03, 2015, 01:16:57 PM
 #24

It will happen at block 420000. Bitcoin tries to maintain it's block frequency at an average of 10 minutes in the long term but due to increase in hashrate during the midst of the difficulty term, it is impossible for it to be at 10 minutes. However, we can more or less tell where it is. It will happen at approximately 2016-07-22 UTC. Of course, if the blocks gets delayed at 419999 due to varience, it would be pushed back slightly.
with the block reward halfing pretty soon ( in like 8 months), i wonder when we are going to start seeing changes in price influenced by the halfing

It's something we simply can't predict. It can happen tomorrow, or we can start seeing the block halving bull run starts 1 or 2 months before the actual halving day. I am fairly sure we are already slowly going up due to the comming block halving. It's only waiting for the extreme bull run that can happen at any time.

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December 03, 2015, 01:23:49 PM
 #25

Can anyone gibe me a date for the block halving please? Also is it 100% guaranteed to happen at this time?



check out this post maybe helpful:

Bitcoin Futures Guide - The Bitcoin Halvening: What Is It and What Will Its Effect on Price Be?

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitcoin-blog/the-bitcoin-halvening-what-is-it-and-what-will-its-effects-on-price-be

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December 03, 2015, 01:24:00 PM
 #26

If bitcoin halving doesn't happen on exact date than how bitcoin clock calculate the exact date 2016-07-22? Quite confusing to understand this one. It is supposed to happen on july next year as i know from long time ago.



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December 03, 2015, 01:35:00 PM
 #27

I did not know there were still so many months to go. I understood it is a thing that you cannot tell precisely, so I did not care very much.

Thanks to all you guys for instructing us.

I expect the effects to happen 3-4 months away from the halving.

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December 03, 2015, 01:46:56 PM
 #28

I did not know there were still so many months to go. I understood it is a thing that you cannot tell precisely, so I did not care very much.

Thanks to all you guys for instructing us.

I expect the effects to happen 3-4 months away from the halving.
I think the effect is already happening now, look at the price of Bitcoin, it got increased pretty significantly Wink
I can't imagine the price when the halving happens Tongue
I hope we can at least touch $800 Roll Eyes


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December 03, 2015, 02:03:25 PM
 #29

If bitcoin halving doesn't happen on exact date than how bitcoin clock calculate the exact date 2016-07-22? Quite confusing to understand this one. It is supposed to happen on july next year as i know from long time ago.
The block intervals is on average, 10minutes if the hashrate does not increase. However, the hashrate would probably increase for every difficulty period right now and the blocks will be slightly faster. Overtime, the estimated time will decrease due to the shorter block intervals during each difficulty periods. The estimator probably uses 10 minutes and multiply it by the blocks left. It would adjust itself automatically if the blocks become faster or slower suddenly I believe.














 

 

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DarkHyudrA
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December 03, 2015, 03:06:00 PM
 #30

If bitcoin halving doesn't happen on exact date than how bitcoin clock calculate the exact date 2016-07-22? Quite confusing to understand this one. It is supposed to happen on july next year as i know from long time ago.
However, the hashrate would probably increase for every difficulty period right now and the blocks will be slightly faster. Overtime, the estimated time will decrease due to the shorter block intervals during each difficulty periods.

The truth is, the average is 10 minutes, but its common to have block solved in like 1 minute.
And it's a matter of "luck", not because the total hashrate increased.

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December 03, 2015, 03:58:56 PM
 #31

I guess we will see a rise in the price a little back before the halving... If you take the Litecoin halving has an example, we can predict that the price will rise before the halving and probably go down a bit after. Now, to what price will we see it rise, I can't say...

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December 03, 2015, 04:30:52 PM
 #32

If bitcoin halving doesn't happen on exact date than how bitcoin clock calculate the exact date 2016-07-22? Quite confusing to understand this one. It is supposed to happen on july next year as i know from long time ago.
However, the hashrate would probably increase for every difficulty period right now and the blocks will be slightly faster. Overtime, the estimated time will decrease due to the shorter block intervals during each difficulty periods.

The truth is, the average is 10 minutes, but its common to have block solved in like 1 minute.
And it's a matter of "luck", not because the total hashrate increased.
It's actually variance. In the long run, without huge difficulty/hashrate increases, we are likely to see close to 10 minutes per block especially when we're talking about a block that's close to a year away. But yes, hashrate is actually increasing right now since its winter in some countries and the price increase.














 

 

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December 03, 2015, 08:29:46 PM
 #33

If bitcoin halving doesn't happen on exact date than how bitcoin clock calculate the exact date 2016-07-22? Quite confusing to understand this one. It is supposed to happen on july next year as i know from long time ago.
However, the hashrate would probably increase for every difficulty period right now and the blocks will be slightly faster. Overtime, the estimated time will decrease due to the shorter block intervals during each difficulty periods.

The truth is, the average is 10 minutes, but its common to have block solved in like 1 minute.
And it's a matter of "luck", not because the total hashrate increased.

If you have blocks solved in 1 minute, that can last only for at max 2 weeks, because then difficulty calibration kicks in.

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December 04, 2015, 02:52:45 AM
 #34

The halving will occur on the 420000th block. It is not certain what day, as some blocks are mined a minute apart, some block are mined over an hour apart. If I remember correctly, we are about 2-5 months from the halving.



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December 04, 2015, 03:21:35 AM
 #35

Not so sure given how much everybody expects bitcoin to pump that it actually will..

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December 04, 2015, 08:57:27 AM
 #36

If bitcoin halving doesn't happen on exact date than how bitcoin clock calculate the exact date 2016-07-22? Quite confusing to understand this one. It is supposed to happen on july next year as i know from long time ago.
However, the hashrate would probably increase for every difficulty period right now and the blocks will be slightly faster. Overtime, the estimated time will decrease due to the shorter block intervals during each difficulty periods.

The truth is, the average is 10 minutes, but its common to have block solved in like 1 minute.
And it's a matter of "luck", not because the total hashrate increased.

If you have blocks solved in 1 minute, that can last only for at max 2 weeks, because then difficulty calibration kicks in.
If blocks are 1 minute apart, the difficulty adjustment will be in 1.4days. The difficulty adjustments is based on number of blocks, not time.














 

 

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December 04, 2015, 09:02:33 AM
 #37

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December 04, 2015, 09:09:11 AM
 #38

The halving will occur on the 420000th block. It is not certain what day, as some blocks are mined a minute apart, some block are mined over an hour apart. If I remember correctly, we are about 2-5 months from the halving.

Apply some basic math. We are at block 386,654 so we are 33,346 blocks away from halving. That is more like 7.7 months away, not 2-5. Even with the skew caused by a rising hashrate I doubt we will ever reach it in 2 months.
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December 04, 2015, 09:37:59 AM
 #39

Not so sure given how much everybody expects bitcoin to pump that it actually will..

This. Markets don't usually do what people expects from them. They tend to do the opposite, actually.


Even with the skew caused by a rising hashrate I doubt we will ever reach it in 2 months.

By averaging the last 20 diff changes, today I'm getting an estimated halving date of 2016-07-17, 5 days earlier than bitcoinclock.

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December 04, 2015, 10:09:43 AM
 #40

There is really no way to predict when the halving is going to happen. There needs to be another around 830,000 more bitcoins mined before the halving happens. So most people's prediction is around another 230 more days before halving happens. When it does happen, miners will only be paid 12.5 bitcoin if they find the block.
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