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Author Topic: block halving date  (Read 4053 times)
GODLIKE
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December 08, 2015, 02:39:43 PM
 #61

There's no specific date, as the halving roll occur on a certain block number, and blocks are not mined exactly the same time apart, some are seconds apart. The most accurate estimate we have right now is somewhere between March and July 2016.

However, as you can have a block mined seconds apart from another one, you can equally have a block that will require more time later on.
The AVERAGE TIME to mine a block is calibrated with each difficulty adjustment, you can't escape that.

On this basis, we can take the overall number of blocks generated up to now and calculate the average time of coin mining.
As you can see here, the difficulty adjustment doesn't mistake: the production is linear, no matter how much hashing power has been put into the system.
So the July estimate is pretty close, surely not by the day, but also surely won't bee one or two weeks earlier than the estimated day.

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December 08, 2015, 11:10:48 PM
 #62

if everyone expects a price surge its guaranteed to plummet right? lol

no, everyone was expecting it for litecoin and it happened, with bitcoin it's even more sure that it will happen

the real question is when?

On the block number 420000, the halving will occur from current 25BTC to 12.5BTC generation.
Litecoin almost got 6 fold surge at the time of it's halving. I too believe bitcoin prices also will go to unimaginable levels on this halving.

Wishful thinking !

When litecoin halved nothing actually happened. The pump happened as a result of a chinese ponzi scheme.

This is true actually. The biggest pump in Litecoin has happened in July and was fueled by the Chinese manipulator. Threads and even YouTube videos about this are everywhere.

We can't compare Litecoin halving and Bitcoin halving though! Differences between these two are huge!
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December 09, 2015, 01:02:38 AM
 #63

That will be amazing to see how price will get bigger Smiley much bigger with this one event.... and in next 4 years another halving Cheesy
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January 11, 2016, 11:19:20 AM
 #64

That will be amazing to see how price will get bigger Smiley much bigger with this one event.... and in next 4 years another halving Cheesy
GoGo Bitcoin!!

This year' halving effect will be much bigger than next one as the existing bitcoin number will be much bigger proportionally.
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February 16, 2016, 03:55:46 PM
 #65

seams like it moved to JUNE!!! WTF is that all about. 2 months difference?
GODLIKE
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February 16, 2016, 04:37:42 PM
 #66

That will be amazing to see how price will get bigger Smiley much bigger with this one event.... and in next 4 years another halving Cheesy
GoGo Bitcoin!!

This year' halving effect will be much bigger than next one as the existing bitcoin number will be much bigger proportionally.

I would say the opposite: there's ALREADY many BTC in circulation, AND we seem to have hit a wall into the mainstream that takes a bit of time to go down.
So the question is: will people want to pay more for one BTC?
My answer is no. If they would, they did already.

Halving of the reward doesn't say anything to the upcoming mainstream user, and they will only pay what they think it's worth it.

My forecast is that when the halve will come, miners will raise the price to stay afloat.
BUT then people won't pay that much more.
Now, the only problem here is if miners are already earning much more than a Bitcoin is worth.
If they do, then no problem.
If they don't, then some inevitably will close the shop.

And then, we will have a drop in value instead than an increase, because when the community will see that people are NOT eager to pay much more than the actual price, there will be a fall of reputation.
Many mining companies will close because of this and there will be a mini-collapse of Bitcoin this year because of this.

THEN in the future the value will rise again, but I wouldn't expect it anytime this year.

This will allow for a REDISTRIBUTION of Bitcoin nodes. Part of Bitcoin philosophy.

I HOPE I am wrong, but this is my feeling at the moment.

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February 16, 2016, 04:40:21 PM
 #67

seams like it moved to JUNE!!! WTF is that all about. 2 months difference?
What are you talking about? From what I could tell halving was always expected to hit in July. It will hit exactly at 420.000 blocks
Current Block count: 398727   Expected reward drop: 2016-07-13 05:06:33 UTC (21 weeks, 17 hours, 30 minutes)

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February 16, 2016, 04:46:15 PM
 #68

Slightly concerning the price won't rise as high as it should as a result of the halving due to all of this potential HF FUD.

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February 16, 2016, 04:49:42 PM
 #69

Slightly concerning the price won't rise as high as it should as a result of the halving due to all of this potential HF FUD.


I seen many coins reach the block halving and the price remains the same lol

Maybe the build up to it will cause a pump but after that then no not at all! lol
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February 16, 2016, 05:19:58 PM
 #70

Slightly concerning the price won't rise as high as it should as a result of the halving due to all of this potential HF FUD.

I think you might be right.  For some reason I am starting to feel the rise before halving will be lackluster.  If Bitcoin avoids bad press it should be stable at least.

I love Bitcoin
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February 16, 2016, 05:35:12 PM
 #71

Could it be that since people know about the halving in advance, the price has adjusted before hand?

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February 16, 2016, 06:25:19 PM
 #72

Some great sites have been posted. Make sure to check them out. This forum is also a huge wealth of information. We've been on here for years Smiley

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February 16, 2016, 06:30:04 PM
 #73

Could it be that since people know about the halving in advance, the price has adjusted before hand?

It's sure that the big pump that everyone is expecting will not happen EXACTLY during the halving, let alone at the exact expected day, it will happen before or later, but within a reasonable margin, it's not going to be exact, so yes, things are starting moving now and will not stop, the price rise will be smooth until FOMO explodes this summer given the amount of good news being too much to justify not owning any Bitcoin.

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February 16, 2016, 09:12:33 PM
 #74

That will be amazing to see how price will get bigger Smiley much bigger with this one event.... and in next 4 years another halving Cheesy
GoGo Bitcoin!!

This year' halving effect will be much bigger than next one as the existing bitcoin number will be much bigger proportionally.

Yeah but with like 70% of bitcoin mined already i dont think it matters much.  As in every halving will likely create a massive great bubble until we have found out the true value of the bitcoin network.  Interesting times ahead though for sure.
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February 19, 2016, 11:57:08 AM
 #75

That will be amazing to see how price will get bigger Smiley much bigger with this one event.... and in next 4 years another halving Cheesy
GoGo Bitcoin!!

This year' halving effect will be much bigger than next one as the existing bitcoin number will be much bigger proportionally.

Yeah but with like 70% of bitcoin mined already i dont think it matters much.  As in every halving will likely create a massive great bubble until we have found out the true value of the bitcoin network.  Interesting times ahead though for sure.

For this and next halving, there is some kind of halving effect. But for the one in 2024, the effect will be every small.
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February 19, 2016, 12:04:54 PM
 #76

That will be amazing to see how price will get bigger Smiley much bigger with this one event.... and in next 4 years another halving Cheesy
GoGo Bitcoin!!

This year' halving effect will be much bigger than next one as the existing bitcoin number will be much bigger proportionally.

Yeah but with like 70% of bitcoin mined already i dont think it matters much.  As in every halving will likely create a massive great bubble until we have found out the true value of the bitcoin network.  Interesting times ahead though for sure.

For this and next halving, there is some kind of halving effect. But for the one in 2024, the effect will be every small.
How can you know the effect is very small on 2024 are you from the future we dont even know what will happen after this incoming halving.

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February 19, 2016, 12:06:25 PM
 #77

a few months longer block halving occurs. we just wait a short time. get ready to get a higher quality bitcoin.

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February 19, 2016, 05:04:42 PM
 #78

The first impact of the halving made bitcoin jump from the 250 to 400 dollars,i dont know if with becoming close the time to happen speculation will affect bitcoin value again and to bigger ammounts then 500 dollars.
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February 19, 2016, 06:18:05 PM
 #79

That will be amazing to see how price will get bigger Smiley much bigger with this one event.... and in next 4 years another halving Cheesy
GoGo Bitcoin!!

This year' halving effect will be much bigger than next one as the existing bitcoin number will be much bigger proportionally.

Yeah but with like 70% of bitcoin mined already i dont think it matters much.  As in every halving will likely create a massive great bubble until we have found out the true value of the bitcoin network.  Interesting times ahead though for sure.

For this and next halving, there is some kind of halving effect. But for the one in 2024, the effect will be every small.

you mean 2028, because the reward will be around 1, also in line with the prediction of satoshi

but bears in mind that the mined coins, do not actually have all that pressure on the market, miners are not selling 100% of their coins, i can argue they are not even selling 50%, since they don't need that much to cover their bills
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February 19, 2016, 08:47:27 PM
 #80

what was the date of the previous halving?
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