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Author Topic: Setting up new diff thread Dec 6 to Dec 20 picks closed.  (Read 8765 times)
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philipma1957
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December 06, 2015, 11:58:26 PM
 #1

I moved the other thread one due to an error (forgot self mod)

We had a rollover

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1260927.msg13169444#msg13169444

Diff was 8.77%  he was correct!


 So we are now offering the largest 'free' prize ever 0.316 btc  and I am tossing in a sidehack-novac compac usb stick

 The picks open at block 600 made :

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   86,890,789,560 (+9.85%)


Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 13.6 days    at 1416 left or 600 made we start


Hashrate(?):   582,755,708 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:  



and close at block 1200 made.


Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   86,890,789,560 (+9.85%)
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 13.6 days At 816 left or 1200 made we stop.
Hashrate(?):   582,755,708 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:  



make your pick  in .1 slots

example:

+2.1 =  philipma1957  this means I would win from 2.10 to 2.19

please make your picks easy to enter

+8.8    = tss     is easy to click and drag  please do it this way


philipma1957   I would like +2.1        is more work to put in place. please don't write your pick this way



Just a note in the last two adjustments  we added 95 ph  that is a lot of s-7's and avalon 6's

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December 07, 2015, 01:34:44 AM
 #2

the last 2 diff ajust were pretty big. Lets hope this one will be less.  Wink

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December 07, 2015, 03:25:48 AM
 #3

the last 2 diff ajust were pretty big. Lets hope this one will be less.  Wink

well some quick math shows we added about 100 ph .

pretend it was all at .25watts per gh.

the other 470 ph before these jumps  was not a .50 watt average as some s-3's s 4's were mining so say :


470 ph of the network is doing .6watts 

100 ph of the network is doing .25 watts ----------------- there is a lot of incentive to go to .25 watt gear

a .25 watt s-7 paying 9 cents beats almost all .50 watt miners at they need to be down around 4.3 cents  not 4.5 cents since  space and wiring costs are higher.

one could argue we could add 100 ph in 1 month so why not add 100 ph the next month.

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December 07, 2015, 04:03:37 AM
 #4

Thats so crazy, it's something like an additional 20'000 S7 on the network for 100 ph rounding 5 th per s7.  So we could by this logic add another 20'000 unit for December  Shocked Shocked Shocked or something.  I think the squeeze is really coming pretty hard as far as mining goes and we have good prices right now but if price falls ouch were going to be hurting.  But even the jump in price won't compensate for these gains
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December 07, 2015, 04:13:01 AM
 #5

Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

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December 07, 2015, 05:27:14 AM
 #6

Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s


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December 07, 2015, 05:36:10 AM
 #7

Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s

Yeah, you could essentially double that 450 PH/s within the same space/power/cooling requirements. But man that's a lot of money to spend before halving. Not everyone is going to take that risk.

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December 07, 2015, 06:42:51 AM
 #8

Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s

Yeah, you could essentially double that 450 PH/s within the same space/power/cooling requirements. But man that's a lot of money to spend before halving. Not everyone is going to take that risk.
Funny that halving could come quite sooner than mid summer if we keep up this crazy jump in difficulty. Hopefully we won't but it has been larger than it has been in a long time.

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December 07, 2015, 01:43:49 PM
 #9

Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s

Yeah, you could essentially double that 450 PH/s within the same space/power/cooling requirements. But man that's a lot of money to spend before halving. Not everyone is going to take that risk.
Funny that halving could come quite sooner than mid summer if we keep up this crazy jump in difficulty. Hopefully we won't but it has been larger than it has been in a long time.

I did a few calculations on that.  July 1 to 15 seem more likely  then July 16 to 31.

 If you do 7% every time it takes 13 days not 14

 So 14 or 15  adjustments  all a day shore mean we could move up 14 to 15 days.

But 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 =  1.606  and that is 7 adjustments not 14   so 1.606 x 1.606 =

2.58  which would mean diff would be 200 and gear hashing would be 1500ph

I frankly think those two numbers can not be  done.  I could see a diff of 100 to 110 and gear at 725ph to 750ph.

 If price holds over 400 or 500




However    we are still going up ,  boy  of boy  a  price crash to 180 like last Jan would be very interesting.

It would make all gear other then the s-7 and avalon 6  losing gear unless you have 8 cent power or better.

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December 07, 2015, 02:04:44 PM
 #10

However    we are still going up ,  boy  of boy  a  price crash to 180 like last Jan would be very interesting.

It would make all gear other then the s-7 and avalon 6  losing gear unless you have 8 cent power or better.

I was thinking along those lines yesterday... basically that would be the only reasonable way for me to ROI on Batch 1 S7 (in BTC terms). The one that I paid 8 BTC for. Arghhhhhh...

On the bright side, Batch 6 at 4 BTC is probably going to break even and might even make a coin or two if the resale value holds up.

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December 07, 2015, 04:43:46 PM
 #11

Price seems to be setting in 390's.  Which is not to bad at all. I still want to see 400 +.

Were less then 5 dollars from it but I'm guessing there are some sell walls to break through.  Also it's still very early but here is bit wisdom.
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December 07, 2015, 04:52:45 PM
 #12

So what are you Guys thoughts on how much of this increase is S7 and early Days Avalon6 based and to what degree we are beginning to see SP50 & Bitfury 16nm deployment, or.... is all that yet to come? I guess also at the moment, with the price the way it is, if farms have the space & power there will be very little old stuff being turned off which all adds up?

Rich

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December 07, 2015, 06:02:25 PM
 #13

So what are you Guys thoughts on how much of this increase is S7 and early Days Avalon6 based and to what degree we are beginning to see SP50 & Bitfury 16nm deployment, or.... is all that yet to come? I guess also at the moment, with the price the way it is, if farms have the space & power there will be very little old stuff being turned off which all adds up?

Rich

Well we moved more then 130ph

Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s  My s-7 and batch 1 s-7s  started coming in this jump

Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s

So most of it is s-7  I did look at s-7 btc addy on bitmaintech and I am well over 7000 s-7's based on btc deposits  so that is 35ph out in the open.

My readings and other info from posts and links  show over 5ph in  avalon6's  So that is easy 40ph  far under the 131ph added.

So 2x the 40ph = 80 ph   and I think 80 ph is too high for s-7+ avalon6  that leaves us 51ph 'missing'  .  I have to believe some is Bitfury + Sp50.

I would love to know if the sp50 does well under .2 watts as claimed.

Still even with 131 ph at highest efficiency 435 ph is not very high  we will go up.

 I do want:
260ph new
435ph old

around 700 total.

I am lazy but looking fast current prices of 390 usd would support  100 diff / 725ph.

a  1150 th machine with .51 watts the s-5 makes 20 usd a month at a diff of 100 a price of 390usd and power at 10 cents

So we certainly could approach  a diff of 100 and hash rate of 725ph in the early spring if price stays at 390 usd.

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December 07, 2015, 07:19:45 PM
 #14

I can't believe the amount of hardware coming online, it's amazing.  I expected one large-ish jump but we've had several now and there's no immediate sign of slowing down.

Early spring will be very interesting to see if we are at the 100G diff threshold and on the cusp of the halving, I can't wait to watch that roller coaster.
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December 07, 2015, 07:41:41 PM
 #15

Yes even with the new diff increase we are still at +5-6% for the day. Keeps going up and up.

Do you know when Bitmain will stop building the S7? I assume they only ordered a limited amount of the S7 ASIC chip. Once they run out, its going to cost millions to manufacteur more.

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December 07, 2015, 08:22:39 PM
 #16

Yes even with the new diff increase we are still at +5-6% for the day. Keeps going up and up.

Do you know when Bitmain will stop building the S7? I assume they only ordered a limited amount of the S7 ASIC chip. Once they run out, its going to cost millions to manufacteur more.

yeah that would be a nice piece of info to have. 


@ bitmaintech feel free to let me know how many more you will build.

And while you are at it  please put aside 2000 chips for sidehack.

Thank you sirs Smiley



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December 07, 2015, 08:40:46 PM
 #17

Yes even with the new diff increase we are still at +5-6% for the day. Keeps going up and up.

Do you know when Bitmain will stop building the S7? I assume they only ordered a limited amount of the S7 ASIC chip. Once they run out, its going to cost millions to manufacteur more.

yeah that would be a nice piece of info to have. 


@ bitmaintech feel free to let me know how many more you will build.

And while you are at it  please put aside 2000 chips for sidehack.

Thank you sirs Smiley




Yeah !! please !! Tongue
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December 07, 2015, 10:21:06 PM
 #18

i dont think bitmain expected these kind of sales.. i know i didnt.  that said im sure they will have an endless supply of chips ready for production as long as the btc keeps flowing in.  i may be a bit off but 1 btc per th is more expensive than miners cost 12 months ago.  correct me if im wrong.
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December 07, 2015, 10:32:02 PM
 #19

What is the bitmain purchase BTC address again so we can calculate how many units of S7 were sold?

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December 08, 2015, 12:21:08 AM
 #20

Yes even with the new diff increase we are still at +5-6% for the day. Keeps going up and up.

Do you know when Bitmain will stop building the S7? I assume they only ordered a limited amount of the S7 ASIC chip. Once they run out, its going to cost millions to manufacteur more.

yeah that would be a nice piece of info to have. 


@ bitmaintech feel free to let me know how many more you will build.

And while you are at it  please put aside 2000 chips for sidehack.

Thank you sirs Smiley


Yeah !! please !! Tongue

I think very wishful thinking on getting him some chips.  I'm actually surprised he got some on first round.  It would be great as I would love a POD out of some new chip. But i think scale is small where they can just as easy put it in their own machines and make more money chances are.

So I don't expect chip sales unless you show up with a lot of cash.    So no small order, order a batch and then they would do it chances are... but that is a lot of money to tie up.  And for community to round up that kinda cash not easy.

I just hope this week difficulty slows down a little bit.   I really want those 5 percents again, I liked those changes much better.
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